13/5/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, SA Derby day

Group l racing continues at Morphettville on Saturday, with the South Australian Derby (2500m) highlighting a nine race card, keeping in mind the first three races will be run on the Parks track. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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SA Derby 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the SA Derby

1 Sghirripa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) picks himself I feel. He was heavily supported two weeks ago over 1100m on the course proper here and with sustained speed, he was much too good for them in an impressive display. He is a jump/run type so 1000m is ideal. He should find the front and with Rawiller aboard, it’s going to take a good one to get past him.

11 Runaway Belle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has taken a while to break the maiden status but now that she has, she can certainly go on with it. The maiden win came on March 26 over 1000m at Murray Bridge, giving them a start and a beating in a strong display, landing decent bets in the process. Has run well at the track/distance previously and should be strong at the end.

3 Zufasta (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win for the Richards/Moyle camp. He ran last Wednesday at Murray Bridge where he kept finding the line from off the speed but was no match late for a nice horse, Declared. Take out the Redelva run, the form in town reads very well for a race like this and I do think short course racing is his go in life.

Happy to be with 4 Nodachi (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He’s done little wrong in a three start career, running a game third to a nice horse, Legacies, a subsequent Stakes winner. She then stepped up to 1400m and made an absolute mess of them, winning by over five lengths and running decent time. Can only see her improving off that, maps to get a suck run and be effective late.

1 Harley’N’Rose (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like he will eat up 1400m for the Richards/Moyle team. I was keen on him running well in the Breeders a fortnight back and he did run well, but was simply no match for a sharp filly in Treasurway, who won like it was a barrier trial. 1400m should be ideal for him and should he be able to settle closer, he’ll take holding out.

3 Air Assault (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bred to appreciate 1400m so I wouldn’t be totally dismissing him. They rode him a touch too warm I thought in the Breeders two weeks back and it backfired as it didn’t finish the race off at all, beaten over four lengths by Treasurway. Think with a more conservative steer, 1400m will be okay, and off prior efforts, he can take this out without shocking.

This clearly looks a set play for 2 East Indiaman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) and I think off last start, he’s back. That was last Wednesday at Murray Bridge when leading and copping heat on speed. He was entitled to knock up but kept finding and stuck on really well when third to Platinum Wolf. Jess Eaton is back on and this horse thrives at the track/distance. He’s going to lead, comfortably I think, and take running down.

4 Platinum Wolf (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a five start career and confident he can measure up against these. Market wanted him when racing last Wednesday over this trip at Murray Bridge, getting the dream run off the speed before tracking up nicely and letting down with purpose to win quite impressively. Clearly this is a harder assignment but he has the quality, upside and progression to measure up.

5 Star Jan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been pretty strong since joining Jeff Searle and is one of the key chances. Caught the eye two back at Warracknabeal before going to Naracoorte where the market said she was ready to go and under a lovely ride from Crowther, she made a mess of them late and was strong to the line in winning. Has that 1400m run under the belt, which should hold her in good stead.

2 Manhattan Times (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is certainly capable with his best and back to benchmark grade, I think he’s a big improver. He resumed three weeks back over 1100m here in the Irwin where he was back near last in the run and failed to make any real headway behind Kallos. This looks a significant drop in depth for him and if he’s within range, he has the finale to overhaul them.

1 Syncline (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty that resumes for Phillip Stokes. He is one of the better sprinters in Darwin, as seen last prep when winning the Palmerston Sprint, the best sprint race in that part of the world. Now with Stokes and I thought his trial a couple of weeks ago at Gawler was a lovely piece of work. Hard to beat, provided the market says he’s good to go.

Fitter and up to 1200m are big ticks for 3 Magnetic Edge (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He resumed in the Railway at Oakbank where he found the 1100m a touch sharp but didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece behind Taunting. Good second up record…might want one more, but he is a tough nut when right and will be strong at the end if indeed he’s near his best.

Hard to get away from 5 Captain Britain (Bet Now:  $SP.00). His run last Wednesday at Murray Bridge was incredible really given he lumped 65kg, he found the line and was really good in defeat behind the in form Wolfburn. Drops 8.5kg leading into this and provided D Oliver is switched on, I do think this horse has a bit on these. All things being equal, he’s a good thing.

2 Prince Jofra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has won at 2200m so 1800m here should be fine. He ran over the mile here two weeks back where they rode him a touch warm I thought and it backfired, as it left him with not much for the straight behind Montepulciano. They had ridden him with a sit prior and it worked very well so I think reverting to those tactics, he’ll take beating.

8 I Need A Drink (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout. Port Lincoln raider that comes into this off the back of a dominant win at Gawler on Anzac Day where he was a big price and made an absolute mess of them, drawing clear to win quite well in solid time. He has won at 2000m previously so 1800m here is no issue and off last run, he’s certainly in with a shout.

4 Queman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is closer to the end of the prep than the start of it but he is a jump/run type that will look the winner for a long way. Forgive the run a fortnight back behind Star Hills, sitting wide no cover for the trip and fought on really well, but got the staggers late and had to settle for a third to Star Hills. If he has petrol in the tank and can land on speed, he’ll look the winner for a long way.

Fitter is a big tick for 3 Keep Reading (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Team Jolly trained gelding that resumed over 1100m here a fortnight back, sitting on speed and was there to win, but first up, condition just gave way when finishing down the track behind surprise winner Star Hills. Much better set up this time around, hopefully a positive ride, and his best is clearly good enough to give this a shake.

1 Star Hills (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect if he can reproduce the first up performance. There was a lot of quality about the win two weeks back despite the massive SP, giving them a start and a beating, launching late to finish over the top. If you can trust that effort into this, he’ll be a key winning chance. But, I feel he is more a first four contender.

The forgotten horse IMO is clearly 3 Dunkel (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He’s a very good horse for Patrick Payne and I still have the belief he can be a Cups horse in the Spring. Forget the Alister Clark run on All Star Mile Day, where the track was suiting those up/in, and he was back last. His late splits were excellent relative to the race and has been kept on ice with this race in mind. Loved his recent Ararat jumpout, he’ll be strong at 2500m and has the brilliance factor.

9 Promises Kept (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the big query. Formerly with Greg Eurell, Brae and Ozzie got involved, bought him and is now with Maher/Eustace. He hasn’t raced since a dominant all the way win in the St Leger Trial at Bendigo, and yes, was helped by the track pattern, but even allowing for that, he was dominant. Moved well enough in a Cranbourne jumpout to my eye and stable is flying.

4 High Approach (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a handy three year old for Dan O’Sullivan that comes with fresh legs, having not raced since the Australian Derby where he ran a brave fifth to Major Beel after settling near last in the run, working home with real purpose. Kept up to the mark with a Horsham jumpout win when pushed out and responded well. He’ll be strong late and has good upside compared to most.

3 Star Vega (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat. Team Freedman trained three year old that has done little wrong in a two start career. Let down with real purpose to win on debut at Benalla before going to Sandown where I think most would agree that he should have got the win via protest but had to settle for a second to Skinny Dip. Racing like he will eat up the mile and has good upside to come.

10 Party Princess (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited back to the mile. She comes back in trip after racing over 2000m in the SA Oaks where they rode her warm and it backfired as she finished down the track behind Affaire A Suivre. The prior efforts were really good and certainly good enough to take this out.

2 Pearl Adios (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying and a definite winning chance. He put together a couple of sharp wins on the bounce before going to the Port Adelaide Guineas where he had a good run in transit and tried hard when fourth to Affaire A Suivre, beaten just under four lengths. That confirmed a Derby prep wasn’t his go so fresh legs at the mile is ideal and is a key chance.

4 Demon Blood (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. Clinton McDonald trained gelding that resumed with an unlucky second at Ballarat before going to Pakenham where he was kept relatively safe in betting but failed to fire a shot and was very much on the plain side, but was found to be lame post race so he had a clear excuse. Off the first up run, he’s certainly good enough to take out a race like this.

5 Rotokura (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the map horse and is in form for the Griffiths/De Kock camp. He has won his past two, winning the maiden two back at Pakenham before going to Kyneton where he back from the inside but got clear, tracked up and charged to the line for a dominant win. Fast run 1050m looks ideal and if the inside gate is used to advantage, he’ll take holding out.

1 Hallowed Ground (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Hallowed Crown that resumes for David Jolly. He hasn’t raced since January 20 at Murray Bridge when attempting to lead throughout over 1200m and gave a solid kick but just found the trip a bridge too far when down the track behind Grand Host. Not a noted fresh horse but has trialled up really well in readiness and will take running down from on speed.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 5 Captain Britain

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Sghirripa

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 3 Dunkel

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 9, 16

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 7

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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