11/12/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Mornington

Mornington will play host to an eight race card on Wednesday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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1 Longcross (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top nut not really a race I want to get involved in. He is on debut for Mark Walker after formerly being in NSW under the care of Matty Smith where his trial work was good. Had a Cranbourne jumpout and seemingly moved well enough I thought. Not a deep race this so happy to be in his corner.

10 Thelma’s Bel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will land on the bunny, which is no disadvantage at Mornington. She debuted over 1000m at Moe when attempting to lead throughout and she gave a solid enough kick but just couldn’t quite see it through when fourth. Better for the run, home track advantage, she takes running down.

5 Limb Runner (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Corstens/Larkin trained mare that resumes. She is first up, having not raced since July 16 at Ballarat Synthetic when on speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite see it through and tired late. Good racing style and has jumped out well for the return.

1 Eclipsion (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the key threat. He ran on Kilmore Cup Day over the mile, attempting to lead throughout, and he gave a strong kick, but just felt the pinch late and was run down. Tricky draw, but should slide across, get front end control and be hard to get past.

6 Sheer Shame (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to the mile. He was 1500m back to 1400m on Wodonga Cup last time out where he got too far out of his ground and while he was never a winning threat, he did make up ground and was good in defeat. He’ll run a positive race.

8 Wokou (Bet Now:  $SP.00) jumps straight to the mile after resuming over 1200m at Bairnsdale when on speed but didn’t find much under pressure, feeling the pinch and ran out of condition. Jumps straight to 1600m, good upside and has the right racing style.

7 Sacrify (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets the nod for me. Neasham/Archibald trained gelding that resumes. He had a two run in the early part of the Spring to start his career, the latest coming at Cranbourne on October 2 when wide no cover and feeling the pinch. Given the break and has jumped out well for the return.

6 Parch (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a query at 1200m but with front end control, he’ll be hard to get past. Latest run came a few weeks ago over 1000m at Caulfield Heath when on speed and giving a decent sight but just couldn’t quite see it through. If he gets a cheap lead, he’ll look the winner for a long way.

5 Enright (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver on firmer footing, having not raced since Kilmore Cup Day when struggling on the bog ground and failed to fire in a total forgive after being well supported throughout. Firmer deck and fitter, not penning him.

4 Mrs Artie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am siding with, and with a fair degree of confidence. She was well tried at odds when debuting over 1300m at Geelong where she got a fair way out of her ground and while she was never a winning threat, she did make up ground and was pretty good in defeat. Much better suited here in a weaker maiden, home track advantage…like her.

3 Lavender Glory (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win. Track/distance placegetter last time out when running third and while she was good in defeat, she did have every chance. Maps perfect once again and overall, this isn’t an overly deep contest.

10 Toroness (Bet Now:  $SP.00) ran down the track in the maiden that Lavender Glory contested at this track/distance. She got off speed and while she did have her chance, she was a touch keen in the run and just couldn’t finish it off. Better racing manners, more positive ride, she will run an improved race.

6 Santasia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for Team McEvoy, having not raced since Kyneton Cup Day on Nob 6 when attempting to lead throughout and giving a decent enough kick but just couldn’t quite see it through. Back to 1000m with fresh legs, good racing style, she takes beating.

3 Azeezle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the watch horse. He returns to racing for Team Freedman as a gelding. He hasn’t raced since August 10 at The Valley when down the track but close up in defeat behind Blue Stratum. He has jumped out well for the return and strikes a winnable contest.

1 Maximum Power (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Corstens/Larkin trained gelding that resumes. He is first up, having not raced since Aug 23 when a dominant all the way winner at Geelong, getting front end control and gave nothing else a look in. 1000m is on the short but a good racing style and has seemingly found a winnable race.

5 Milo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a big price here I feel. He resumed over 1200m at Ballarat where he just got too far back in the run and couldn’t get a drag into the race. Total forgive as far as I’m concerned. Maps to settle much closer in the run and his best is more than good enough.

7 Buades (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat here. He comes here off the back of a maiden win at this track/distance where he was on speed and credit to him, he was there to be beaten but he found to fend them off and win. Harder here, but looks the leader and has scope/upside.

2 Mystic Mac (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Chris Meagher trained gelding that resumes. He comes down from Queensland where he did some nice things up there, winning a couple of races in town. He has jumped out well enough to my eye and has a good racing style, so keen to see how he goes.

1 Korobeiniki (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous if she’s within range. She got too far out of her ground at Pakenham last time and while she was never a winning threat, she did make up good headway to finish fifth, beaten 4.5L. She’ll get back but with a drag into the race, she’s worth an each way ticket.

2 Rockabilly Rebel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Payne trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since Sep 24 when ending the campaign on a high, winning at Swan Hill in a good effort from off the speed. Likely spots them a start but should be strong at the end.

3 High Tor (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t done much wrong in two career runs. Strong debut winner here before going to Geelong when tackling a stronger race and didn’t disgrace herself in defeat when third to Stay Humble. Back to the home track, good racing style, she appeals.

10 Queen Of Tayrona (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a throw at the stumps in the get out for Dylan Dunn. She has been racing pretty well without winning in recent times. Latest run was over 1700m at Geelong when on speed and kept on in a good effort in defeat when second to Flying Celia. Trip should be fine and gets in well after the claim.

1 Capulet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a couple of weeks between runs for Team McEvoy, placing at Caulfield Heath when near the speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite get there. Maps to get run of the race and has the class factor on her side here.

5 Magnolia Lodge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a definite winning chance. She ran over this trip at The Valley last time when back near last in the run and kept finding the line against the race shape behind Rise To It. Back to this level, more positive ride, she can win for sure.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 4 Mrs Artie

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Eclipsion

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 5 Milo

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 6

Leg Two: Field

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5

Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 8, 10

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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