12/7/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Grafton, Ramornie Handicap day

The Grafton Carnival warms right up on Wednesday where it is Ramornie Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Ramornie Handicap 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Ramornie Handicap

History says the class horse wins this race and the class horse is clearly 1 Insider Trader (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Greg Hickman. He caused somewhat of an upset when winning at Hawkesbury last time but credit to him given he was several weeks between runs and was 2600m back to 2100m. Fitter, back up in trip, Bullock on, no depth…just wins this, and comfortably IMO.

The vast majority of these are bludgers whereas 9 Your Temptation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one that is the lightly raced/progressive type. He ran over this trip at Scone last time out where he got back in the run and tried to make a sustained move but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Fiorzana. He has that 2200m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

7 Mirann (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout hope if he brings anywhere near his best. He sat near the speed two weeks back at the Sunny Coast, somewhat against his pattern, and it didn’t work, as he tired in the straight to finish down the track behind Rations. He has always shown promise since arriving from overseas and this is a very winnable race of he found something near his best.

The stable love to target this Carnival and I reckon they have another nice one here in the shape of 11 The Statement (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who is on debut. Press Statement juvenile that has had two trials this time in to get ready for start one, the latest coming at Doomben where he moved quite nicely in behind the speed when second to Tango Fever, who is above average. Maps to get an ideal run and strikes a winnable race.

2 Burnt Butler (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win the maiden. Complete forgive first up at Murwillumbah when wide no cover for the trip, four wide, and tired late. He then went to Ballina where he was on speed but got a more economical run and kept finding under pressure, just missing out on the win. Hard fit, good racing style, he’ll give a sight.

12 Romi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an Exosphere filly for Dwayne Schmidt that is in with a shout. She resumes, having not raced since her debut here back in April where she bombed the start and that sealed her fate but didn’t mind the way she finished her race off. Given a good break and despite no public trials, I’d watch the market and see what it does.

1 Centre Bounce (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should start favourite come jump time and I am surprised she didn’t open favourite. Quality filly for Matty Dunn that is first up, having not raced since Feb 4 at Eagle Farm when producing an end of prep run, finishing down the track behind 1400m. Given a good break and I thought her recent Murwillumbah trial was a lovely piece of work. Gets run of the race from the gate and will be strong at the end.

3 Tres Redoute (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order for Desleigh Forster. Market wanted her with confidence when resuming at Lismore and despite a few nervous moments, class came to the fore and she was much too good for them. More depth to this line up but gets a good barrier and Jimmy Orman to steer so she has a bit going for her.

10 Parties Galore (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will concede a start but if they overdo it on speed, look for her to launch at them late. She ran over 1000m at Taree last week where she got back to near last in the run and failed to get involved when down the track. Has a gate to settle much closer in the run and with the claim, she gets in really well. For wider exotics, certainly include her.

Backing 2 Maximum Vortex (Bet Now:  $SP.00) to bounce back into the winners list. Ethan Ensby trained gelding that put together a couple of sparkling wins at this track to start his career before going to a Highway at Rosehill where he was a bit on the plain side when down the track behind Proverbial, who has won again since. Back to Grafton, back miles in depth, he’ll land on the speed and take running down.

3 Noble Missile (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order and is one of the key chances. He was backed with confidence when resuming at this track/distance but not much went right for him from a tricky gate, finishing third, beaten just over a length. Spokes does get on well with the horse and with good upside to come, rates highly.

Tony Newing sponsors the race so you’d assume that he’ll have 9 Single Touch (Bet Now:  $SP.00) ready to go. He resumes, having not raced since April 3 over this track/distance when back near last in the run but got clear air and rocketed to the line late behind I Am A Hit, finishing second. Not a noted fresh horse but with two nice trials under the belt, I’d watch the market and see what it does.

2 Oakfield Redgum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has got a win on the board and she can certainly go on with it. Damien Lane has done a super job with his team during the Carnival so far and he has this mare coming into this as a last start winner after she got the job done over the mile at Wyong, leading throughout and giving nothing else a look in. Should slide across comfortably from the gate, land near the front and prove hard to get past.

7 Daedalus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an honest gelding for Matty Dunn but gee she finds it hard to win. Looked like the win would come last start over 1550m at Murwillumbah but just couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow second to Four Mile Lane. Has run well at the track previously and gets run of the race from the gate. He only runs well.

5 Dresden (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one to keep an eye on. Tracey Bartley trained gelding that was a strong winner two back at Scone before going to the Provincials at Kembla where he went to 2000m and he found the trip, and class of race, a bit much. Back to the mile and back to this level, he can run a much improved race and can easily bounce back.

3 Betcha The Crown (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rises a fair bit in grade/depth but I think he goes pretty good for Desleigh Forster and with a kind map in his corner, I think he’s worth an each way ticket. He was a big winner I thought at Lismore last time given he was wide throughout, carried 61kg yet still finished best for an impressive win. He’ll get run of the race from the inside gate and be strong late.

2 Crafty Eagle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a tricky draw to overcome but he’s the best horse in the race and is hard to beat provided he gets across. He ran in the Winx Guineas last time at the Sunny Coast and was far from disgraced in defeat behind a potential star, Knight’s Choice. That form is A1 for this. Just a slight query with the gate but that aside, he’s clearly hard to beat.

8 He’s A Copy Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the quality of those high up in the market but he is a very genuine animal for Ross Stitt and I think is one for exotics you can certainly entertain. He got too far back at Taree last time at the mile but I liked the way he found the line in a good effort when fourth to Sukhbir. 1/1 at the track and if the tempo is genuine, look for him to finish off better than most.

11 Devil’s Throat (Bet Now:  $SP.00) only runs well IMO. The stable won this race last year with Ranges and Devil’s Throat has a similar profile. Very solid benchmark horse in Sydney that has come back a better horse. 2/2 this time in and each time he has attacked the line with purpose to win. Tick over trial was a good piece of work and with the speed expected to be hot in front, he’ll get his chance to sit back, get good cover and launch late.

8 Deepour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Adam Campton and confident he can measure up. He hasn’t raced since Ipswich Cup Day when producing one of the more electric wins of the Brisbane Winter Carnival, giving them a start and a beating in an outstanding display. Kept on ice with this race in mind and while he loses Orman, he gets KWT. Very likeable.

12 Hot Spring Gold (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to 1200m for Rob Heathcoate. Market said he’d need the run when resuming over 1000m at the Sunny Coast two weeks ago and he was very good from the back, working home with purpose behind Rubiquitous, beaten just under three lengths. Fitter and up to 1200m, can settle closer in the run, he’ll run well at odds.

8 Spiele (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a throw at the stumps in the get out. This mare is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Both runs this time in have come at Murwillumbah, First up she was far from disgraced fresh behind a city class horse, Cavaup, before going there again when back near last in the run and failed to make up any real impression. Jockey upgrade deluxe and if the gate can be used to advantage, I think she only runs well.

12 Intentional Lass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat for Matty Dunn if she can get luck from the wide draw. She is a few weeks between runs since racing at Lismore where she was close up in defeat after getting off the speed, finding the line well enough to run a close up fourth. Bullock takes over and although unproven at 1400m, the indication is she’ll be fine.

1 Mister Smartee (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had a couple of runs for Brett Bellamy and with Blinkers back on, there is intent. He resumed over 1300m on the home deck at Coffs Harbour and just looked in need of the run when down the track. Whether this is a prep run for the Coffs Carnival, not sure, but his best is clearly good enough to take this out.

BEST BET: Race One Number 1 Insider Trader

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Centre Bounce

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 11 Devil’s Throat

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 7

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 8

Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 11, 12

Leg Four: 1, 7, 8, 12

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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