The Scone Carnival wraps up this Saturday with a blacktype filled event program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres from the 800m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.
Race One (12:05) : Kia Ora Stud Handicap (78) 2200m:
Back Me: 3 Duca Valentinois (Best Odds: $2.70) was a sharp first up winner at Warwick Farm before going to the Stayers Final at Hawkesbury where he beat all bar Hipparchus, who looks an above average type for Chris Waller. Third up now, so he should be at peak fitness and prove tough to hold out.
Big Danger: 2 Murphy’s Delight (Best Odds: $4.60) was very good two back at Warwick Farm before going to Rosehill where a gem from Bowman got the Chris Waller gelding home near the inside. Only has upside and looks well placed here.
Roughie: 7 Meiner Freccia (Best Odds: $5.00) ran over 2000m at Kembla Grange last time out and looked home 250m out, but was just outstayed late in the piece by Vassal, who just packed too many guns near the inside. Little query on him running a strong 2200m, but the ability is certainly there.
Race Two (12:40) : Isuzu Ute Scone Handicap (77) 1100m:
Back Me: 3 Mogador (Best Odds: $3.80) looked really well placed last time out at Rosehill but the rain that came on the afternoon didn’t suit him at all. He is a pure dry tracker, and the wide gate is no issue, because he’ll get good cover off the back of a hectic tempo, and he is a Group l performer.
Big Danger: 14 Barood (Best Odds: $3.40) is a handy Choisir colt that resumes for Team Snowden. His form from the Summer reads very well for a race like this when the names Sir Bacchus and River Wild are mentioned, and the trial wins leading in have been sharp.
Roughie: 6 Crooked Blaze (Best Odds: $17.00) could well be the forgotten horse in the race. He hasn’t raced since the early part of the Autumn when placing behind Supreme Effort and Meursault in what has turned out to be a really hot form race. No trials, but inside gate and claim helps, and he does run well fresh.
Race Three (13:15) : Pryde’s Easifeed Woodlands Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 3 Artova (Best Odds: $18.00) is a really sharp filly for Neil Godbolt who has just been far too good for her rivals at the country two year old races, but the key is that she has run time and it compares well with her rivals here, so the class rise is no issue and she is tough.
Roughie: 9 Too Fast For Love (Best Odds: $11.00) resumed as an odds on pop at Muswellbrook where she tried hard but was no match for Fickle Folly when beaten just under a length. Stable is absolutely flying and she will do no work from the inside gate.
Big Danger: 1 Mooshakissa (Best Odds: $34.00) didn’t pull up 100% after failing last time out at Rosehill behind Impending, who ran with no luck last Saturday at the Gold Coast. Mooshakissa didn’t stretch out at all, so forget that run and go on her previous form and that is good enough to be competitive here.
Race Four (13:50) : Coolmore Denise’s Joy Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 5 Sangiovese (Best Odds: $2.70) resumed on Anzac Day at Randwick where she was well backed and tried hard but was no match for Supply And Demand, who will be a leading contender in the Guineas later in the afternoon. Should take good upside from that and prove a really hard horse to hold out late.
Big Danger: 13 Credit Card Miss (Best Odds: $34.00) is a stablemate of Sangiovese who proved far too good for her rivals on Anzac Day at Gosford, and while she didn’t beat much, the manner in which she did it was quite sharp. Draws well once again and she is in the right stable.
Roughie: 14 Fancy Nickers (Best Odds: $51.00) had no luck first up at Armidale before being given a 12/10 from Adam Sewell to win here a month back in really good style. Harder here, but she is trained on the track and there is plenty to like about her.
Race Five (14:30) : Inglis Scone Guineas 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Supply And Demand (Best Odds: $3.30) trialled brilliantly prior to resuming on Anzac Day at Randwick where he produced a brilliant finish from the back to win and he did it quite comfortably on the line. The time was ultra quick, and is another with upside. He should take a power of beating if he produces that form here.
Big Danger: 1 Spill The Beans (Best Odds: $1.90) does look the one to beat on form. Tim Clark could not have ridden the horse any better last time out when winning the Hawkesbury Guineas, carving over to lead, dictate and kick on strongly in the straight. Looks the leader again and now he gets the services of James McDonald.
Roughie: 7 Serene Majesty (Best Odds: $6.00) comes through the Hawkesbury Guineas where she sat behind Spill The Beans and tried hard but was simply no match. Can she turn the tables? I don’t think so, but she is talented and draws well once again.
Race Six (15:10) : Yarraman Park- Horsepower Luskin Star Stakes 1300m:
Back Me: 7 Clearly Innocent (Best Odds: $3.80) is a potential star based on what we have seen from him so far. Everything went wrong with him prior to the Final of the Country Championships, but he just put all that beside him and produced an amazing win, and defied one of the more alarming betting drifts we have seen in Sydney in some time. Recent trial behind Music Magnate was very good and he should prove hard to beat back on his home track.
Big Danger: 6 Federal (Best Odds: $2.60) comes through the Hall Mark (1200m) at Randwick where he finished off strongly to run a close up fourth to Music Magnate. His recent trial placing at Warwick Farm was very good, he runs best on the fresh side and stable love to target this race day, so don’t be surprised if he is hard in the market.
Roughie: 10 Piamimi (Best Odds: $101.00) is a talented mare for local trainer Greg Bennett who hasn’t raced for eight weeks since finishing a close up fifth in a strong form race, the Epona. Trialled at Wyong last week and gee I thought she went to the line strongly under no pressure. In terms of betting, she could be worth an each way investment at around the $81 mark.
Race Seven (15:50) : Godolphin Dark Jewel Classic 1400m:
Back Me: 13 In A Wink (Best Odds: $16.00) is in ripping form for Greg Bennett at the moment. I liked her first up run behind Trafalgar at Warwick Farm before being completely luckless in the Tamworth Cup. On her home track and draws to sit and ambush.
Big Danger: 7 Danish Twist (Best Odds: $5.50) deserves a crack at blacktype after winning the Provincial Championships Final at Randwick before winning impressively at Hawkesbury a fortnight back, aided by a lovely steer from Avdulla. She is absolutely flying at the moment, and now is the perfect time to get that blacktype, and the stable loves bringing runners to Scone and they do it successfully.
Roughie: 6 Ammirata (Best Odds: $7.00) was an impressive first up winner at Randwick before going to the Godolphin Crown where she looked a touch disappointing behind Nancy but she was back in the run and the on speed runners were dominant. Third up last time in she won at Rosehill and beat home Just A Blur, who has since run well in three subsequent Stakes races and won the Town Plate at Wagga last week, so the form reads well.
Race Eight (16:30) : Arrowfield Ortensia Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Kuro (Best Odds: $4.00) didn’t really fire in his stint with Team Freedman in Melbourne. He returned to the Joe Pride yard and ran a pleasing third to Furnaces in the sprint race at Hawkesbury with the big weight. Should improve off that and he is the clear class runner, so he has to rate as one of the hardest to beat in a tricky race.
Big Danger: 8 Kaepernick (Best Odds: $5.00) is the very intriguing runner. Resumes here for the low flying Team Hawkes yard after a mixed Spring, with the highlight being a benchmark win at Moonee Valley. Two trials at Rosehill have been sharp, winning both and the times have been good. Loaded with potential and can easily blow these away if he turns up in the right frame of mind.
Roughie: 3 Brook Road (Best Odds: $9.00) has been given a five week freshen up since running a game third to all the way winner Two Blue in the Group ll Sapphire (1200m). That mare has since gone on to run well and Brook Road herself does race best on the fresh side.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 7 Clearly Innocent
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 4 Supply And Demand
VALUE: Race Seven Number 13 In A Wink
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4
Leg Two: 2, 6, 7, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13
Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8
$50 Investment= 15.62% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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