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Victorian racing this Monday heads to Mornington. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (10) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (12:25) The Big Screen Company Mdn 1200m

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Back Me

11 Hypothetical (Bet Now: $2.40) on top in the opener. Team Freedman trained filly that is on debut and she has appeared to move like a nice horse in jumpout work, the latest being an on speed win here under no real riding. Drawn wide, but should slide forward and prove hard to beat.

Danger

Staying at 1200m is the knock with 2 Cisalpine (Bet Now: $12.00) but he’s a key threat. He ran over this trip at Sale last start where he ran his race in patches, but was good late when he switched on. He’s racing like he will eat up 1400m, so 1200m again is a query, but has talent.

Long Shot

10 Squeak (Bet Now: $13.00) is a son of Darci Brahma for Michael Moroney that is on debut. He’s had a couple of jumpouts this time in, both at Flemington, and hasn’t been too bad in repsective pieces of work. I think watch the market and see what it does with him, whether #They like him or not.

Race 2. (13:00) Asset Painting Services Hcp 1200m

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Back Me

I’m in the corner of 9 Kimberley (Bet Now: $6.00), a Tom Dabernig trained filly that is on debut. She’s had a couple of jumpouts this time in to get ready for start one, the latest seeing her lead throughout at Mortlake and what I liked is that when she was asked for an effort, she responded and drew clear. Happy to be in her corner.

Danger

1 Daniher (Bet Now: $3.00) is a Team Freedman gelding that is on debut and he’s the omen bet of the day given the Big Freeze this afternoon. His jumpout has been good without being outstanding, but in saying, I think it’s been good enough to suggest he’ll run a positive race on debut.

Long Shot

4 Happy Family (Bet Now: $5.00) is an Invader colt for the Maher/Eustace camp that is on debut. This colt hasn’t done anything at the jumpouts to jump up and down about, but Blinkers on for the debut tells me there is intent and for mine is a definite yard and market watch.

Race 3. (13:35) Quayclean (Bm64) 1200m

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Back Me

3 Wolflands (Bet Now: $3.70) on top. Julien Welsh trained three year old that resumes, having not raced since his debut at Cranbourne back in January when leading throughout and was strong to the line and through it in a dominant display. Couple of jumpouts to get ready and hopefully can carve across from the wide draw, sit on speed and prove hard to run down.

Danger

6 Feudal Empire (Bet Now: $4.40) hasn’t been too bad in two runs back for the Maher/Eustace camp. Both runs have come at Cranbourne, winning fresh before sitting on a solid speed last time and was only nabbed late near the peg. With a more economical run in transit, he can bounce back into the winners list.

Long Shot

10 Russians (Bet Now: $6.50) is a three year old filly for James Cummings that resumes. She didn’t do a bad job in her first prep, which included a city maiden win at Canterbury. Couple of jumpouts leading in have been good pieces of work and from a soft gate, she commands respect.

Race 4. (14:10) Rosebud Country Club (Bm64) 1000m

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Back Me

I’m with 3 Morean (Bet Now: $2.60), who resumes for Team Freedman. This girl hasn’t raced since April 6 at Sandown when back in the run and closed off with purpose late in the piece when second to Commands The Field. Looked to move well in a recent Caulfield jumpout and maps ideally from the gate.

Danger

13 Smokin’ Holly (Bet Now: $4.20) gets in really well after the claim and comes into this off the back of a dominant first up win at Cranbourne where she led throughout and gave nothing else a look in. Tricky draw, but has early speed, weight pull improvement to come. Key threat.

Long Shot

5 Telluride (Bet Now: $11.00) deserves another chance. James Cummings trained filly that resumed under the lights at Cranbourne and I thought she was very plain after seemingly getting every chance in transit, failing to fire a shot. She’s better than that and deserves another look.

Race 5. (14:45) Jim Marconi (Bm70) 2000m

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Back Me

5 Love Takes Time (Bet Now: $2.30) is bred to eat up 2000m so with that in mind, I am leaning her way. She ran over the mile at Sandown last start where she was a bit one paced when the sprint went on but picked up and was solid late behind Princess Rhaenys, who I am keen on in the next race, so I’m trusting that form, and this mare should love a rise in trip.

Danger

2 La Spezia (Bet Now: $4.60) has come back in really good order for Jamie Edwards and gets to a suitable trip. Ran over the mile at Sandown on very testing ground last time out and stayed on pretty well in defeat in awful conditions when fourth to Vitruvius. Has won at the trip, and likes wet ground. Hard to beat.

Long Shot

1 Indiana Lily (Bet Now: $26.00) loves getting her toe in and her best is clearly good enough. Shea Eden trained mare that was too bad to be true at Sandown last time out when tailed off last behind Teofilo Star. She is clearly better than that and back to this grade/level/depth, expect sharp improvement.

Race 6. (15:20) Gwen E Trescowthick Mem.-Bm78 2000m

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Back Me

7 Princess Rhaenys (Bet Now: $3.30) is a mare with some promise for Peter Moody. Knuckled down with purpose to win over the mile at Sandown last time out. Lacked a turn of foot but kept on and surged hard late to get the win, just. I think she’ll eat up 2000m and clearly has room for improvement.

Danger

9 Pepper’s Ghost (Bet Now: $6.00) is an honest gelding for Matty Ellerton that is rarely far away. He tried his guts out at Sandown last time but was no match for a then in form Reuber. Not 100% sold on him re wet ground, genuine wet ground, but he’s an honest horse who should be around the mark.

Long Shot

Best version of 1 Bedford (Bet Now: $8.50) is certainly capable. Just not sure where he is at. He was far from disgraced two back in the Terang Cup before finishing down the track at Caulfield. Has since had a hurdle trial, whether that is to sharpen him up, or is this a prep run for a future jumps career? Not sure, but his best would see him win.

Race 7. (15:55) Stridefree Ron Hutchinson-Bm70 1200m

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Back Me

I am quite surprised $12+ was the opening price for 3 Awapuni Princess (Bet Now: $7.50). Her two runs back from a spell have come at Caulfield and each time, she has had little to no luck in the straight when seemingly having plenty to offer. Gets clear air from a wide gate here, likes getting her toe in, has class…gee she’s a great bet at the price.

Danger

9 Defiant Diva (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Team Corstens trained mare that resumes. Hasn’t raced since Boxing Day at Caulfield where she produced an end of prep run when down the track behind American Angel. She is better suited over further, so for mine, she’s a false favourite, but that’s not to say she can’t win.

Long Shot

7 Starden Lass (Bet Now: $8.50) is a daughter of Denman for the Maher/Eustace camp that resumes. She hasn’t raced since Jan 21 down the straight at Flemington when pulling up lame in a clear forgive behind Grand Pope. Races well early on in a prep and has jumped out well leading in.

Race 8. (16:30) Harvey Brown Memorial (Bm70) 1000m

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Back Me

12 Sniper Legend (Bet Now: $3.70) is finding it hard to win but that said, he is racing in pretty good form. Ran over 1100m on the Synthetic at Pakenham last start where he was near the speed throughout and he tried his guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow third. Back in trip and back on a wet track, he’ll take beating.

Danger

7 Llod’s Crown (Bet Now: $3.20) is a Bec Waymouth trained gelding that resumes. He had two runs in the Autumn, winning impressively fresh at Sandown before a down the track at Flemington at Stakes level. Has been given a good break and the pattern is there to suggest fresh is best.

Long Shot

18 Strategy (Bet Now: $13.00) is an interesting runner. Formerly with Lloyd Kennewell, he now finds himself with Logan McGill. He was hit and miss when with Kennewell but when he was right, he was city class, certainly good enough to figure here. Resuming on the home track, watch the market.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Awapuni Princess

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 11 Hypothetical

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 9 Kimberley

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5

Leg Two: 1, 7, 8, 9

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 4, 7, 9, 12, 18

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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