A strong eight race card will be run and won at Belmont on Saturday, with the Listed Farnley Stakes (1400m) the highlight,. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (14:39) : Schweppes Plate 1200m
Back Me: 8 Nashville Cat (Bet Now: $11.00) debuted over 1000m here last Wednesday and though was back near last in the run she produced a brilliant finishing burst to get the job done. Plenty to like about the filly and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 1 Next Generation (Bet Now: $7.50) is on the back up after racing last Saturday where he split a couple of handy types in Sweet Ora and Dainty Tess. No horse of that quality here, and third, he should be ready fitness wise.
Roughie: 7 Tow Rope (Bet Now: $10.00) is the interesting runner engaged here. Debuts here off the back of three trials, all of which he has been successful. Meets a couple of handy types here, but you have to respect the trial form I think.
Race Two (15:18) : Hahn Superdry Maiden 1200m:
Back Me: 10 The Grand Elusion (Bet Now: $10.00) is a first starter for the Bazeley yard. Not easy debuting in Saturday maidens, but he did look sharp in a recent Pinjarra trial win and Pike jumps on, which is a really good lead.
Big Danger: 5 Pierian (Bet Now: $12.00) had his first run for two years at Pinjarra a tick over three weeks back and was very good in defeat when third to Foundry Court. The worry is that he’ll race flat second up off a long layoff, but the resumption was too good to dismiss.
Roughie: 1 Foxinator (Bet Now: $17.00) ran at Northam ran last Thursday and took an absolute eternity to wind up but closed off okay for a close up fourth. I think he will remain forever a maiden, but he draws well and if he can sit closer…maybe he can threaten?
Race Three (15:58) : Budget Car & Truck Rental Handicap (1MW) 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Travellin’ (Bet Now: $3.50) ran over this track/distance last Wednesday and was ridden a treat by Jake Casey to get the job done impressively. Depth here doesn’t appear strong and he should be ready to show his best now third up from a break.
Big Danger: 3 Pretentious Chant (Bet Now: $2.80) is a quality four year old that resumes. He ran some really good races during the Autumn before finding the class a bit much in the Belmont Guineas. Resumes here with no trials, but has a touch of quality.
Roughie: 8 Crown Choice (Bet Now: $19.00) is the knockout runner. He ran here last Saturday and was completely luckless behind Chocolate Holic, getting badly held up in the straight. Not sure he would have won, but given how unlucky he was, has to be respected here.
Race Four (16:38) : Belmotn Bonanza $20 Offer Handicap (1MW) 1650m:
Back Me: 2 Baraki Beats (Bet Now: $3.60) gets one more chance here. He attempted to lead all the way here last Saturday and gave a really good kick throughout but just couldn’t quite finish it off and had to settle for second. If he gets a cheap sectional on speed here, he will take care of them.
Big Danger: 9 Proxy (Bet Now: $10.00) resumed behind Falcon Crest and he was a real eye catcher, getting a long way back before finishing off with real purpose to run a close up fifth. He comes here with the most upside and will take a stack of beating.
Roughie: 10 Stormy Grace (Bet Now: $21.00) could be an improver here. She ran over the mile here a couple of Wednesdays back and made up eye catching ground late behind Discoville. Not known to perform either first or second up, but third up now from a good draw, she is a knockout hope.
Race Five (17:14) : The Tabtouch Masters Handicap (72+) 2100m:
Back Me: 1 Material Man (Bet Now: $2.20) for me here in what looks a two horse race. He ran over 2200m here four weeks ago and was very impressive in getting the job done, overcoming difficulty in the run. Little break between runs is no issue for me, Lucy rides, draws well…ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: 5 Falcon Crest (Bet Now: $3.50) ran over the mile here last Saturday and really savaged the line with purpose under hard riding from Pike to lunge and get the nod of Baraki Beats. He’ll love the step up in trip and Pike remains on.
Roughie: 3 Fulgur (Bet Now: $41.00) is a real one batter for the Parnham stable who ran here three weeks back and didn’t have a great deal of luck in the straight behind I’m Feeling Lucky. I think Jesus was turning water into win when this horse last won, but that last start effort wants him as a place/exotic chance.
Race Six (17:50) : Member Get Member Offer Handicap (72+) 1300m:
Back Me: 9 Royal Supreme (Bet Now: $3.80) is a talented galloper for Team Williams who looks the way to go here. He ran here last time out and chase hard but had to settle for a close second to Uptown Funk, who has run well since. Pike on, good gate, good enough for me.
Big Danger: 6 Spin Da Wheels (Bet Now: $6.00) is racing so well at the moment but just can’t quite crack it for a win. He ran over 1200m here last Saturday and stuck to the task quite gamely when third to It’s It. He draws to get a cheap run from the gate, he’s hard fit and in ripping form.
Roughie: 3 Cougar Nights (Bet Now: $17.00) resumed in the Belmont Newmarket a fortnight back and despite starting long odds I thought he wasn’t too bad behind First Amongst Equals. If this was a wet track he’d be right in the mix, but nonetheless, he is a leading chance.
Race Seven (18:30) : Farnley Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Socially Unique (Bet Now: $3.10) for me in a really tricky race. He raced three times during the Winter, all of which resulted in fabulous wins. Trials have been pretty good and the big lead is that Pike rides this bloke instead of his regular ride Red Ora.
Big Danger: 9 Stocks (Bet Now: $10.00) ran over 1200m here last Saturday and I think just forget he went around behind It’s It given he got badly held up in the straight, and with the weight, he couldn’t build up momentum quickly enough. Gets down to the minimum now, he’s hard fit and draws a soft gate.
Roughie: 4 Bass Strait (Bet Now: $71.00) could improve here with the lack of depth. He has contested the Belmont Newmarket and Idyllic Prince in both runs this time, both of which had really strong fields engaged. He is third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise, and if he brings his best, he is right in this.
Race Eight (19:05) : Amelia Park Beef Handicap (66+) 1000m:
Back Me: 6 Brackets (Bet Now: $4.20) ran over this track/distance last Saturday and Pike was at his brilliant best on this galloper, retaining the inside and then pushing the button at the right time to dash clear and won convincingly. He will get every chance from gate one, Pike remains on…looks the winner.
Big Danger: 12 American Star (Bet Now: $6.00) rises in grade but shouldn’t be underestimated after closing off hard here last Wednesday to run a close up second to a potentially really good one in Amelia’s Love. Tumbles down in weight now and I think last start showed that the best way to ride her is sit and ambush.
Roughie: 11 Recoiled (Bet Now: $8.50) ran over this track/distance five weeks ago and tried very hard when running third to Three Votes. Doesn’t appear to be as strong as what he faced last start, and draws well, so he ticks a few boxes.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Material Man
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 6 Brackets
VALUE: Race Two Number 10 The Grand Elusion
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 5
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 8, 9
Leg Four: 6, 7, 8, 11, 12
$50 Investment= 16.66% of the dividend if successful
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