The Perth Racing Carnival takes a week off this Saturday with an eight race program, and while there are no feature races, the depth looks pretty good. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (15:49) : Sell Lease Property Plate 1100m:
Back Me: Swedish Memories (Best Odds: $1.70) debuted in the Crystal Slipper over this track/distance and stuck on quite gamely when running third to Spangled Impact. Hard to know how good the debutantes are, but gee this horse does look the winner regardless.
Big Danger: I Am Incredible (Best Odds: $5.50) debuts here for the Parnham yard after trialling over 400m at Belmont when running a close up second to stablemate Next Generation. Regular stable rider sticks with this horse and has the barrier draw advantage.
Roughie: Trademark (Best Odds: $5.00) is a first starter for Trevor Andrews off the back of a nice trial win over 900m at Belmont on December 7 and the time he ran was the second quickest of the morning, which is good enough to be competitive here.
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Race Two (16:29) : Amelia Park Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: Vega Magic (Best Odds: $1.65) looks the way to go here. The gelding resumed over this track/distance a tick under three weeks back where he ambled along in front before showing a lovely turn of foot to win with a fair bit of ease. Don’t think this race is any harder, and with normal luck, he’ll be winning again.
Big Danger: Production (Best Odds: $18.00) ran over 1100m here a couple of weeks back when working home strongly from the back to run fourth to Kentucky Lass. Extra 100m is perfect and from the good gate, he shouldn’t be too far away.
Roughie: Castle Queen (Best Odds: $19.00) broke through for her maiden win last start at Bunbury where she had the dream run behind the tempo before getting the split and bursting through for a narrow but impressive win. Gate one here, so she should get every chance, and outside the top tip, this is a thin race.
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Race Three (17:09) : Perth Cup Day At Ascot- January 2 Handicap (1MW) 1600m:
Back Me: Lone Choice (Best Odds: $6.50) produced a lovely finish to break his maiden in good style at Bunbury last time out under the urgings of Pike, who sticks with this Sharon Miller trained type, which is the lead for mine to be in this horses corner.
Big Danger: Who Dat Singa (Best Odds: $4.40) didn’t pull up 100% after failing in the WA Guineas (1600m) behind Man Booker, where he pulled up with abrasion. His two runs prior were outstanding and despite carrying topweight here, he’ll take some beating if he is back to his best form.
Roughie: Victorious Lad (Best Odds: $7.00) is still a maiden after six starts, but the gelding stuck on gamely last start over 1400m here when running a close up third to stablemate Fremond. Up to the mile suits, and from the gate, he should be given space and time to wind up, which suits him better than being cuddled and saved for the straight.
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Race Four (17:50) : Book Your Christmas Function At Ascot Handicap (60+) 1500m:
Back Me: Lunar Eclipse (Best Odds: $3.80) was excellent against the bias here three weeks back when charging home from the back to run a close up fifth to Lenience. Drops a fair bit in grade here, and is well placed with the claim for an in form apprentice.
Big Danger: Saker (Best Odds: $6.00) hasn’t raced in nearly two months since running an unlucky second to LIberty Rise over 1400m here. Up to 1500m here, so it will be a decent training effort by Fred Kersley if it’s successful, but how could you doubt one of the WA’s best?
Roughie: Bolting (Best Odds: $13.00) ran over 1700m at Bunbury last time out and he can be forgiven for failing given he copped a bit of pressure in front and faded late to run seventh, beaten four lengths. Weight relief here and gets gate one, so he could be an improver at odds.
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Race Five (18:30) : Sponsor A Race- Contact Perth Racing Handicap (60+) 2200m:
Back Me: Entrechat (Best Odds: $5.00) looks the one to beat here. She ran over the mile here last start when winding up gamely to run a close up second to Sheercat. Pike remains on and though a query at 2200m, this is a very thin race.
Big Danger: Moonsearch (Best Odds: $4.60) steps up to the 2200m after winning over 1800m at this track a tick under three weeks back where he had the charmed run behind the tempo and though the jockey dropped the reins with 150m to go, he proved too good. Gives the impression he will handle the trip and is a definite threat.
Roughie: Savanarola (Best Odds: $8.50) was only second up when racing over this track/distance a fortnight back when a battling sixth to Bedamijo. On his best form, he’d spank these, and he has a super third up record.
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Race Six (19:05) : Perth Racing Instagram Handicap (72+) 2200m:
Back Me: Carney (Best Odds: $9.50) ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where he worked home well late to run third to Bedamijo. That was his first crack at 2200m, and with that run under the belt, he should be better off and prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Raising Dubai (Best Odds: $4.60) drops big time in class after contesting the Tatts Cup (2100m) three weeks ago where he didn’t receive the greatest amount of luck when running sixth to Dubai Escapade. Looks so well placed after the claim and should take some beating here.
Roughie: Cougar Express (Best Odds: $9.00) ran fourth in that Bedamijo race mentioned above where he sat on speed and toughed it out pretty well considering he was on speed and only second up. There is a stack of upside with him and will be in it for a long way.
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Race Seven (19:40) : Perth Racing Young Membership Handicap (60+) 1200m:
Back Me: Express Dancer (Best Odds: $1.60) has put together two very impressive wins from as many runs this time in, the latest coming a month back at this track/distance when showing a lovely turn of foot. Month between runs and wide gate are the worries, but how can you rule out a runner with the stable/jockey combo.
Big Danger: Muskets At Dawn (Best Odds: $16.00) is a talented galloper that resumes for Simon Miller. He was solid during the Winter as a three year old and while he didn’t win, he was good. Looked great in a recent trial and he does tend to save his best when produced fresh.
Roughie: Coruscation (Best Odds: $21.00) ran fifth to Express Dancer and his effort was okay considering he was chasing a hot speed and had to do some work. Tired late to run fifth, beaten just under six lengths. Gets a nice weight pull on that runner and despite drawing wide, he has gate speed.
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Race Eight (20:20) : Perth Racing #ascothappens Handicap (78+) 1200m:
Back Me: The Dankster (Best Odds: $10.00) resumes here for John Betts. He hasn’t raced since late July at Belmont when a solid sixth to subsequent Stakes performer Young Lionel. Recent Belmont trial was very encouraging and the speed looks good enough for him to charge late.
Big Danger: Ron’s Call (Best Odds: $13.00) is a Stakes performer whose best years are behind him, but on his day, he is still a talented horse. Resumes here for Simon Miller off the back of a nice trial, and he is a two time first up winner.
Roughie: Under The Sun (Best Odds: $51.00) didn’t really fire a shot in two runs for Garry Delane last time in, but he has looked pretty sharp in a couple of trials on his home track at Albany. Pike on too, which is a very good lead.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 7 Express Dancer
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Swedish Memories
VALUE: Race Eight Number 3 Under The Sun
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8
Leg Three: 2, 7
Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13
$50 Investment= 11.90% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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