A bumper ten race card has been assembled for Ascot on Saturday, with the feature race being the $100,000 Listed Cyril Flower Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.
Race One (15:13) : Perak Turf Club Trophy 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Kimbos Girl (Best Odds: $1.16) debuted over 1100m here and tried hard but had to settle for a second to Dainty Tess. Should take good improvement off that and will take some beating here if she can lead, which I am nearly certain she will.
Big Danger: 1 Wrinkly (Best Odds: $6.00) debuted over this trip and worked home alright late in the piece when running second to impressive type Guest Express. Got the run under the belt now and draws to get every chance.
Roughie: The rest of these look pretty plain, so I’ll put in 7 Nice Go (Best Odds: $34.00), who didn’t really set the world on fire in a trial at Belmont, but could improve under raceday conditions. But the top two stand out.
Race Two (15:53) : Nessco Handicap (72+) 2400m:
Back Me: 2 Dark Alert (Best Odds: $2.70) looks the way to go here. He was given a lovely ride by Pike to win here a fortnight back, beating home Cougar Express. Meets that horse better at the weights here, so he goes on top.
Big Danger: 3 Cougar Express (Best Odds: $3.20) ran a game second in that race mentioned above, then backed up last Saturday over the mile and closed off nicely late behind in form galloped Vengabus. Not sure he can turn the tables, but he will stay all day.
Roughie: 1 Fulgur (Best Odds: $31.00) ran a disappointing seventh in that race mentioned above. But that was his first run in three weeks since running a game third. With the run under the belt, he could sharply improve.
Race Three (16:33) : Penang Turf Club Trophy 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Discord Witch (Best Odds: $5.00) led all the way over 1200m at Bunbury last time out and proved far too good for her rivals. Steps up to city grade, but this looks a thin race, so I’ll lean her way.
Big Danger: 2 She Rules (Best Odds: $4.00) All led all the way over 1200m last start but I’m not sure what to make of the win because she just crawled them in front and nothing behind her had any hope. Still, she got the job done and will prove hard to beat.
Roughie: 1 Distant Memory (Best Odds: $4.20) sat on speed at Bunbury last time out and kicked on very strongly to get the job done. Not easy with the top weight, but she gets the claim, is fit and is in form.
Race Four (17:13) : The Association Of Great China Inc Handicap (Class 5) 1600m:
Back Me: 4 O’Reilly’s Crumpet (Best Odds: $3.20) has been excellent in both runs this time in, with the latest being over 1800m here when second to Confusing. Should get the gun run from the gate and is well weighted after the claim for Johnston-Porter.
Big Danger: 1 Tom Almighty (Best Odds: $8.00) worked home strongly last time out over 1400m here when second to Countercat, beaten just under a length. Third up now, so he should be cherry ripe fitness wise and prove hard to beat.
Roughie: 2 Discoville (Best Odds: $8.00) is also third up here after also having his second up effort over 1400m here when making ground very late in the race when running fourth to King Of Wu. Looks as though he will appreciate the mile and has plenty of upside.
Race Five (17:50) : Singapore Turf Club Trophy (0MW) 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Fermentation (Best Odds: $2.30) was awfully impressive in winning on debut over this track/distance, sprouting wings from near last and won quite impressively. Draws well and Pike on. Ticks the boxes required for me to get the job done.
Big Danger: 12 Detente (Best Odds: $9.00) ran over 1100m here last start and worked home well without threatening when running third to Just Act Natural, beaten just over three lengths. He’ll eat up the extra 100m and despite drawing wide he is a leading contender.
Roughie: 1 All Settled (Best Odds: $8.00) brokethrough for a well deserved maiden win last time out at Bunbury. He pounced on the lead at the top of the straight and tired late but clung on. With more patient hands here, he can definitely win this.
Race Six (18:25) : Minearc Systems Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Pushin’ Shapes (Best Odds: $4.80) is a talented gelding who resumes here. He performed very well during the Carnival without winning. Looked sharp in a recent Lark Hill trial, draws well and has class.
Big Danger: 1 Yoshi Noxious (Best Odds: $7.50) is another classy type that resumes here. He is another that performed well during the Carnival, placing in a couple of Stakes races. No trials, but has class and should be around the mark.
Roughie: 4 Just Act Natural (Best Odds: $2.90) ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and was very impressive in leading all the way and spanking his rivals. He has race fitness on his side and will do no work from the gate.
Race Seven (19:00) : Selangor Turf Club Trophy (72+) 1000m:
Back Me: 7 Classical Prince (Best Odds: $4.80) ran over 1100m here last time out and produced a lovely turn of foot to win impressively. Back to 1000m will be no issue, draws well and has plenty of upside left.
Big Danger: 4 Gigante (Best Odds: $7.50) ran second in that race mentioned above and he tried his guts out, as he always does, but couldn’t quite hold out the winner. I think back to the 1000m will suit him better than Classical Prince and he meets that horse 2.5kg better at the weights.
Roughie: 10 Long Knife (Best Odds: $10.00) is one of the form sprinters at the provincials, winning three on the bounce, the latest over 1050m at Albany when leading all the way. He’ll find it hard to do that from the wide gate here, but it’s hard to knock solid winning form.
Race Eight (19:35) : Australian Chinese Times Trophy (72+) 1500m:
Back Me: 1 Baraki Beats (Best Odds: $6.00) ran over 1400m here a couple of weeks back and tried hard but had to settle for second to Corporate Larrikin, beaten two lengths. Has to rise in weight here, but should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: 2 Muskets At Dawn (Best Odds: $7.00) ran over the mile here last time out and produced some real grit to get the job done narrowly but impressively. Drawn wide but he is racing so well, so he can’t be dismissed.
Roughie: 3 Carney (Best Odds: $16.00) is a handy stayer that resumes here after a 63 day break. His best form is over further, and his first up record is shocking, he is talented and the break hasn’t been long, so he’ll have residual fitness.
Race Nine (20:10) : Cyril Flower Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Red Ora (Best Odds: $2.15) was given a lovely front running steer from Willie Pike to win the Scenic Blast (1200m), leading all the way and spanking his rivals. Goes up 4.5kg in weight which is a big impost, he’ll still prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: 5 First Among Equals (Best Odds: $4.20) ran second to Red Ora in the Scenic Blast, and he really had no hope given the tempo of the race, so for him to run on for second was an excellent effort. He does meet Red Ora 1.5kg better off at the weights, and there should be a more genuine tempo.
Roughie: 4 Dream Lifter (Best Odds: $6.50) is an Albany based sprinter that showed a brilliant turn of foot to win at Mount Barker last time out in a pretty strong race. He will do no work from gate one and despite rising in grade, he could well fill a place.
Race Ten (20:45) : Amelia Park Handicap (1MW) 1200m:
Back Me: Not really a race I am keen on. But I’ll lean towards 7 Red Paddy (Best Odds: $4.80), who finished to win over this track/distance last Wednesday. Harder here in some aspects, but it isn’t the strongest Saturday race going around, and he does have some upside I feel.
Big Danger: 4 It’s Fit (Best Odds: $6.00) sat on speed last time out at Bunbury and faded late in the piece when running seventh, beaten just under three lengths. He won well in town the start prior and Pike jumps on, which is a big lead.
Roughie: 1 Grey Enigma (Best Odds: $11.00) resumed in a much stronger race than this a couple of weeks back and was just fair I thought behind Conjob. He has a really good second up record, and on his best form, he’d take some beating here.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Red Ora
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 7 Classical Prince
VALUE: Race Three Number 3 Discord Witch
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 4, 6, 7, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Three: 2, 4, 5
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
$50 Investment= 20.83% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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