Group l racing returns to Flemington this Saturday, with the Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) attracting a high class field. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Black Caviar Lightning 🏆: View the Field for the Black Caviar Lightning
Race 1. (12:30) The Glorious Goodwood Handicap 1600m
5 Exasperate (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is a few weeks between runs for Matty Brown since surprising many with a win from the back at Caulfield. Given he was an unexpected winner, the form was going to be suspect, but it’s turned out okay with three subsequent winners. Tick over jumpout was good and should land box seat from the gate.
8 Mount Tabora (Bet Now: $3.40 TOP ODDS) is racing really well this time in for the Snowden camp. Impressive win two back at Sandown before racing over the mile at Caulfield three weeks ago where he tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off when bloused late by Sure Knee. Getting bloused by that horse is a concern, but overall, this guy is racing in career best form.
I think 7 Sunday Pray (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) can run a bold race at odds here in the opener. John Moloney trains this gelding, who last raced at the Valley back on January 24 when on speed and fighting on strongly to run second to Eureka Street. Has had the little break between runs, gets down to 52kg and he should get a very soft lead. Rail true at Flemington, on speed is certainly no disadvantage early on in the card.
Race 2. (13:05) Furphy Ale Trophy 1600m
2 Fabric (Bet Now: $2.10 TOP ODDS) looks a good bet here. Danny O’Brien trains this mare, who has had two runs back from a break and each run has had merit. Resumed over 1400m here off one jumpout and just ran out of puff late. Remained at 1400m next time out at Caulfield and was good in defeat behind Great Duchess. Up to 1600m looks perfect, back at home, on firmer footing, keen on her chances.
9 Goldifox (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS) is flying for Team Corstens. Impressive win here two back before going to Sandown where it was a somewhat tough day to make up ground and they were running fast time. She really finished her race off nicely behind The Closer, who has won again since. Up to the mile, small field, she’s hard to beat.
The one at odds that I could entertain is 10 Global Sanction (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS). On paper, her first up run at Sandown behind Minyinga was ordinary, but considering that mare led throughout and ran 32.8 for her last 600m, Global Sanction would have had to run sub 32…on top class horses can reel that sort of split. Up to the mile, right down in the weights, she’s a knockout chance.
Race 3. (13:40) Talindert Stakes 1100m
I’ll go the way of 3 Mr Cashman (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) for Patrick Payne. This colt debuted at the Valley back on December 28 and admittedly things did fall into place for him, but he still had to take advantage of it and did so impressively under a lovely ride from Billy Egan. Been given a let up and the tick over trial at Cranbourne last Tuesday was quite good.
14 Award Winner (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a key threat for me. This Anthony Freedman trained filly ran fifth in the Preview behind A Beautiful Knight but her run was full of merit I feel given she was back and wide throughout. That effort just told late but outside the winner, her run was the best of the race IMO. If she can get better luck this time around and sit a touch closer, she’s hard to beat for sure.
I would rate 2 Nitrous (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) as a second tier, maybe even third tier, 2YO from Sydney for Team Snowden, but perhaps that might be good enough to take this out. Comes through the Canonbury at Randwick where he was a bit keen on speed and couldn’t finish it off when fourth to Prague. Interesting to see how he goes here because he’s been up a while.
Race 4. (14:15) York Racecourse Ebor Trophy 2000m
8 Skelm (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) doesn’t look to be going backwards at all so I’m in his corner here. He ran over 1800m at Flemington a few weeks back and was outstanding in defeat from the back given those in front dominated proceedings and it wasn’t set up for the closers. Has since had a jumpout at Terang last week and was given a good hitout without the blinkers. Think he’ll only run well.
10 Big Sur (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is ticking over quite nicely I feel. Real eye catcher two back at Pakenham before going to Caulfield where he loomed to win when presented in the straight, but he couldn’t quicken well enough on the wet track when fifth to Just Benjamin. Back on top of the ground and up to 2000m, he’s a live threat here for sure.
4 Royal Music (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) is working up to a win I feel. Was good from the back when resuming at Warrnambool over 1700m before stepping back to the mile and working home okay at the Valley behind Eureka Street. Now out to a more ideal trip given two of his four career wins have come at 2000m. Knockout chance at odds.
Race 5. (14:50) CS Hayes Stakes 1400m
I’m on the bandwagon well and truly when it comes to 1 Catalyst (Bet Now: $2.90) and I’m confident he can make a big statement here en route to the Guineas. His win on Karaka Day at Ellerslie was outstanding given he was tardy to begin with and had to come from the back but still did it with relative ease and smashed the clock late splits wise. He’s a star and confident he measures up.
4 Dalasan (Bet Now: $6.00) has to be forgiven for the resumption two weeks ago in the Manfred at Caulfield. Yes, he was tardy away, but IMO, it was a very negative ride from Williams. That, and I’m not sure the horse was 100% happy on the wet ground. Got going late and was very good, suggesting 1400m+ on a bigger will suit, and that’s the set up he gets here.
Not dismissing 6 Spend (Bet Now: $34.00) off one run. His recent Flemington jumpout suggested he would need the hitout when resuming in the Manfred and that’s how it panned out. He was held, but far from disgraced behind Super Seth. Does need to improve big time to win, but he’s in the right stable and gets a much better scenario this time around.
Race 6. (15:25) Royal Ascot Handicap 1200m
9 Golden Halo (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Daniel Bowman trained mare who was kept very safe in betting when resuming over 1100m at Caulfield three weeks ago and really liked the way she closed her race off when a close up third to the in form News Girl, beaten just under two lengths. Like her up to 1200m and though harder here, she has showed good talent in the past to suggest she can measure up, and News Girl franked that form last Saturday when a narrow second to Sylvia’s Mother. Hard to beat.
6 Taniko (Bet Now: $5.00) has a booming finish on her and I think she gets the right set up to use that here. This mare hasn’t raced since January 11 at Randwick where I was quite keen on her but the race shape just didn’t suit her at all behind Southern Lad. Looks to be good speed here, she can sit back and at her best, she can rattle off a sub 33 for the final 600m, which is good enough to beat these.
3 Prezado (Bet Now: $10.00) is a definite improver back at home. The Ellerton/Zahra stable trains this gelding, who resumed in the WJ Adams two weeks ago at Caulfield and wasn’t too bad in defeat behind Jungle Edge in a race where the race shape wasn’t really ideal for him. Loves racing down the straight and back on firmer footing, he’s a leading chance.
Race 7. (16:10) Black Caviar Lightning 1000m
It’s hard to get away from 2 Nature Strip (Bet Now: $1.45). Chris Waller is a master at getting a troubled horse to settle better, and this bloke is the pin up for that. He’s getting better and better at harnessing his energy, as we saw when he spanked them in the VRC Sprint Classic. Spelled soon after and his two trials have been outstanding. He’s ready to rock and roll.
Took a slice of $3.50 for 1 Redzel (Bet Now: $7.00) to place a few weeks ago so my eyes will be on him to run top three. If he’s ever going to win another major, I think it’s here because he does seem very effective at 1000m and is an absolute bomb when produced fresh. Trials leading in have been good and smashed the clock in his trial win last week. He’ll run a beauty.
4 Gytrash (Bet Now: $14.00) is one of the bigger queries here. Talented animal for Gordon Richards that resumes, having not raced since the early part of the Spring at Caulfield when luckless behind Crystal Dreamer before being found to be injured and was given a good spell. Worked well between races in Adelaide recently and he showed enough to suggest he can measure up at Group l level. Whether that’s here, I’m not 100% sure.
Race 8. (16:50) The Vanity 1400m
I think 7 Lunar Light (Bet Now: $13.00) can measure up here for Will Clarken, who rarely gets it wrong when he brings one over from Adelaide. This girl is 3/3 this time in, all of which have come over 1200m and what I’ve liked about the last two wins is that she’s really savaged the line, suggesting 1400m will be perfect. Yes, harder here, but does no work from the gate, hard fit, in form…she’s worth a throw at the stumps.
9 Katalin (Bet Now: $2.35) does look very much an above average filly for James Cummings that is a definite query here. Has won 2/2 to start her career, the latest coming over 1400m at Newcastle where she overcame difficulties but her class really stood out late and won like a potential Stakes class horse. Good test here, but think she measures up.
4 Parmie (Bet Now: $8.50) has been kept on ice for the Ellerton/Zahra stable since racing over 1400m at Caulfield back on January 4 where she was a little unlucky not to win, but putting that mainly down to the sweet steer from Symons on Mrs Beckham. Trial win at Cranbourne was quite good. Just hope for her supporters that she gets clear air from the outset.
Race 9. (17:30) HKJC Trophy 1400m
2 Admiral’s Joker (Bet Now: $5.50) is an absolute beauty for Kylie Vella that is on the seven day back up after resuming in the Rubiton last Saturday in what was a very fast run race, with the winner Anaheed giving the track record a nudge. This guy got back and worked home strongly. Has won on the seven day back up before and up to 1400m is a big tick.
1 Streets Of Avalon (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Shane Nicholls trained gelding that had good market support when resuming in the John Dillon at Caulfield three weeks ago where he was near the speed and battled away well in defeat behind Morvada, but considering the winner went a tick over 33 for the final 600m, Streets Of Avalon couldn’t dash that quick. More suited here and is a leading chance.
9 Galaxy Raider (Bet Now: $21.00) currently sits at #12 in the All Star Mile leaderboard, so interesting to see what he does here. Grahame Begg has his team flying at the moment, this guy included. Broke a run of outs over the mile here five weeks ago in impressive fashion from off the pace. Remains down in the weights and a truly run 1400m should suit.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Admiral’s Joker
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Fabric
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 7 Lunar Light
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 6, 9, 10
Leg Two: 2
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 7, 9
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 9
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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