11/4/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, WATC Derby day

A bumper ten race card has been assembled for Ascot this Saturday where it is WA Derby Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

WATC Derby 🏆: View the Field for the WATC Derby

WATCH LIVE RACING AT

tab

3 Captain Kink (Bet Now: $3.80) is a son of Sessions for Brett Pope that resumes. Debuted back in September over 1200m at Belmont when wide no cover on speed throughout and battled away well in defeat to run fourth. Latest trial for him cam back on Feb 10 at Lark Hill when pushed out and won. Market will tell you if he’s forward enough or not.

1 Stella Door (Bet Now: $1.95) has always been a barrier trial and I learned my lesson last prep that he is pretty much only going to be that. Confidently supported when resuming at this track/distance last Wednesday when on speed and giving a good kick but couldn’t quite finish it off, again. Can win, but I happy to watch him win without me on because he can’t be trusted to attack the line and get the job done.

6 King Cruzer (Bet Now: $17.00) is a son of Universal Ruler that is on debut. Has had three trials, but all of which came last year. Latest of the three was on November 27 at Belmont so hard to really get a guide on him, but overall, this looks a very weak maiden, so he doesn’t have to be anything special to be competitive.

Going to give 3 Captain Burglar (Bet Now: $7.00) another chance. Was really keen on him running well when he debuted here two weeks ago. Eased back to near last from the wide gate and while he was never a winning threat, he did make up good ground off a slow tempo. He can sit much closer in the run from the inside gate and confident he goes close.

1 Our Boy Dylan (Bet Now: $2.10) won the race mentioned from a fortnight back when Harvey was on. Jumped well to land on speed outside the leader, controlled things and was just far too good for them in the straight. Gets run of the race again from the barrier you would assume and looks the one to beat on form.

Back to 1000m is potentially a big negative for 7 Baburizza (Bet Now: $12.00) but he does look to have his share of ability. Debuted over 1100m here last Wednesday where he was back near last in the run, very raw/new to the caper, but balanced up late and was very good the final 75-100m. If this was 1200m, clearly on top. Just not sure back to 1000m is the A1 set up.

9 Tradensia (Bet Now: $8.00) for me. Michael Lane trains this filly, who is first up after a two run prep on her home track at Bunbury to start her career in the Spring, winning the second start before being spelled. Gee she has looked great in a couple of trials, the latest one only seeing her beat one runner home, but could have finished much closer if Parnham sneezed on her. Happy to be in her corner.

1 Son Of A God (Bet Now: $1.95) is flying for Simon Miller. Took on the older horses just under two weeks ago at Pinjarra when wide no cover for the trip but once Pike clicked him up, away he went and he was far too good for them. Back to his own age I do like. The question is what upside does he have left? Perhaps he just has to hold his form to win?

Back up to 1200m should suit the Vaughn Sigley trained 5 Rocky Path (Bet Now: $14.00). Was 1200m back to 1100m last Saturday here when back in the run in a fast run race. Run off her legs but balanced up late and was good behind Cliffs Of Comfort. Like her back up to 1200m and does get in well at the weights after the claim.

Hoping sustained speed can come to the fore in the shape of 4 Condor Heroes (Bet Now: $6.00), who has had a few home since day one, but now finds himself in WA with Chris Gangemi. He’s always been a barrier trial star, but was really taken by the trial win at Belmont, smashing the clock under a relatively good hold. Think he finds a perfect race to resume in and happy to be in his corner.

In the corner of the Holly Locke trained 2 Sweet Dreamin’ (Bet Now: $7.50). Two weeks between runs since racing over 1200m here when wide no cover for the trip, four wide in fact, and did a great job to stick on like he did when third to Cryptic Love. Back to 1000m is interesting but the hot speed should ensure he relaxes in the run, and he’ll be strong at the end.

7 Route Eighty Eight (Bet Now: $13.00) is on the seven day back up for Lindsey Smith after resuming over this track/distance last Saturday where she was last in the run and never really in the hunt but did make up ground late behind Kramden. Has run okay on the quick turnaround before…could I back her to win? No, but is one for multiples.

The efforts of 9 Mystery Miss (Bet Now: $2.50) this time in suggest she might not have come back as well as previous campaigns, but for me, the massive tick is Pike going on. This mare has won five times, and each of those wins has seen Pike steering and the Wizard is back on for the first time this prep. Truly run mile should be ideal for her and she’ll be strong at the end.

10 Patristic (Bet Now: $5.50) has been up a fair while but has had some runs spaced. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1400m here when on speed and putting pressure on. Tried hard late but couldn’t quite finish it off when fifth to Red Can Man. He does save his best for the mile and if he can get to the front, he’ll take some beating.

6 Bella’s Idol (Bet Now: $11.00) is the interesting runner. Comes through the Mr Kunafa race from two weeks ago, the same race as Mystery Miss. This gelding was awful after seemingly getting every chance nearer the speed. The gear changes are intriguing. The dread Bar Plates are on, but on the positive front, the Blinkers go back on.

1 King Blitz (Bet Now: $4.20) on top. On the quick back up after racing at Pinjarra last Sunday when three and four wide for the trip yet despite that hard run kept coming and was very good in defeat behind Fire Maker. He’s racing as if the 1600m will suit him and from the gate, should get every chance and perhaps a soft run to somewhat overcome the impost of 62kg.

4 Tollman (Bet Now: $3.60) has done little wrong in his career to date for Paul Roberts. A month between runs since racing at this track/distance when near the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Mr Kunafa, who franked that form by winning a week later. He’s had the mile run at metro level under the belt and finds a winnable race.

The rise to 1600m should be perfect for the David Harrison trained 12 On The Turps (Bet Now: $7.50), who ran over 1400m here two weeks ago where he again found the line with purpose from the back behind Yadreamin’. Yet to prove himself beyond 1200m, but the way he is racing at the moment, the rise to 1600m should be a tick and is a knockout chance.

Want to give 1 Dark Choice (Bet Now: $12.00) another chance. Month between runs since racing at this track/distance where she copped a heavy bump at the start and that pretty much sealed her fate when sixth to Mr Kunafa in a good effort all things considered. The query being the gap between runs and remaining at 1600m given she is the Oaks winner from last year. Does she want further? Banking on class.

6 Divine Shadow (Bet Now: $5.50) is bursting to win a race. His racing pattern is awful but he has been an eye catcher in all three runs back from a spell. Ran over 1400m here two weeks ago when back near last in the run and finishing off hard behind Yadreamin’. If he can sit a pair or two closer in the run, he’ll be very dangerous.

10 La Bionda (Bet Now: $19.00) is a sneaky blowout chance for Colin Webster. Comes back to the mile after racing over 1800m here last Wednesday where she closed off strongly from the back when second to Baramagic. Does no work from the inside gate and if this becomes a truly run mile, that 1800m run under the belt should hold her in good stead.

The $1.60 looks a gift for 4 Tuscan Queen (Bet Now: $1.50). Off what she did in the Oaks, she should be $1.10-$1.20. Since the Blinkers have been applied, she’s gone back to her best, highlighted of course by her spank job in the Oaks under Pike. To me, the fillies have a good margin on the boys over a staying trip so it’s all about Tuscan Queen. Good thing of the weekend.

5 Naughty By Nature (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Jason Miller trained filly that ran second to Tuscan Queen in the Oaks. She was back nearer the inside and got out in time to threaten but wanted to lay in somewhat under pressure, but at the same time, Tuscan Queen was comfortably holding her rivals. Runs well, likely runs second again.

6 Pambelle (Bet Now: $19.00) does have her share of talent but upstairs, she’s not quite there. Comes through the WA Oaks where she was very keen midrace so Parnham let her stride around 700m out to take the lead but in turn, it just set the race up perfectly for Tuscan Queen. If she produces better racing manners, can definitely fill a first four spot.

4 Adornment (Bet Now: $2.80) has somewhat turned it up at her past couple but I’ll give her one more chance. Was 2200m back to 1800m two weeks ago here. Looked to get a sweet steer from Pike and was there to win, but just found one too good in Mr Kunafa, who is flying at the moment. Think up to 2100m suits her better than Mr Kunafa, so leaning her way, just.

1 Mr Kunafa (Bet Now: $4.50) is handling every challenge superbly at the moment. Lovely ride from Whiting saw him win over the mile two back before stepping up to 1800m a week later and finishing hard late to nab Adornment near the line. Loses Whiting but gets the claim for McNaught and off his recent runs, 2100m should be okay without declaring he’ll eat it up.

I like 3 Paddy’s Shadow (Bet Now: $11.00) back up in trip. Good fourth over 2200m here two back before coming back to 1800m in the Mr Kunafa race and just didn’t have the change up speed over the shorter trip. Like him up in distance again and draws to sit nearer the speed. Off his win three back, he’s certainly in the mix.

8 Celebrity Queen (Bet Now: $2.00) is the one. Talented filly for Team Williams who won well against the older horses three weeks ago over 1100m under a confident steer from Pike. She didn’t explode to put them away, but knuckled down the final 100m when Pike got stuck in. She’s looking like a filly that clearly wants further so happy to be in her corner.

11 Glasgow Girl (Bet Now: $10.00) should love the rise to 1200m. Resumed over 1000m here two weeks ago in a pretty strong sprint race and worked home very strongly from off the pace behind impressive winner Mervyn. Second up record isn’t great, but off the resumption, she’s returned in good order and is a leading chance IMO.

For wider multiples, I’d be including 10 Friar’s Gift (Bet Now: $61.00). Resumed over this track/distance two weeks ago where he was wide with cover and tried to get into the race but just whacked away behind Cryptic Love. He is a second up winner and from the better draw, can sit closer in the run and do no work. Knockout contender.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Tuscan Queen

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 4 Condor Heroes

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 9 Tradensia

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 6, 10, 13

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 1, 4

Leg Four: 3, 6, 8, 10, 11

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

Bookmaker	Why Bet	Sign Up	Full Review
	Back Yourself with Ladbrokes!	Join	Review
	Back a Winner with Neds!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review