Outside Carnival time, the biggest race day at Randwick is Melbourne Cup Day and nine races are set down for that meeting on Tuesday, with really good depth right across the board. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (11:40) : Quayclean Plate 1800m:
Back Me: 2 Betcha Thinking (Bet Now: $4.40) on top for me in a really tough race to kick off the program. He ran over 1550m under the lights at Canterbury last Friday night where he got a long way back in the run and was pretty much run off his legs early but picked up okay late in the piece. Clearly looking for further, which he gets, he has upside and I think on the bigger track, he’ll be more effective.
Big Danger: 5 Polemic (Bet Now: $2.80) comes through that same race Betcha Thinking contested. This Godolphin colt ran second to Show ‘Em and his effort was pretty good in defeat. He sat off speed before presenting on the turn to be a winning chance but just found one better, beaten a half length. Looks ready for the 1800m now and Avdulla steers.
Roughie: 3 Crimson Halo (Bet Now: $41.00) is a Sebring gelding trained by David Payne who took on the older and more seasoned campaigners last time out over 2100m at Wyong and his effort in defeat was tidy given he got held on the turn when appearing to have plenty to offer, and at Wyong, you can’t have your momentum stopped. Bigger track is a tick, back in trip is a tick and senior rider takes over.
Race Two (12:20) : McGrath Estate Agents ACT Handicap (66) 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Swampland (Bet Now: $3.50) looks the clear way to go here for me. She looked sharp at the Caulfield jump outs prior to resuming at Mornington where she sat back and finished hard to win before going to Caulfield Cup Day where she did a bit of work in the middle stages and fought on really well I thought behind Jennifer Lynn. Not as much depth here I suspect and being third up now, she should just about be ready fitness wise.
Big Danger: 1 Medaille (Bet Now: $4.20) was a bit luckless two back over 1300m at Warwick Farm before racing over 1400m at the same track where she was put outside the speed and controlled the race beautifully, giving nothing from behind her a look in. Rises 5kg in weight, which is a big query for mine, but I think she gets the good cart over from Lubiton and hopefully she gets a similar run to last start.
Roughie: 6 Deer Mountain (Bet Now: $5.50) is a consistent type for the Peter Robl yard who comes here off the back of a close up second at Kembla Grange a tick over three weeks back where she sat off speed and chased hard all the way down the straight but just couldn’t quite win. Randwick 1400m looks ideal and the 3kg claim for Heywood is a big tick.
Race Three (13:00) : Right2Drive Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Flow (Bet Now: $2.60) is a talented type for Godolphin that resumes here. He ran three times during the Autumn and on each occasion he was very good behind some quality types, including Swear and Skylight Glow. Trials leading in have been very sharp and he just needs luck from the tricky gate to look the winner.
Big Danger: 2 Silent Warrior (Bet Now: $4.50) resumed at Warwick Farm a tick under two weeks back and I thought his effort in defeat was pretty good considering he raced without cover most of the way on a genuine tempo. Should only improve off that, he draws well and stable is in very good form. Ticks a lot of boxes.
Roughie: 12 Sweet Adaline (Bet Now: $12.00) trialled well prior to resuming at Warwick Farm where she sat off speed and chased hard all the way when fourth to stablemate In Times Of War. Only has upside from that, she draws a soft gate and will love the step up in trip. Definite threat.
Race Four (13:40) : Girvan Waugh Handicap (78) 2400m:
Back Me: 5 Plot Twist (Bet Now: $4.80) reminded me of Michaelangelo earlier on in the prep…gee he was a slow bugger, but Team Snowden have found the trick to him now I think- get him on speed and make it a true contest, which is what they did last start at Kembla Grange and he was just too tough for them in the run to the line. I can only see upside with this horse and he will stay all day, compared to most here.
Big Danger: 1 Soviet Courage (Bet Now: $8.00) attempted to lead all the way over 2000m here a tick over a week back and I thought he stuck to the task pretty well in defeat behind My Giuliano. He too has upside fitness wise, and perhaps he will better ridden with cover? Not sure, but the claim for talented kiwi apprentice Lee Magorrian is noteworthy.
Roughie: 4 Cramming (Bet Now: $6.50) ran fourth at this track last time out behind in form stayer Broadside and I thought his effort was more than commendable given he was back in the ruck and the pace of the race set by Broadside didn’t really suit those looking to run on. He can sit closer in the run and if that eventuates here, he’ll be in the finish for sure.
Race Five (14:20) : McGrath Estate Agents NSW Handicap (67) 1300m:
Back Me: 9 Sanaya (Bet Now: $8.50) comes here off the back of a closing second at Warwick Farm behind Diddums, sitting back in the ruck and finishing off with purpose but was no match for the winner, who had a decent weight pull. Her record doesn’t read great, but this does look a suitable assignment.
Big Danger: 6 Otter (Bet Now: $4.60) had late market support when racing in a maiden at Kembla Grange and gee she was dominant. She led all the way and was there to be beaten given she ran along in front but she just kept going and careered away. This isn’t a strong race, so i think she can measure up.
Roughie: 7 Francais (Bet Now: $10.00) also comes through the Diddums race where she got held up a touch in the straight and just couldn’t build up any momentum at all. I think she will be better suited drawn outside horses so she can come wide and build up her running. She is a threat for sure.
Race Six (15:40) : McGrath Estate Agents VIC Handicap (72) 1200m:
Back Me: 9 Vaniloquio (Bet Now: $6.00) ran over 1000m at Warwick Farm last time out and gee he was stiff not to get the win. Got badly held up behind runners in the straight when having plenty to offer, and with a clear run, he wins and wins comfortably. Up to 1200m on a big track should really suit and Angland sticks.
Big Danger: 6 Realise Potential (Bet Now: $3.70) was enormous in defeat under the lights at Canterbury last time out given she did a power of work to sit on speed, which isn’t her normal racing pattern, yet she still stuck on very well to run a close up second to Demolition. Should get a dream sit off speed here and should be at peak fitness now.
Roughie: 1 Sonic Swish (Bet Now: $4.60) appears the overs at around the $7 mark. He is a quality animal that was formerly trained by Tim Martin but is now under the care of Chris Waller and he seems on track to run a beauty at his first outing for Waller judging on a sharp trial win at Rosehill. Tricky gate, but he has these on toast class and quality wise.
Race Seven (16:20) : Schweppes Choisir Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: Really keen to see how 10 Brook Road (Bet Now: $8.00) performs here. She ran some super races during the Autumn/Winter in high quality events, behind the likes of Two Blue, Kaepernick and Danish Twist, which is Group l form. She’s had two trials to prepare for her return and she flies fresh. Gee I think she can run a big race.
Big Danger: 2 Kaepernick (Bet Now: $4.20) is the clear class runner of the field so he has to be respected here. He comes through the Lightning (1100m) here where he got back near last in the run and finished off with real purpose late when second to the above average sprinter Spieth. Draws to get three wide cover and launch late.
Roughie: 1 That’s A Good Idea (Bet Now: $10.00) also comes through the Lightning where he was resuming and had a horror run, sitting wide no cover throughout so to be only beaten three lengths was full of merit. Draws much better now and has the potential to get a lovely sit off a hot speed. Outstanding second up record too, so he should take some beating.
Race Eight (17:00) : McGrath Estate Agents QLD Handicap (72) 1600m:
Back Me: 8 The Bull (Bet Now: $4.60) is a real example of the Tulloch Lodge bone and muscle. He is a tough on speed horse who just keeps finding when asked, and that summed up his win last start over 1400m at Hawkesbury. Lead looks his for the taking, and I have no issue with him running 1600m.
Big Danger: 13 Shanakee (Bet Now: $15.00) ran over the mile at Warwick Farm a couple of Wednesdays back and her effort was tidy behind Katswiri, but she did want to lay in a touch which is a bad trait to have. Needs to get that out of her system, but drawn wide, she’ll get three wide cover I suspect and look to launch late.
Roughie: 7 Rye (Bet Now: $19.00) could be the big improver here at a price. Hasn’t done a great deal in two runs this time in, but he is two from three when produced third up, and I think getting onto a bigger track, from a soft gate, could see him in the finish. Hard to trust, but each way definitely in a tough race.
Race Nine (17:35) : Viridian Lightbridge Handicap (67) 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Jemadar (Bet Now: $6.50) is a talented Sepoy gelding for Godolphin that comes here after kicking off his career with two runs on the Beaumont track at Newcastle, starting off with a dominant win before being tardy away next start and he just had to do a bit too much work. But to his credit, he was only beaten a lip and was coming again on the line. I think he can get over without too much hassle and rates highly.
Big Danger: 5 Lucky Fish (Bet Now: $4.40) is reaching is D-Day as to whether or not he is a contender or a pretender. He has shown glimpses of what he is capable of, but one win from 12 starts doesn’t read great. He attempted to lead all the way last time out but just tired late behind Dreamforce. Should get the run of the race from gate one and this is his chance.
Roughie: 6 Spanish Stride (Bet Now: $18.00) is a stayer that resumes for the in form Turner/Poletti stable. His best form is over further aka 2000m+, but he ran some quality races during the Autumn/Winter in much harder races than this and you always have to respect these handy stayers when they are first up. He could run a cheeky race at odds.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 8 Jemadar
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 9 Vaniloquio
VALUE: Race Seven Number 10 Brook Road
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 9, 12
Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 9, 10, 11
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 13
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8
$50 Investment= 3.47% of the dividend if successful
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