The race that stops a nation, the Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m), is finally here and the worlds best handicap race highlights a cracking ten race card at Flemington on Tuesday. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (10:40AM) : Ottawa Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Madeenaty (Bet Now: $1.60) was heavily backed when racing in the Maribyrnong Trial over this course/distance, showing super gate speed to lead comfortably and then when Zahra asked for the effort, he exploded and won with real class and authority. The time was very quick, especially for two year olds. Should only improve off that and horses that have had race experience generally perform well in this event.
Next Best: 3 Lucky Louie (Bet Now: $10.00) debuted in the Gimcrack and I thought her effort in defeat was pretty good considering she was unwanted in betting yet still ran well. Been given a break since and the form out of that race has held up via Madame Moustache. Rates highly for me, especially from the handy gate.
Danger: 10 From The Clouds (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Star Witness filly on debut for the Matt Laurie yard. She comes here off the back of a sharp trial win at Cranbourne a couple of Mondays back where she looked to go about her business very nicely. She looks precocious and can definitely be in the finish here.
Long Shot: 9 Carusmatic (Bet Now: $81.00) is a Domesday filly on debut for the in form Shane Nichols yard. She comes here off the back of a handy trial placing at Cranbourne when second to From The Clouds, where she was pushed at throughout the straight but still hit the line pretty well I thought. Drawn to get a good smother, and from there anything can happen. $26 does seem attractive.
Trifecta Tips: 1/3,9,10,18,19/3,9,10,18,19
Race Two (11:20AM) : Tab.com.au Trophy 1700m:
Back Me: 11 Model Dragon (Bet Now: $3.00) looks a well above average mare for Phillip Stokes. She resumed under the lights at Cranbourne where she sat off and looked a little lost on the turn but once she balanced up and Nolen gave her a click, it was race over, beating home a couple of handy types. Stable have had great success during Cup Week in recent years and this mare has the potential to continue that.
Next Best: 8 Sort After (Bet Now: $3.60) was very good in defeat I thought last time out at Randwick given she carried the big weight and ran them along in front. She could have dropped out but she kept finding and was only beaten 1.7L, plus she pulled up with a poor post race recovery. Maps very well here and she now tumbles to 54kg. Can see why she opened favourite.
Danger: 3 Every Faith (Bet Now: $8.50) could be one to include here as a knockout. She comes through the Tesio on Cox Plate Day where she was a real hidden run I thought behind Kaniana. Got a really good record at Flemington, has upside, and I think a hard run 1700m is going to be right up her alley. Around $8.50 at the moment…I’d want double figures. If she gets to that, a definite each way player.
Long Shot: 2 Metaphorical (Bet Now: $11.00) was very good in defeat at teh Valley in the Tesio given she was wide no cover throughout and from all reports, there was a stiff breeze that afternoon, so for her to only be beaten two lengths adds a bit of merit to her performance. Flemington 1700m looks ideal and just needs luck from the tricky gate to be right in the mix.
Trifecta Tips: 8,11/8,11/1,2,3,6,7
Race Three (12:00AM) : Prince Of Penzance Plate (96) 2800m:
Back Me: 3 Murphys Delight (Bet Now: $6.00) for me in a race where it looks a nightmare to sort out. He closed off strongly two back behind Broadside two back before backing up seven days later in the Tatts Cup (2400m) and beating all bar stablemate Junoob. He is a winner at the two miles in the Queensland Cup, so 2800m here will be ideal and he comes here with upside, and of course has the Waller polish.
Next Best: 11 Morning Mix (Bet Now: $5.00) will eat up the 2800m here. He ran over 2400m on Geelong Cup Day where he was very one paced but he kept finding and attacking the line to run a close up third to Super Haze. He too has great upside, stable is going pretty well at the moment and he should get a dream sit just off the speed for Katelyn Mallyon.
Danger: 7 Danjeu (Bet Now: $15.00) was first up in the Tatts Cup and gee I thought his run was full of merit given he was fresh at 2400m, which is highly unusual for any runner, let alone a Chris Waller runner. He comes here second up with fresh legs, and perhaps zip still left in the legs, compared to most here.
Long Shot: 8 Pinstripe Lane (Bet Now: $19.00) isn’t really one of my horses, but this could be the sort of race where he fires in. Ran okay in the Craven Plate behind Its Somewhat before going to Caulfield where he got back and made up ground behind Our Century and that was a day where making ground was difficult, so he gets a tick there. Up to 2800m appears as though it will suit and he is trained on the track which should help.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 3,7,8,9,11,16,17,18
Race Four (12:40) : Lavazza Prontissimo (90) 1400m:
Back Me: There was a lot of arrogance about the win of 3 Demonstrate (Bet Now: $1.55) on Geelong Cup Day. He was three wide no cover that day but looked to be bolting in the run and when McDonald gave him a squeeze, the race was all over. Bit of a step up here, but he is in a real purple patch at the moment and I just can’t go past him.
Next Best: 4 Sovereign Nation (Bet Now: $5.50) ran over this trip on Blue Sapphire Day at Caulfield and I thought he was very good in defeat behind Murt The Flirt given he got a long way back in the run and was held up a touch at the top of the straight and hit the line with real purpose. Back on his home track and he should just about be at peak fitness now.
Big Danger: 2 Sebring Sun (Bet Now: $11.00) has been bursting to win a race for Darren Weir and I think he can go close here. He comes through a Stakes race over 1200m at Caulfield where he stuck on well with purpose late to run third to impressive winner Keen Array. That’s the right form for a race like this and surely he has to look the winner at some stage.
Long Shot: 7 Magic Boy (Bet Now: $26.00) is a South Australian visitor who stuck on well two back on the Parks track behind Pepper The Pin in a race where the form has stacked up okay. He then went to Caulfield where he was back and wide all the way and looked to get a little lost on the turn, but he wound up late to run fourth. He will eat up the Flemington 1400m and should be getting close to his peak now.
Trifecta Tips: 3/2,4,7,13/2,4,7,13
Race Five (1:20PM) : Schweppes #FlemingtonFling 1000m:
Back Me: 4 Ashlor (Bet Now: $9.00) could be the fairytale country story of Cup Week. He is yet to taste defeat in three career outings, with the middle win coming against handy older rivals. The last start came at Echuca against his own age where he was heavily backed and duly saluted. Draws the right part of the track, he’ll be up on speed and we are yet to see him on a firm track…could be even more lethal.
Next Best: 17 Dream First (Bet Now: $14.00) comes here first up for Team Corstens after contesting the Blue Diamond lead ups where she ran well but wasn’t quite up to that level. Been given a really good break, and gee her jump outs have been outstanding to the eye. Drawn inside is some query, but I am hoping she’ll use her gate speed to perhaps find better ground.
Danger: 3 Biased Witness (Bet Now: $4.40) looked pretty good at the jump outs prior to resuming at the Valley on Manikato night where he got a fair way back in the run and had to come widest on the turn. By the time he did that, Conchita was off and gone for the prize. He should only have upside left and he did bolt in second up last time in and beat home a subsequent Stakes winner. Rates highly for me.
Long Shot: 13 Manuel (Bet Now: $8.00) has the potential to be the best horse in the race, but the package between his legs, I think, is the issue with him and his desire to win. He has been hard in the market in all three career outings, but is yet to taste victory, but gee his jump out on October 21 (Heat 6) was outstanding, bolting up to win by a space and running awfully sharp time.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 3,4,10,13,17
Race Six (2:00PM) : Lexus Hybrid Plate 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Faraway Town (Bet Now: $8.50) had market support when resuming in the Brian Crowley (1200m) at Randwick where she was run off her legs early in a brutally run race but once she balanced up she really hit the line with purpose to run second to the very impressive winner Spright. She should only improve up to 1400m and second up last time in she ran third to Yankee Rose in the Sires Produce. That reads so well.
Next Best: 6 My Country (Bet Now: $10.00) comes through the Thoroughbred Club (1200m) on Caulfield Guineas Day where she had the charmed run behind the tempo and presented to win the race but just found one better in Hear The Chant. She’s been a bit luckless this time in, but she should get the dream sit from the soft barrier and rates highly.
Danger: Most punters were disgusted with the run of 17 Sylpheed (Bet Now: $4.80) when she was a beaten odds on pop on Caulfield Cup Day, but really, her run was one of the best of the day, sitting wide no cover into that stiff breeze. She had every right to drop out and finish near last but in the end she was only beaten just under a length. Just needs normal luck here to be right in the mix.
Long Shot: 10 Quick Feet (Bet Now: $16.00) was heading down the Flight Stakes/Thousand Guineas path but Team Snowden pulled the pin and freshened her up. Looks to have done wonders with her because she looked trial well at Rosehill last Monday, going through the motions under a really good hold. Draws to get a sweet trip here, Bowman steers if the track remains firm, she’ll take some beating.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 3,6,8,9,10,12,17
Race Seven (3:00PM): Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m:
Back Me: He has had the unconditional path towards the Melbourne Cup, but gee I really like 17 Almandin (Bet Now: $10.00) here. He has been dominant at his past two starts, starting off with a romp in the Harry White Classic (2400m) before qualifying for the Melbourne Cup after a spank job of his rivals in the Bart Cummings (2500m). Going back to his form overseas, when he had a break between runs of around four/five weeks, he bolted up by eight lengths. Two miles is no issue, he is well weighted and gets the services of McEvoy, who is riding in super form.
Next Best: I originally didn’t have 20 Oceanographer (Bet Now: $9.00) in the mix, but how could you not ignore him after what he did in the Lexus (2500m) on Saturday. He really had no right to win the race given the way the race was run and considering how far back he was in the run, but he just flattened right out and savaged the line to win. He’ll eat up the two miles here, so well in at the weights, and is the hard fit runner. The only negative is 3 runs in 13 days on hard tracks. On the flip side, the stable can do no wrong.
Danger: I am really warming to 13 Heartbreak City (Bet Now: $19.00) as a winning chance. He is predominately a jumper, but one thing he does have is a lethal turn of foot. Produced that to win over the jumps at Galway before going to the famous Ebor Handicap at York where he had the charmed run behind the speed and when he was clicked up, he just exploded. He’ll stay, he handles all conditions, has a turn of foot…he ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: I think the horse at a silly price is 2 Our Ivanhowe (Bet Now: $51.00). I thought he was the sleeper from the Caulfield Cup (2400m), getting held up a touch in the straight before eventually getting clear and he worked home with purpose, attacking the line strongly. Ran an unlucky race in the Cup last year, so we don’t know if he’ll run two miles, but the signs are clearly there he will.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 2, 6, 8, 12, 13, 16, 17, 20
Fixed Quinella Tip: Almandin + Heartbreak City (Bet Now: $151.00)
Have Your Say: Who is your Melbourne Cup Tip? – Leave a comment below.
Race Eight (4:00PM) : James Boags Premium Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: Keen to stick solid with 17 Plot The Course (Bet Now: $8.50). Been on his back every start this prep and he hasn’t let me down, which included last start on Blue Sapphire Day at Caulfield where he blended into the race perfectly and had all the momentum out wide compared to his main rivals nearer the inside who were stuck behind horses. Walker, I think, should take advantage of gate one, 1800m is no issue and he is fourth up here, so he should have fresh legs.
Next Best: 14 Fabrizio (Bet Now: $2.50) set up a brutal tempo in the Epsom and punctured late behind Hauraki. He then raced at the same track/distance in a much easier race and controlled the tempo much better aided by a sweet steer from Josh Parr. Lead looks his for the taking, and I don’t think up to 1800m will be an issue, especially with the Tulloch Lodge bone and muscle.
Danger: The interesting one is 10 Tashbeeh (Bet Now: $12.00). He was wide with cover last time out here over 1400m and just couldn’t get into the race when finishing midfield behind Ulmann. There isn’t much early speed here onpaper, so I think if he can ping over and lead, and perhaps take catching at a price because the form prior reads so well.
Long Shot: I think there is one here at really good odds to include 11 Tucanchoo (Bet Now: $19.00). He resumed over 1400m in the Weekend Hussler on Caulfield Guineas Day where he got back in the run and worked home okay late without threatening behind the above average Chetwood. Subsequent form out of that race has been okay, but I think second up at the Flemington 1800m will really suit.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 1,5,9,10,11,13,14,17
Race Nine (4:40PM) : MSS Security Sprint 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Secret Agenda (Bet Now: $10.00) was a dominant winner of the How Now before going to the Northwood Plume where she got back and wide in the run, plus she was on a rock hard track and she didn’t seem to let down at all behind the well performed Sheidel. Third up now, so she should be ready fitness wise and I am banking on the forecast for showers to be right so she can get her toe, because she grows a leg with give in the track.
Next Best: 11 Sir Bacchus (Bet Now: $4.60) was an absolute tragedy beaten two back at the Valley before racing there again on Manikato Night where he was given an absolute peach from McEvoy and despite getting into a bumping duel in the early part of the straight, he lengthened out hard when balanced and got the win. Looking for 1400m I suspect, but I am happy enough to be on him here, because he will very strong late compared to most.
Danger: 16 Flippant (Bet Now: $16.00) comes through the Alinghi on Caulfield Cup Day and just forget she went around given she was in a bumping duel down the entire straight with Almighty Girl and had no momentum, or hope for that matter. She draws to stalk the speedy Faatinah, and I think she could be a big improver here if she brings her A Game.
Long Shot: I think Darren Weir tried to make 12 Hijack Hussy (Bet Now: $34.00) a middle distance/staying type, and she just didn’t react to that during the Adelaide Carnival. Resumes here at 1200m which is important to note because her best efforts under Weir and when formerly trained by Tony Gollan have been at sprint trips and she does like racing at Flemington. Drawn the right part of the track, I can see her sitting back and launching late.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 1,3,5,6,11,12,13,16
Race Ten (5:15PM) : THE HKJC Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Egyptian Symbol (Bet Now: $5.50) looks one of the better bets on the program to my eye. She trialled like Black Caviar prior to resuming at Randwick where she was ridden as if she was the best horse in the race and duly saluted, bolting up and running time. Can only see upside with her here and she did produce an outstanding run in defeat second up last time in behind the well performed Southern Legend. Hard to beat.
Next Best: If you backed 15 Shillelagh (Bet Now: $8.50) in the Tristarc, I’m stating the obvious here, but just forget she went around. She looked to be going sweetly in the run and could have been a threat, but as she was going for the run, she got badly held up and then got chopped out and it was remarkable she didn’t fall. Drawn to be out of trouble here and she now gets the services of Moreira. Ticks plenty of boxes.
Danger: 9 Just A Blur (Bet Now: $51.00) comes through the Egyptian Symbol race where she had three wide cover and just couldn’t quite ping in the straight when beaten four lengths. She does get a 2.5kg weight swing on that mare here and does draw better. She’ll have admirers at a price.
Long Shot: 5 Vibrant Rouge (Bet Now: $41.00) is getting on in years but gee she is racing well. She ran in the Mares race on Geelong Cup Day and didn’t have the best of luck in the run, getting held up several times down the straight and by the time she got clear, Rockolicious had all the momentum out wide and pounced. The run prior at this track/distance was a ripper and she does appear well placed at this weight scale.
Trifecta Tips: 2/3,5,6,7,9,15/3,5,6,7,9,15
BEST BET: Race Ten Number 2 Egyptian Symbol
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Demonstrate
VALUE: Race Seven Number 17 Almandin
Early Quaddie Tips (Races Three Through To Six):
Leg One: 3, 7, 8, 9, 11, 16, 17, 18
Leg Two: 3
Leg Three: 3, 4, 10, 13, 17
Leg Four: 3, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 17
$50 Investment= 22.32% of the dividend if successful
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 2, 6, 8, 12, 13, 16, 17, 20
Leg Two: 1, 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 17
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 16
Leg Four: 2
$50 Investment= 9.76% of the dividend if successful
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