One of the better Country Carnivals is at Scone and the two day event kicks off on Friday with Scone Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:20) : Cressfield Maiden Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 3 Ahri (Best Odds: $2.70) looks the way to go here in a tough race. She had three runs during the Summer, all in Victoria, resulting in two placings. No trials in Sydney, so I suspect she had a jump out or two at Flemington and has got on the float. On her form from Victoria, she is the one to beat.
Big Danger: 7 Blazing Steel (Best Odds: $2.40) is a gelding on debut for the Kris Lees yard. He last trialled on April 14 at Gosford where he ran fourth to Peter John. The trial prior behind stablemate Twist Tops was solid enough to suggest he will be competitive here.
Roughie: 11 Brobak (Best Odds: $8.50) started $21 last time out at Muswellbrook and made up nice ground late when third to Lucky Vision, beaten just over three lengths. McDonald steers from a good draw and should be around the mark.
Race Two (12:55) : Segenhoe Stud Maiden Plate 1300m:
Back Me: 14 Sanaya (Best Odds: $3.20) ran at Warwick Farm last Wednesday and on face value she was disappointing behind Arancini, but this is the easiest maiden she has contested in some time, draws a soft gate and gets the services of Blake Shinn.
Big Danger: 12 Idlewild (Best Odds: $9.00) ran third last time out at Beaumont-Newcastle where she was beaten nearly seven lengths by impressive winner Funloving. Stable rider aboard from a good draw, so I think she can be an improver and go close here.
Roughie: 2 Ghetto Boy (Best Odds: $21.00) has run second at Coffs Harbour in both career outings, the latest looking to be a little unlucky I suspect. Harder here, but there is a bit to like about him and he will eat up the bigger track and a more genuine tempo.
Race Three (13:35) : Inglis 2YO Challenge 1100m:
Back Me: 5 Miss Amajardan (Best Odds: $1.50) looks the one to beat here. This filly had two runs in the Spring, winning both times, including one at Randwick where she beat home a couple of subsequent winners in a strong form race. Bolted up in a recent Taree trial, and if she turns up fit and healthy, she should take care of this lot.
Big Danger: 2 Tornadic (Best Odds: $4.20) debuted at Gosford on Anzac Day where he sat on speed and stuck on pretty well when second to Suspenders, beaten 2.5L. He wouldn’t have to improve much here to be a threat because outside the top tip, this isn’t a strong race.
Roughie: 8 Our Girl Charlie (Best Odds: $15.00) was kept safe in betting when debuting at Taree and stuck on alright I thought when fourth to Sweet Missile. The trials leading into that were pretty good, she’s in the right stable and should have good upside.
Race Four (14:12) : Criterion @ Newgate Farm Handicap (Class 1) 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Lips Areios (Best Odds: $9.00) is a very interesting runner. This former German galloper had three runs during the latter part of the Spring and was very good despite just the one win at maiden level. Recent trial at Wyong behind Oxford Poet was pretty good and he was strong through the line. Market and mounting yard watch, but on form, he is the one to beat.
Big Danger: Forget that 5 Gouldian (Best Odds: $6.00) went around last time out at Canterbury given he was on a shifty track and sat on speed, which clearly isn’t his go. He is better than that, and though hard to follow, he can beat these on his best form.
Roughie: 3 Storm System (Best Odds: $4.20) was scratched from Hawkesbury on Tuesday to tackle this race. He ran over the mile at Wyong last time out and closed off well from the back to run fourth to Manoeuvring. He was 1300m to 1600m there, so he should be toughened up now and is a definite contender.
Race Five (14:50) : Vinery Stud Handicap (Class 1) 1100m:
Back Me: 13 Bonny O’Reilly (Best Odds: $6.00) looks the way to go. I’m not sure what she beat on debut at Nowra, but winning by nearly ten lengths under little pressure does prick the antennas. Stable is absolutely flying and this filly looks well above average, so she creates plenty of interest for me here, and I’ll be happy to jump on her.
Big Danger: 8 Summer’s Bird (Best Odds: $19.00) trialled well behind Bonny O’Reilly at Kembla Grange prior to resuming at Goulburn where she ran well but had to run second to Filibuster, beaten narrowly in a pleasing return. Don’t mind her form from last prep and for mine she is a leading contender.
Roughie: 6 Torchbearer (Best Odds: $26.00) is a handy type that resumes for Kevin Berry. He showed good promise last time in, and a recent Warwick Farm trial behind Sebring Sun was very good. Has to overcome the awkward draw, but if he does, he is a genuine winning chance.
Race Six (15:27) : Turangga Farm Handicap (Class 2) 1300m:
Back Me: 2 Torpenhow (Best Odds: $1.90) looks a potential star and goes clearly on top for me. He bolted up on debut at Beaumont-Newcastle before going to Wyong and though he didn’t beat much there, the manner in which he did is a horse that looks good enough to run well during the Carnival in Brisbane. Should win this with normal luck and then get on the float to Brisbane.
Big Danger: 3 Red Extension (Best Odds: $9.00) strung together two wins before stepping up to the Hawkesbury Guineas where he made up ground without a great deal of luck behind Spill The Beans. Big drop in depth here, draws well and Shinn steers.
Roughie: 7 Dixie Chick (Best Odds: $9.00) has been given a freshen up since failing in the South Pacific Classic (1400m) at Randwick behind Handfast in a race where the form hasn’t really stood up, which is the worry, but she looked good in a recent trial behind Group l winner Japonisme. She has a booming finish on her and this track will suit that.
Race Seven (16:05) : Emirates Park Scone Cup 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Mighty Lucky (Best Odds: $6.00) was a super first up winner at Randwick over 1400m before racing in the Hawkesbury Cup where he looked home but was bloused late by the flying Amovatio, who found the best ground out wide and swooped. Third up now, he should be at peak fitness, and he just hasn’t raced any better, so he goes on top for me.
Big Danger: 7 Tales Of Grimm (Best Odds: $7.50) follows the same path as Mighty Lucky and while he hasn’t finished as close as that runner, his runs haven’t been too bad at all, in particular his effort behind Amovatio. He won this race last year and Chris Waller looks to have him ticking over and ready to fire for back-to-back wins in the race.
Roughie: 3 Sons Of John (Best Odds: $10.00) resumed in the Hawkesbury Cup and was an alarming drifter in betting and that fluc was spot on as he finished down the track, but looking back at the replay, his last 75m and through the line was strong. Fast run mile here with the long straight will really suit this galloper and he is the horse with upside.
Race Eight (16:44) : Pages Event Equipment Scone Country Cup (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Pera Pera (Best Odds: $3.50) is a tough galloper for Mack Griffith who comes here off the back of a last start second in the Tamworth Cup where he did a power of work from the wide gate and tried hard but had to settle for a close up second. Proven weight carrier and he loves a fight, so a fast run 1400m will be right up his alley.
Big Danger: 7 Sahara Chill (Best Odds: $4.20) is a quality mare for local trainer Greg Bennett who ran third last time out at Rosehill behind Muy Bien and was really given every chance by Christian Reith. I think a more genuine tempo and getting back onto her home track will suit this daughter of Dubawi perfectly and she is a major threat.
Roughie: 18 Slippery Moss (Best Odds: $41.00) landed some good bets to win last time out at Muswellbrook, aided by a lovely steer from Tony Cavallo. He has run well here in the past despite the face value poor record, he drops big time in weight and will appreciate a strong tempo.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Torpenhow
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 3 Pera Pera
VALUE: Race Seven Number 1 Mighty Lucky
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13
Leg Two: 2, 3
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7, 12, 18
$50 Investment= 7.44% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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