The Summer Carnival in Brisbane warms up this Saturday at Doomben where it is Keith Noud Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out 2.5 metres for the entire circuit.
Keith Noud Quality 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Keith Noud Quality
Race 1. (13:13) Madame Wu Hcp 1110m
The gate is horrendous for 3 Northern Water (Bet Now: $5.00), but gee he looks a nice mover that will be charging at these late. Trialled last week at Eagle Farm and was a real eye catcher from off the speed when a close up third. Looks to be some nippy types here, so suspect Jimmy Orman will drag back and look to finish over the top.
1 Chief Artie (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Flying Artie youngster on debut. He trialled last week at Eagle Farm where he was between runners most of the way and under riding from Thompson, responded and went on to win the trial and record the fast time of the 2YO trials that morning. Gets the claim and has early toe.
6 Ezekeil (Bet Now: $7.00) is the one with hard experience and fitness under the belt. Kacy Fogden trained colt that ran over 900m at the Gold Coast last time out where he was near the speed throughout under Mallyon and when he got the split, he looked home, but was nabbed late. Gets the perfect sit off the speed and is hard to beat.
Race 2. (13:48) Rq Naidoc Celebration Race Hcp 2200m
1 Morton’s Fork (Bet Now: $3.00) is better than these isn’t he? Similar to recent times with So You Win and Grey Lion. Those that bring the Sydney/Melbourne form are just lengths better than the local batch up here. He was very good in the Rosehill Cup behind Costello and back on firmer footing, this does look perfect placement.
3 He Runs Away (Bet Now: $2.00) is on the seven day back up for Chris Waller after racing at Rosehill last Saturday on a very testing track. Not sure he was entirely happy in the conditions, and the ride from Nash wasn’t the best, but still thought he ran alright when third to Approach Discreet. Returns back to Queensland and his wins prior were impressive.
6 Plumaro (Bet Now: $15.00) is if she will be suited at the distance range. Ran over 2000m here a fortnight back where she was a bit flat footed when the sprint went on but picked up and was more than sound late behind So You Win. The extra ground I do like for her and I think she’ll be strong late off a hopefully good tempo.
Race 3. (14:23) Chu The Phat (bm72) 1350m
7 Toomai (Bet Now: $3.80) is bursting to win another race for Chris Waller and I think she gets her chance here. Ran over this track/distance on Melbourne Cup Day and worked home strongly from near last, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Beachbreak. She’s flying and stable has really fired up North in recent months compared to prior.
6 Hard Labour (Bet Now: $1.75) is a daughter of All Too Hard for the Edmonds camp that is absolutely flying this time in, winning 2/2. Produced sharp late splits to win fresh at the Gold Coast before going to Ipswich where she took on a solid bunch of Mares, but made a mess of them again. Brings relative fresh legs into this and is hard to beat.
4 Denarius (Bet Now: $18.00) is third pick for me but a very much distant third pick. Ran over this track/distance on Cup Day when near the speed and battling away okay in the Beachbreak race mentioned above. Highly doubt he will turn the tables on Toomai, but should put himself near the front and run a usual honest race.
Race 4. (14:58) The Sports Hub Hcp 1200m
4 Dominant King (Bet Now: $3.60) is the one on the up and I think can take this out. Comes out of a strong maiden on debut when placing but found his maiden at Ipswich and duly bolted up. What I liked was how strong he was through the line, so the bigger track here I do like and from the gate, Ben Thompson can land him in the perfect spot.
Giving respect to 1 Kavak (Bet Now: $3.00) for the Chris Munce stable. Thought the win three weeks ago was great. Led throughout and to the eye, it looked like Larry Cassidy dictated, but actually, it was just sustained speed from the front. Those behind had their chance to run him down but he was too good. Similar effort here and I think he just about wins again.
3 Jetty (Bet Now: $8.00) is a son of Jet Spur for the Edmonds camp that had trialled up really well prior to resuming here three weeks ago. He had a good sit just off the speed and was there to be a winning threat, but his condition just gave out late and was disappointing behind Kavak. He’s better than that, so give him another chance.
Race 5. (15:37) Duporth Tavern Hcp 1200m
2 Dusty Tycoon (Bet Now: $2.25) is a daughter of Written Tycoon for the Rob Heathcoate team that resumed three weeks back at this track/distance. Thought Dale Smith rode a peach front running race on the filly and was there to win. Just think the lack of race fitness beat her in the end as Paredo nabbed her in the last couple of strides. She’ll improve off that and has class.
Big watch here on 1 Plutocrat (Bet Now: $5.50), a Chris Anderson trained filly that resumes. Go back to the Winter Carnival, she was one of the runs of the race when second to September Run in the Bill Carter, with that filly now a Group l winner, so how well does that form read for this. Trialled up super last week and I think is a leading chance for the locals in the Magic Millions Guineas.
Good test here for 5 Jubai Pride (Bet Now: $5.50) but I think she has earned a crack at metro level on a Saturday. Far from disgraced in defeat two back at Ipswich before going to Ballina where she was heavily backed late and aided by a lovely steer just off the pace, she was much too good for her rivals. Harder here, has to go to 1200m, but she’s hard fit and in form.
Race 6. (16:17) Casa Cibo Plate (c3) 1050m
8 Garibaldi (Bet Now: $2.05) has been a bludger from a betting perspective, but he’s been gelded, finds a thin Class 3…surely he gets away with this. Blessed with great talent, but his desire to win races has been questionable, so the gelding operation I see as a positive to change that and his trial win at Eagle Farm last week was absolutely electric.
5 Ruuca (Bet Now: $5.00) has the engine of a Stakes class horse, but upstairs, he is a complete dumbo. Not sure he was going to win when resuming here two weeks ago, but regardless, he threw away his winning prospects by wanting to drift out under pressure, nearly on the outside fence, when fourth to Skins. Couldn’t back him to win with confidence but he’s got the ability.
The best version of 1 Go Deep (Bet Now: $9.50) is certainly capable but gee he can be hard to catch. Looked a good thing on paper when racing at the Sunny Coast on Cup Day but he didn’t fire at all and was most disappointing when fourth, beaten a length. Proven Saturday performer that can easily win this if he brings his best.
Race 7. (16:57) Beach House (bm80) 1615m
5 Kedah (Bet Now: $3.10) is racing really well at the moment for Kris Lees and I think is hard to beat here. Would have been a good thing beaten here on Cup Day but thankfully Jim Byrne found clear air late and the mare really attacked the line late to overhaul The Tax Accountant. Harder here, but she’s in good form and will be strong late.
1 Destiny’s Own (Bet Now: $4.80) is the map horse. Brenton Andrew has done a really good job with this guy and from the inside gate, think he’s really hard to beat. Ran over this track/distance three weeks back when attempting to lead throughout and he gave a good kick. Just no match for Love Struck. Gets run of the race from the barrier and is a key hope.
10 North Afrika (Bet Now: $8.50) deserves another chance on a firmer track. Found soft going two weeks ago here behind Seentoomany and didn’t really fire a shot in a disappointing effort. but he’s clearly a much better horse on top of the ground, which is what he should get here on Saturday, so he can easily bounce back against these.
Race 8. (17:33) Bottle-o Hcp (c6) 1110m
7 Niedorp (Bet Now: $2.30) looks to pick herself here. Looked the good thing of good things when she raced here three weeks ago, her first run since the Mick Dittman, and she gave her rivals a spanking, justifying the $1.30 quote. Bit more depth here, but she’s a short course specialist and does race best with relatively fresh legs.
4 Pizonie (Bet Now: $11.00) is several weeks between runs for Tony Gollan since racing at Eagle Farm where he was back off the speed but loomed large to win when presented. Just couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Spurcraft. He generally saves his best for Eagle Farm, but good speed engaged here should give him his chance.
11 I’ve Gotta Nel (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Barry Lockwood trained gelding that will put himself on speed and give his all. Hasn’t raced since July 22 when near the speed throughout at Eagle Farm but didn’t fire at all in the straight, with Lockwood telling Stewards the horse would spell. Resumes without a public trial, so he’s a market and yard watch.
Race 9. (18:15) Keith Noud Quality 1200m
3 Scallopini (Bet Now: $8.50) is a very good animal for Steve O’Dea who is rarely far away from the thick end of the prize and I think he can resume a winner. Hasn’t raced since June 27 in the Spear Chief here when just off the speed and tried hard, but Inquiry controlled things in front and was too good. Looked to close off well in his trial last week and is a bomb when produced fresh.
7 Sandbar (Bet Now: $9.50) is a huge watch here. David Vandyke trained galloper that is having his first run for the stable after formerly being with Brad Widdup. His overall form does read super for a race like this and has trialled up well in readiness…the query I have is 1200m fresh. His previous form suggests 1000m/1100m might be more his go, so watch the market.
I’m very wary of 10 Jonker (Bet Now: $23.00), who is now with Tony Gollan after formerly being with David Atkins. This guy hasn’t really set the world on fire since his 2YO season, but is now with Gollan in search of finding some positive form for the Magic Millions. Won a trial nicely enough last week, but the overall time and coming home splits were a tad concerning relative to the morning, so I’d watch the market.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 8 Garibaldi
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Morton’s Fork
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 3 Scallopini
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 8
Leg Two: 1, 5
Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 11
Leg Four: 1, 3, 7, 9, 10
$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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