14/9/2013 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes day

Moonee Valley racecourse will host Victoria’s metropolitan meeting on Saturday for Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes day were Fiorente and Super Cool fight for favouritism in the race. The other headline act on the day is Atlantic Jewel going for nine straight victories in the Stocks Stakes.

The current track condition is a Dead track and with some light rain in Melbourne over the next 24 hours it’s likely we will be racing on a similar track condition to what it is now.

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Race One: Sportingbet Best Tote Plate 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Za Moulin Rouge won well on debut in SA before being thrown in the deep end in the McNeil Stakes when running last. She finds a much easier race here and im expecting to bounce back from that loss with a dominant win here at good odds of $4.80.
Don’t Back Me: Godiva Rock ran well at her two starts last preparation before coming back as a short priced favourite and was well beaten at Sale. Not sure she has come back as a 3yo and im willing to risk her here at the odds.
Big Danger: May’s Dream hit the line well last start for what was a dominating win in a decent race. Will go back from the wide barrier and with good speed on in the race will be hitting the line well late.
Roughie: So Bella Arella has had three starts without a win but each one of her starts she showed plenty of talent and this isn’t a strong city race so she will again be competitive at double figure odds.

$250 Za Moulin Rouge Free Bet

Race Two: F Vitale & Sons Hcp 1500m Form Guide

Back Me: Orion had his first start in Australia in the McNeil Stakes were he went back and hit the line well despite running sixth of seven. He will improve with the extra distance here and there looks to be more speed which will suit him and at $6 looks great value in a very winnable race.
Don’t Back Me: Lannister won his first race last start and despite it being by a big margin it was in a much weaker race and on a slow track. I was surprised he opened so short in the market and im happy to risk him on Saturday.
Big Danger: Benchi Pegasus has had two career starts for a second and a win with both coming on a rain affected ground. I think he will be better suited on top of the ground and looks a horse with plenty of ability and this looks a very winnable race for him.
Roughie: Celeritas is likely to jump at big odds although she hasn’t been beaten far in much better races than some of her competition are coming out of so the $16 currently on offer looks great value.

$250 Orion Free Bet

Race Three: 1print.com.au Hcp 2500m Form Guide

Back Me: Anagold will be having a quick back up into Saturday’s race after running at Flemington on the weekend. She has gone close at her last two starts against better company and this looks a very winnable race for her on Saturday and id expect her to start shorter than the $4 on offer at the moment.
Don’t Back Me: Picture Editor has had three starts at Moonee Valley without a placing next to his name he was also unplaced at the distance at his only start and he has a poor record on dead tracks so i am happy to leave him out.
Big Danger: Gotta Take Care won over the same course and distance last start and he can certainly do the same again on Saturday. Finds another winnable race here and he looks the biggest danger to my on top selection.
Roughie: Streets Of Seattle hit the line well when clear last start and showed that he will be looking for a longer distance. He drops weight here and looks a big player in the race at $14.

$250 Anagold Free Bet

Race Four: Top Cut Stocks Stakes 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: Atlantic Jewel will jump as the long odds on favourite in the race and rightfully so. She returned with an easy win in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes, this is a much easier race and i think she is the best horse racing in the country at the moment so will win this in a canter. It is not often that odds of $1.07 look like value.
Don’t Back Me: All other runners outside of Atlantic Jewel unless for the place.
Big Danger: Oasis Bloom wont trouble Atlantic Jewel here although i think she is the horse who will be running into second.
Roughie: Ava’s Delight has been a model of consistency this preparation and she will be so again today. She can’t beat Atlantic Jewel but she can certainly run into the placings.

$250 Atlantic Jewel Free Bet

Race Five: Mitty’s Mcewen Stakes 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Snitzem is a lightly raced galloper who has a ton of early speed. He will jump and take a forward position and first up he will take a lot of running down and the $7 on offer looks good value.
Don’t Back Me: Platelet jumped onto the scene last preparation and has gotten better and better although first up over the 1000m wont suit her and i am willing to risk her on Saturday.
Big Danger: Moment Of Change will likely be the even money favourite come race time and he is the best horse in the race although over the 1000m at Moonee Valley, his running pattern from barrier 1 i think he will need a lot of luck to win thats why he is my Danger and not on top.
Roughie: Freereturn has a very good record at the track and distance having won two from two which makes the $16 on offer look very good value despite the quality of his opposition.

$250 Snitzem Free Bet

Race Six: Dato’tan Chin Nam Stakes 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: Super Cool returned with a very good run in the Memsie Stakes and will improve with the extra distance here. The market has it as match race between him and Fiorente although over the mile at Moonee Valley i think he is much better suited and will have an edge on Saturday.
Don’t Back Me: Fiorente is a very good horse and my early Melbourne Cup selection although i dont think he is suited here. He will go back in the race and from barrier 2 will be stuck on the fence. Having his first start at Moonee Valley is also a concern so at the odds of $3 i think you will be taking a risk backing him.
Big Danger: Ajeeb missed the kick in the Memsie Stakes and was never in it after that. If he can jump away well here he will go to the front and dictate the race. I think he can get some easy sectionals and will prove tough to run down at Moonee Valley.
Roughie: Desert Wizard has had three starts for three wins and he continues to get better and better. Im not sure he has the quality to beat a few here although he is the horse on the way up and could cause a surprise at $15.

$250 Super Cool Free Bet

Race Seven: Jeep Don’t Hold Back Hcp 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: Mourinho looks a massive chance in this race on Saturday so i was surprised to see the $31 on offer for him. Lightly raced galloper who has a very good record at Moonee Valley and has placed twice from two tries over the distance. Runs well second up and looks a big chance at big odds.
Don’t Back Me: The Great Snowman has his first start in Victoria and he failed running eleventh of thirteen. I doubt he can bounce back from that run on Saturday and being in single figures here i will be laving him out.
Big Danger: Lord Durante will need some luck from the wide barrier although he has a very good record over the track and distance which is a massive bonus in this race with a lot of runners not having good records at either. With some luck he will be hard to beat.
Roughie: Alpha Proxima surprised with a big win over this course and distance two starts ago and despite this being a tougher race i think he is one of the major players in this race and he will be in the finish at $11.

$250 Mourinho Free Bet

Race Eight: Drummond Golf Stakes 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: That’s The One missed the jump last start and wasn’t beaten far on the line. He has a good record over the distance placing five times from six tries and he drops 3kg here. Has drawn wide but will go back in the run and being on the outside will prevent an unlucky run. Currently an $8 chance and looks a big winning chance.
Don’t Back Me: Elite Elle won against her own sex last start but this looks a much tougher task for her. She will go forward and from a wide barrier will use a lot of energy easily and i doubt she will be able to hold them off late.
Big Danger: Rusambo got back last start and made good ground late in a race that didn’t suit his running pattern. He looks better suited here and will be attacking the line well late at $8.
Roughie: Yosei hasn’t gone close this preparation although i thought her runs have been good and the speed in this race will suit her. She will jump at big odds of $26 and could be the blowout horse in the race.

$250 That’s The One Free Bet

Best Bet: Super Cool

Next Best: Anagold

Best Roughie: Mourinho