Brisbane racing remains at Doomben this Saturday for a strong program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out 4.5 metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (14:02) : Angove Family Winemakers Handicap 1050m:
Back Me: This is a race I don’t want to get involved in. Not enough trial form to get a true guide on this race. So I will sit this one out and just watch rather than back an unknown. If there was one, perhaps Itz Alrite (Best Odds: $16.00), but the winner of that trial didn’t do a great deal last weekend.
Big Danger: Not enough form to tip.
Roughie: Not enough form to tip.
Race Two (14:37) : John Carroll Electrical Handicap (0MW) 1200m:
Back Me: Star Drop (Best Odds: $9.00) continued on her excellent return to racing with a determined last time out at the Gold Coast where she had to work hard for the win, but she found plenty when challenged. Harder here, but draws well and is in nicely at the weights after the claim for Jimmy Orman.
Big Danger: Pandora Charm (Best Odds: $8.00) is on the quick back up after racing here last Saturday where she ran sixth to Frilly Curtain, beaten 1.6L in a solid effort given she worked hard on speed throughout. Back to the mares now, and provided she doesn’t do too much work here, she can be a serious winning threat.
Roughie: Pantalettes (Best Odds: $17.00) is the knockout runner at odds here. She was completely luckless behind Beatniks over 1350m last start, getting badly held up behind tired runners and not being allowed any momentum. Should get the run of the race from gate one and is a definite winning chance for mine.
Race Three (15:12) : EDB Training Services Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: Riva De Lago (Best Odds: $2.25) does look the main threat. He was supported at odds last time out and thanks to a gun ride from McGillvray, the Stakes winner proved far too good for his rivals, including Architect, who toyed with them last weekend to frank the form. Only rises 1.5kg, and he is a proven weight carrier.
Big Danger: Aimee (Best Odds: $3.30) is another talented mare that resumes from the Winter Carnival. She didn’t really fire a shot last prep, but her recent Gold Coast trial behind Hi Son was excellent and she is a previous first up winner, so watch market moves with her.
Roughie: Rosenet (Best Odds: $7.50) was specked at odds when racing over this track/distance a couple of weeks back and she proved far too good for her rivals, winning comfortably, aided by a lovely steer from Ryan Wiggins, who remains on. That was against the mares and now she takes on open company, so slight query there, but draws well and is on the minimum.
Race Four (15:47) : Harcourts Green Living Handicap 2030m:
Back Me: Going with Mr Scary (Best Odds: $17.00). He ran over the mile here a couple of weeks back and tried hard but was simply no match for Grappa Brandy. Fourth up now and is getting out to his ideal distance, and is now on the minimum, so he really should take some beating here.
Big Danger: Lock’s Legend (Best Odds: $2.70) is absolutely low flying for trainer Brian Smith, winning his last four. He ticked a decent box last time out when he outstayed his rivals over 2200m. Back to 2000m here is perfect and while he is winning form, it’s hard to leave him out.
Roughie: I am going to continue to follow Amexed (Best Odds: $11.00). He was just outsprinted last week over the mile when finishing down the track behind Double Impact. He is starting to get out to an ideal distance now and could be an improver at odds.
Race Five (16:22) : Bartons Plate (Class 6) 1630m:
Back Me: Back to the mile should suit Punta Norte (Best Odds: $4.40), who didn’t run the 2000m out last start and faded out of the race late when running seventh to Lock’s Legend. He should lead these and should take some beating here.
Roughie: Best Of The Rest (Best Odds: $4.40) was very good when resuming, finishing second to Didntcostalot before being ridden upside down when fifth to Gid Up Strop. I think with a more cold ride, he can certainly threaten and third up now, he should be ready to show his best.
Roughie: Highly Gentle wasn’t too bad when resuming over 1350m, finishing his race off alright late behind the greybeard Steel Zip. Up to the mile suits, he is fitter, gate one and he is a second up winner previously, plus he has more upside than most here.
Race Six (16:58) : Tacomba Plumbing Handicap (0MW) 1200m:
Back Me: Bearskin (Best Odds: $6.00) was excellent when resuming over 1050m here a couple of weeks back, storming home from near last to run fourth to the above average galloper Hardline, beaten 2.3L. He will love the rise to 1200m, fitter and has a touch of class and quality, so he looks well weighted on 54.5kg.
Big Danger: Crooked Blaze (Best Odds: $4.60) is a Stakes performer trained at Tamworth by Leon Davies who resumes here. He ran well during the Autumn/Winter, highlighted by a win during the Grafton Cup Carnival. No trials, but he is the clear class runner, and he looks beautifully suited at the weights after the claim.
Roughie: Sony Legend (Best Odds: $6.00) is on the quick back up after racing last Saturday over this track/distance where he was given every chance in front from Brad Pengelly, but he couldn’t quite hold out the brilliant finishing burst of Frilly Curtain. Not sure how he will handle the seven day turnaround, but obviously he must have pleased the stable shortly after the run.
Race Seven (17:35) : Nairn Constructions Plate (Class 6) 1350m:
Back Me: Casual Choice (Best Odds: $2.90) does appear to be the good thing on the program. He had his first run for Tony Gollan here a couple of weeks back and though he took a little time to wind up, he was excellent over the final furlong and was strong through the line. Blinkers come off now, which isn’t a worry, and he just looks the winner.
Big Danger: Desert General (Best Odds: $21.00) has promised a fair bit in his career, but hasn’t quite reached those expectations. Still, he scored a strong win first up at the Sunny Coast, aided by a peach from D Browne. Draws well again, fitter, down in the weights and strikes a very winnable race IMO.
Roughie: Cracco (Best Odds: $12.00) hasn’t raced in a month since finishing sixth to Beckham, where he wasn’t suited by the slow tempo and couldn’t sprint when the leader pressed the button. Fitter now, gate one and is very well treated at the weights after the claim for Brooke Stower.
Race Eight (18:10) : Iona Old Boys Handicap 1050m:
Back Me: This could easily be mistaken for a Group race. But given he has the fitness edge and weight pull after the claim, I’ll clearly put Blue Desert Moon (Best Odds: $3.00) on top, who proved far too good for Wicket Intent last time out when racing over this track/distance. He has tremendous early toe, so the wide gate won’t be an issue, and he should take some beating.
Big Danger: Big Tree resumed over 1200m here and was excellent in defeat when a close up second to Secret Saga. Back to 1050m and drawn out are the concerns, but he is a Stakes winner should take good improvement from the first up run and is a definite winning chance.
Roughie: Very interested to see how Madotti goes here. Resumes for Matty Dunn after a frustrating Winter prep, but she looked awfully sharp in leading all the way in a Gold Coast trial. Beat home Chillin’ With Dylan, and though that horse got beat first up, there were excuses, so don’t be turned off by that.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 Blue Desert Moon
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 10 Casual Choice
VALUE: Race Seven Number 5 Cracco
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10
Leg Two: 1, 6, 10, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 10, 12
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10
$50 Investment= 4.96% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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