11/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Newmarket Handicap day

A bumper nine race program has been set down for Flemington on Saturday where it is Newmarket Handicap Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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Newmarket Handicap 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Newmarket Handicap

4 Shock Em Ova (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will love getting to the big track. Both runs back from a spell have come at The Valley, the latest being on Feb 17 where he got badly held up before eventually getting clear and finding the line with purpose when second to Alverdun. Hard fit now, genuine tempo, bigger track, upside, I think he’s good enough to take this out.

3 Independent Road (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win a race. Team Hayes trained gelding that ran in the Nobel Heights race from three weeks ago here. I thought McNeil gave him a peach ride and he was there to win when clear but he couldn’t quite finish the job, eventually settling for a third. That was his first run in four weeks so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

1 Alverdun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won the race at The Valley mentioned above that Shock Em Ova ran second in. He got control on speed and stole a winning break on the turn while the runner up was getting held up and not getting a chance to build momentum. That said, the winner was impressive given he was 1500m to 2040m, so he has that run under the belt and should hold him in good stead.

I’m with 6 What You Need (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Just how good is he? Not sure, but I think he goes really good. He won like a jet on debut at Geelong in the Spring and looked a Coolmore Stud horse but he was spelled. Been given a good break and was given a good hitout to win a Cranbourne jumpout last week in fast time. That looked to be on a shifty track so back on the firm deck here, Melham sticks, he’ll do me.

7 Fasuto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the key threat. Clinton McDonald trained three year old that resumes after a two run prep in the Summer, bolting up fresh in a Kyneton maiden before a solid third in a rich VOBIS race at The Valley behind She Dances. His recent Cranbourne jumpout was pretty good and drawn out, he’ll get clear air from the outset and is hard to beat.

5 Tan Tat Magic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done an excellent job since joining Gavin Bedggood. 2/2 for the stable, winning with style at Moe before proving that was no fluke, making a mess of them at The Valley. Was down to run last Saturday here but has been kept on ice for this race and the way he’s racing, he has to be respected despite the depth being strong.

6 Razeta (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a proven Flemington performer that for mine, is racing like she wants a mile, which she gets here. She comes through the strong Sydney races, resuming with an eye catching effort in the Light Fingers before being far from disgraced in the Surround behind Sunshine In Paris in a race which had far more depth than this. Did win here on Oaks Day and she’s racing like she wants further, which she gets, and gets B Shinn.

7 Papillon Club (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have been set for the race. Strong winner here on New Years Day before having a mini break and going to The Vanity where she was parked near the speed throughout and battled on pretty well in defeat behind Wollombi, running third. Better for the run under the belt, up in trip, she is one of the main threats against these.

9 Eternal Flame (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly that I think can measure up for Mick Kent. Brilliant finale from the back to win her maiden two back at Pakenham before going to the Angus Armanasco where they rode her negative and I thought she found the line really well late without threatening behind Shuffle Dancer. Racing like a rise in distance is ideal and she will be strong at the end.

3 Ganbare (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has looked a Sires horse for a couple of runs now so getting to 1400m here, he’ll take beating. He ran two weeks ago in the Skyline at Randwick where he got back to near last in the run and was never a threat but was very good late in the piece behind Corniche. He wants more ground, he gets that here and I don’t think this race, as a whole, is strong.

5 Fistoffury (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks suited up to 1400m for Team Hawkes. Dominant debut win over 1200m at Pakenham before going to 1300m at Sandown where he loomed to win but given the sit/sprint set up, he just couldn’t quite sustain the run, just missing out on picking up Freakofnature. He’s bred to eat up 1400m and I think the tempo will be more genuine, which should suit him.

6 Freakofnature (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the key contenders. Jason Warren trains this son of Snitzel, that was met with solid market support when debuting at Sandown over 1300m. Got the beaut sit behind the speed before angling into clear air and finished best, proving too good for Fistoffury. You’d think there is good improvement off that and commands respect.

4 Excelida (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is confirmed to run here, and with that in mind, she’s the best on the program. I did this race thinking she would go to the Coolmore but now she is here, it is a case of good luck beating her. Her run here three weeks ago behind Annavisto was enormous after being tardy away, finishing off with real purpose late in the piece. 1600m should be fine and off the last run, she’s clearly the one to beat.

6 Elusive Express (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate getting to 1600m. She resumed over 1400m here three weeks ago and in a race dominated by the leader, Annavisto, Elusive Express had little hope, but didn’t mind the way she finished her race off, albeit six lengths from the winner, but the late splits were solid. Love her up in trip and should be able to settle closer in the run.

5 Sirileo Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look. The race shape of the Tony Bourke Memorial was totally against her. She was first up and they just ran from the outset. She couldn’t get a chance to get into a rhythm so be forgiving of the effort. Outstanding second up record, up to the mile and a more gentle tempo, she appeals big time as a key winning chance.

1 Huetor (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a class runner of the field and I think dropping miles in grade/depth, he appeals. He resumed in the Chipping Norton two weeks ago at Randwick and was solid enough at WFA behind the champion that is Anamoe. WFA racing, at the top level, isn’t his go. This looks a significant drop down and up in trip, his preferred dry ground, I think he only runs well.

3 Vow And Declare (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned in pretty good order. Ended the Spring prep on a high with a Zipping Classic triumph. He resumed at Sandown and against the race shape, he did a really good job in defeat to run second to Right You Are. Good second up record and sitting off a genuine tempo, he’ll take beating.

11 Yaphet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Cliff Brown trained gelding I have time for. Did more than enough fresh at Sandown behind Here To Shock before racing there again in the Peter Young, clearly outclassed on paper, but I thought he ran a super race in defeat from the back when sixth to Steinem, beaten just over four lengths. Getting to 2000m and hard fit, he appeals as one of the key chances.

16 Buenos Noches (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the better each way gambles of the weekend. He’s a very good colt for Matty Smith who has been set for the race and for mine, is flying. Handicap dodging ride in the Lightning but loved the way he found the line late behind Coolangatta. Returned to Sydney and his trial win at Warwick Farm was electric. Right down in the weights, 1200m, strong late…I just can’t see how he doesn’t run well.

15 In Secret (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have been set for the race and given how good she is, she’s really well in at the weights. She ran in the Surround (1400m) a fortnight back and to the eye, she had every chance, but she did have to cut back inside and the fence was clearly no good. That, and I also think 1400m is a bridge too far, so back to 1200m and back down the straight, she appeals big time to bounce back.

9 Lofty Strike (Bet Now:  $SP.00) only runs well. He has been dynamic in both runs back from a spell. Resumed with a brilliant win in the Rubiton before going to the Oakleigh Plate where he got a mile out of his ground but wound up with purpose late in the piece when second to Uncommon James. Proven down the straight and getting to 1200m, look for him to sit back and launch at the end.

I reckon 8 Visinari (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is ready to run a bold race fresh. He did a really good job in the Spring, headlined by a first up win at this track/distance before solid efforts in the Crystal Mile and Cranbourne Cup respectively, races which had more depth than this. Recent Cranbourne jumpout was a lovely piece of work and should lob into a lovely spot from the gate. Hard to beat.

It’s hard to get away from 1 Scallopini (Bet Now:  $SP.00). O’Dea/Hoysted have had a fab campaign in Melbourne with their runners, including this guy, who won The Elms at this track/distance three weeks ago, producing sustained speed from the front and giving nothing else a look in. Munhamek franked the form last Saturday and he does to excel at the track/distance. If he can overcome the tricky gate, he’ll take running down once again.

11 Biometric (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another that loves the Flemington 1400m and is a key threat. He ran second to Scallopini in The Elms and tried his guts out but given it was his first run since New Years Day, condition just gave way. He’ll take really good improvement from that and if he can settle a pair closer in the run, he’ll take beating I’d suggest.

7 Dream Hour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. To me, he looks like a SA Derby horse. He resumes for the Griffiths/De Kock camp, having not raced since the Sandown Guineas when producing an end of prep run, finishing down the track behind See You In Heaven. He’s two jumpouts to get ready have been strong, the latest being a win over 1400m, so he’s had the grounding to run well fresh and will be strong late.

Fitter and up in trip are two big ticks for 2 Meridius (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Lloyd Kennwell trained colt that resumed in the Zeditave at Sandown and was pretty good from near last on the turn, beaten three lengths by Recommendation. Last time he was at 1400m, he ran second to Aft Cabin, who was Winx 2.0 once upon a time at the time. Up in distance, upside, can settle closer in the run, dangerous for sure.

12 Zoupurring (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has talent for Team Corstens. Maiden win came last Wednesday at Sandown when leading throughout and was a sharp winner, giving nothing else a look in. The overall time was just fair, but did come home pretty nicely and off that effort, 1400m here should be fine. Has the right racing style and is up and running. Leading contender.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 4 Pavitra

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Shock Em Ova

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 7 Dream Hour

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 7, 11

Leg Two: 3, 5, 9, 15, 16

Leg Three: 1, 4, 8, 11

Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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