14/10/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Blue Sapphire Stakes day

The Caulfield Cup Carnival continues on Wednesday where it is Blue Sapphire Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out ten metres for the entire circuit.

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Found this race impossible to sort out. I’ll just go with the proven city performer, which is 1 Tanker (Bet Now: $4.40). Noticed Jayne Ivil pre the Valley run say it was the best he looked and those looks resulted in a dominant win, albeit the race was perfectly set up for him. Can see Johnny Allen sliding across, landing on speed and proving hard to beat.

Jamie Kah, IMO, is the best in the business at getting a horse to switch off in the run, so I think 2 Rathlin (Bet Now: $4.40) deserves a chance here in a very winnable race if he found anything near his best. Similar profile to Tanker. Boom juvenile that looked very good but as he has got older, he hasn’t gone on with it unlike others. His best sees him win this. Just needs to produce it.

7 Jaffastock (Bet Now: $7.00) is a very interesting runner. Busuttin/Young trained colt that debuted over 1400m at Ballarat on a somewhat testing track and he looked in a bit of trouble 250m out but I loved the way he picked up late and surged hard to get up and win. Stable finds Bowman to steer and this race isn’t strong.

8 Nonconformist (Bet Now: $4.00) is a big improver here I feel. He was a month between runs when racing over 1700m at Caulfield just over two weeks ago and just looked in need of the run, plus I’m not 100% sure he was happy on the wet track. Gets onto firmer footing here, fitter and he was a dominant Group ll winner last time he was at this trip.

The obvious to beat is clearly 3 Al Galayel (Bet Now: $2.60). He comes here in career best form after a string of wins, the latest a romp on his favourite track when winning the JRA Cup, beating home subsequent Metropolitan winner Mirage Dancer. Just has to contend with the rise in weight and the fact others have more upside.

They’ve tinkered with the gear with 2 Cape Of Good Hope (Bet Now: $26.00) in what looks a last ditch attempt to revive his career because his recent runs, quite frankly, have been putrid. But, those races have been much stronger than what he faces here. HE gets gate one, Willie Pike to steer, small field suits…gets one last chance before a life ban.

2 Grand Promenade (Bet Now: $2.70) looks one of the best on the program and $3+ looks more than acceptable. Maher/Eustace trained gelding that’s been excellent in two runs back from a break, both over the mile, with the latest at Flemington behind Affair To Remember. He’s racing like he wants more ground, which he gets, and this is a winnable race. Really keen on him.

3 Gamay (Bet Now: $4.00) is an Archie Alexander trained mare that ran second in the Affair To Remember race mentioned above. Given a sweet steer in the run and loomed large to win, but the eventual winner got a miracle split and dashed through hard to get up and win. She’s racing well and is proven at this trip. Key and I thunk only threat.

The best version of 6 Royal Crown (Bet Now: $8.50) is certainly capable. Mick Kent trained four year old that has had two runs back from a break. Resumed with a strong third at Sandown before going to the JRA Cup at the Valley where he was well held behind Al Galayel. Much easier assignment here and is a knockout chance.

2 Anders (Bet Now: $1.45) looks the safe option of the three. His sustained speed when winning the SAN Domenico would have ensured him a spot in the Everest, but prior to the Moir, injury forced him out and freshened up for this and then the Coolmore Stud. He’ll lead and should be too good all things being equal.

1 Hanseatic (Bet Now: $3.50) has class and will be within range to cause trouble. He took on some bug big boys and girls in the Moir and although he beat one runner home, he wasn’t totally disgraced behind Pippie. Much better placed here and I think he saves his best for Caulfield. Price gap between he and Anders is a touch too big IMO.

3 Ranting (Bet Now: $7.00) is the outsider of the trio but $8.50+ is crazy for him. Three horse race and his form isn’t anything to sneeze at. Ran in the Danehill and loomed large to win the Group ll but just couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Doubtland. Think that form is solid enough to say a win here wouldn’t shock at all.

It’ll be very interesting to see what Team Williams does with 7 Saracen Knight (Bet Now: $2.70), whether he goes to a race like the Bendigo Cup, or does he win this and they have a crack at the Lexus  Stakes on Derby Day to win a way into the Melbourne Cup. He wouldn’t disgrace himself in the 2020 Melbourne Cup IMO based on what he did when winning here last time out, so with that in mind, he’s clearly the one to beat.

He’s not one of mine, but 10 Yonkers (Bet Now: $8.50) is value here outside the fav. I say that because Cadre Du Noir was beaten fair and square at Rosehill last time out in a very weak 78, yet Yonkers and a couple of others from Sydney have contested strong 88 races and been far from disgraced. Bowman steers and outside the fav, this is a thin race.

1 Sin To Win (Bet Now: $21.00) likely has eyes on the 2800m race on Cup Day at Flemington. He’s been a gutsy campaigner for connections and to be fair, his recent runs have been in stronger races than this, with his resumption behind Saracen Knight being very good from the back. $21+ is crazy for him and could easily have something on him to place.

4 William Thomas (Bet Now: $4.20) loves racing over the short course at Caulfield and should improve with the run under the belt. That run was four weeks ago here at this trip when back and closing off strongly, just failing to get there when third to From Within. Good second up record and should be strong at the end of this.

3 Coruscate (Bet Now: $3.30) is a James Cummings trained gelding that looked to find a perfect race when he resumed in the Testa Rossa and under a confident steer from Olly, the bets were landed and he was dominant in winning, with something in reserve to the eye. Maps to get a perfect run and should take some beating.

The 1400m race on Cup Day does look a real target race for 7 Bravo Tango (Bet Now: $10.00), and understandably so given he won the race last year, so not sure I could back him to win here, but is one certainly for exotics. He resumed behind Coruscate and was god late, with his condition just giving way late. He’ll come on from that and draws soft.

Another race I struggled with. On top is 8 Sovereign Award (Bet Now: $5.00). This horse is an absolute horror show to steer by the looks with her manners being a real concern, but Jamie Kah got her to switch off at the Valley and once that happened, it was race over. She either leads these or sits outside Ocean’s Thirteen and if she can relax again, she’ll take some running down.

This time 12 months ago, 5 Missile Mantra (Bet Now: $7.00) went very close to winning the Thousand Guineas. Hasn’t really gone on with it since, but her last start effort in the Blazer was more than encouraging. Loved the way she found the line off a moderate speed. Gets the Winkers back on and rises up to the mile, which should suit.

Class will carry 1 Spanish Reef (Bet Now: $8.00) a long way and relative weights, she is very much well in. Comes through the Stocks Stakes at the Valley and was good late behind Mystic Journey in an encouraging run, which followed an eye catching resumption. If she can settle closer in the run, she’ll be very dangerous.

Hard to knock a winner and that is what 15 Maritana (Bet Now: $5.00) is. Admittedly is a serious rise in grade/depth, but Julien Welsh does look to have a rather promising horse on his hands. He wasn’t 100% on the wet track last time out but he still managed to balance up and finish best. Does no work from the inside gate and the way he’s been hitting the line, 1400m looks ideal.

9 Legionnaire (Bet Now: $4.40) is a John Moloney trained gelding that drops a fair bit in grade/depth here after contesting the Paris Lane at Flemington last time out when kept quite safe in betting and he ran well in defeat when fifth to Riddle Me That. Likes racing at Caulfield and draws to get a lovely run just off the speed.

14 La Tigeresa (Bet Now: $11.00) is another with a tricky gate to overcome but Jason Warren has her going well I feel. Has had a mini freshen up since racing at this track/distance against the Mares when back and closing off nicely late behind Parmie. Should be able to get three wide cover and is deserving of a city win this prep.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 7 Saracen Knight

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Grand Promenade

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 15 Maritana

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 7

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 7

Leg Three: 1, 5, 8, 9, 11

Leg Four: 5, 9, 14, 15

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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