12/8/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Belmont Newmarket day

The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Belmont Newmarket Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out eight metres from the 1600m-400m; Out five metres for the remainder.

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Belmont Newmarket 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Belmont Newmarket

Not much of a race. Leaning the way of 1 Cut The Talk (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Tim Crosby. He hasn’t raced since March 4 at Ascot when wide with cover but was quite keen and green in the run, not leaving him with much for the straight behind Street Parade. Good fresh horse and with a strong trial under the belt, he seems ready to go. Watch the market and see what it says.

8 Kelvin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the seven day back up for Fred Kersley after racing last Saturday over 1400m here where he had the suck run behind the speed but didn’t finish the race off at all and was a bit on the plain side behind Success Play. Back in trip a week later I find interesting, about as interesting as the fact the stable gets Pike to steer. This isn’t a deep race so watch the market.

6 I’m All Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has run well at Belmont previously and I think is racing in pretty good form. She ran down the straight at Pinjarra last Thursday where she got back and was never a threat but didn’t mind the way she found the line late in the piece behind Squillionare. If she is within range 400m, I think she has the finale to be dangerous at a likely decent price.

Landed with 2 Secret Identity (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but not a great deal of confidence in an open race. He ran over 1400m here last time at the midweeks, giving them a start and a beating, rounding them up from the back for a big win. He was 1600m back to 1400m on the back up so getting a rise in trip again, noted wet tracker, I think he is a straight bat option.

4 Castillo Del Lago (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can certainly go on with it. That win came two weeks ago at this track/distance when leading throughout and credit to him, he was there to be run down, but he found under pressure to fend them off and get the win. Good racing style, wet ground no issue, he’ll take beating.

6 Bandalera Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Fred Kersley trained mare that resumed at the Provincials at Northam where she looked like she would need the run and that’s how it panned out when down the track behind Fortune’s Luck. Good upside to come and does like racing at Belmont, but the interesting lead is that Pike steers. Watch the market.

10 Wubin Gold (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks, potentially, a very nice horse, and think she’s the way to go. She is having start two for Colin Webster after winning impressively on debut last Wednesday over 1000m here where she had a beaut run in transit before being clicked up and gee she went through her gears like a nice horse to win impressively. Harder here and up to 1200m, but no reason why she won’t handle it.

1 Snow Prince (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the class of the field and that will carry him a long way towards victory. He was a busy horse as an Autumn 2YO in his opening prep, placing in the Perth Stakes before a down the track effort in the Karrakatta. He then came back to 1100m and won well before being spelled. Two trials under the belt to get ready and first up at 1200m tells me there is intent.

7 Cauldron (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver at odds. Neville Parnham trains this three year old, that debuted here two weeks back on testing ground where he was well specked at odds but didn’t quite go on with it after receiving pretty much every chance behind the speed. Not sure he’s good enough to win but did trial well prior to the debut, so I am not dismissing him.

3 Crescent City (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. He ran over 2000m last Saturday where the ride from Pike was just one of those Pike rides. Back last, ridden far too negatively and left the horse with too much to do. He charged to the line, clocking the best late splits of the race on a day where on speed was no disadvantage. Back in trip no issue and with a half positive steer, she’ll take beating.

5 Currimundi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat if the track is in the heavy range. He got those conditions a fortnight back at this track/distance and the end result was an impressive win, really finishing off his race hard to finish over the top of his rivals. If he gets his preferred wet conditions, he’s going to take some beating.

9 Advanced (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited back in trip for Hayden Ballantyne. He ran two weeks back over 2200m here and just found the trip a bridge too far, especially on heavy ground, behind noted swimmer The Dominican. Much better suited at the mile and if there is petrol left in the tank, he’s certainly dangerous enough to give this a shake.

5 Capital Flight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the straight bat option. He ran two weeks ago in the Ngawyni at this track/distance where he was near last in the small field but was able to slice through and drove hard late but had to settle for a narrow second to Charleton Eddie. Likely spots them a start off a good speed but will be stronger than most late and does like wet ground.

10 Vogue’s Choice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is back to 1000m but is flying for Hayden Ballantyne. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1200m here when leading throughout and credit to him, he was there to be run down but credit to him, he kept finding under pressure to fend them off and win. Back in trip should be fine and gets Pike aboard.

8 Olga Luisa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will look the winner for a fair chunk of the race. She is a ripping mare who only knows one way to run, which is fast. Couldn’t lead when racing three weeks back at this track/distance and tired late behind Puli, albeit wasn’t beaten far. If she finds the front and is allowed to jump, lead, roll, she’ll take running down.

With a heavy track on the cards, I think you have to be with 3 The Dominican (Bet Now:  $SP.00) given he is the swimmer in the field. He ran two weeks ago over 2100m here where he found a heavy track and lapped up the conditions best to win impressively, proving strong to the line. Back 100m in trip is no issue given this will be a slog and now he has a win on the board, he can go on with it.

9 Paigey’s Turn (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. This mare ran second to The Dominican a fortnight back here. She was given a lovely ride by Corver and for a few strides was hailed as the winner but she had no answers for the finale of the noted swimmer. Slightly back in trip is a tick and should the track somehow dry out, she comes right into play.

10 One Point Lady (Bet Now:  $SP.00) would love this track to try and dry out. She found firm footing at Northam two back and was too good before going to The Dominican race from two weeks back here where she struggled late to pick her feet up behind the noted swimmer. If the track is heavy, I think she is a first four chance at best. If the rain misses and we get a Soft5/6, she can win without shocking.

4 Duchess Of Gossip (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is creeping up in the relative weights but gee it’s hard to knock the way she’s racing for Dion Luciani. She has won her past two, both at this track/distance. Latest win three weeks ago where she was quite dominant from on speed, controlling the tempo before Pike clicked her up and she dashed clear to win well. Both wins have been sit/sprints, so I think she has petrol left in the tank, and with her racing pattern, she’ll take beating.

3 Lexington City (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will run his usual honest race. Simon Miller trained gelding that ran in the Duchess Of Gossip race from three weeks ago here where he attempted to lead throughout and he did try his guts out but had no answers late for the very much in form mare. Good racing style, in form and handles all conditions so he has to be given respect.

1 Famous Jurney (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider exotics. Jim Taylor trains this son of Universal Ruler that comes through the Goddess Of Giving race from two weeks back over 1000m here when near the speed throughout and tried hard but couldn’t quite sustain the speed of the 1000m gallop. Like him up to 1200m and with an economical run on speed, he’s dangerous.

4 Phanta (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems the straight bat option for Team Gangemi. He is three weeks between runs since an all the way triumph in the HG Bolton Sprint, producing sustained speed from the outset and giving nothing else a look in. The wet track should be fine and with his racing style, he’s going to give himself every chance and strikes a winnable Stakes race yet again.

9 Panzdown (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door and off last start, is hard to beat against these. He ran a few weeks ago in the Bolton Sprint, his first run in six weeks, and found the line strongly from off the speed when second to all the way winner Phanta. Fitter, if the gate is negated okay, I think he’ll be hard to hold out.

3 Notorious One (Bet Now:  $SP.00) resumes for Team Gangemi and we know his very best is certainly good enough to give this a shake. He is first up, having not raced since the Strickland when failing to see out the 2000m on wet ground behind Last of The Line. He is a 1400m-1600m horse IMO and does like getting his feet so I think he can run a cheeky race on the fresh side.

5 Sisu Warrior (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one to beat for me. Team Williams trained gelding that is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where he was given the A1 run behind the speed under Pike before angling clear and he looked all over the winner but couldn’t get past Kelvinator, who led throughout and kicked on too well. Very consistent animal that looks ready to win again.

11 Forever Classic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Neville Parnham. This mare ran last Wednesday at this track/distance where she led throughout and was quite impressive, kicking on strongly from the turn and maintaining a safe margin to the line. Going up to Saturday metro level now, but in form and with a good racing style, she’ll take running down.

8 Noble Born (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Simon Miller trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since March 4 over this trip at Ascot when producing an end of prep run, sitting on speed and failing to fire at all behind Blazing Tycoon. She is a mare who tends to save her best for Belmont and with a sharp trial under the belt, watch the market and see what it does.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Crescent City

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 4 Duchess Of Gossip

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 1 Cut The Talk

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 9, 10

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 4

Leg Four: 5

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