10/2/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, JRA Plate day

Nine races will be run and won at Morphettville this Saturday for JRA Plate Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.

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8 Duchess Of Sussex (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Phillip Stokes trained filly on debut. She had a recent jumpout win when pushed out to win but ran decent enough time and seemingly did it with something left in the tank. Not sure she beats Ad Astra but she likely lands on speed and if the track is playing up/in, she’s dangerous.

4 Uki Rain (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Rothesay for Stuart Gower that is on debut. This guy jumped out here a couple of weeks back and didn’t move too bad I thought when placing in his respective heat. The depth of this race has fallen right away so he doesn’t need to be anything special to measure up.

5 Darlinc (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one for exotics. She is one that is hard fit and has solid race experience with three runs under the belt, the latest being three weeks back at Gawler when near the speed and had every chance when third to Kuroyanagi. I highly doubt she wins but she can pinch a place spot.

2 Irish Butterfly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver for Henry Dwyer. He ran in the One Last Kiss race from three weeks back at Flemington where he did too much work to land on speed and just felt the pinch late in the piece to finish down the track. Prior form was sound and good enough to be more than competitive here.

6 Piercing Sky (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a lightly raced stayer for Matt Cumani that is heading in the right direction. He has won two on the bounce, winning the maiden two back at Seymour before leading throughout and spanking his rivals at Mornington over 2400m. Off that display, 2500m should be fine and he finds a winnable metro race.

3 Canford (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hit and miss at times but he showed that when he is on, last start, he is a capable stayer. He bolted up at this track/distance two weeks ago, giving them a start and a beating in a sharp display. The problem is that he can run so good one start and then flop the next, so that is the query, but if reproduces last start, he’ll be around the mark.

6 Another Ponzi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat for Team Jolly. Market took a set against him when resuming a few weeks ago at Gawler but he defied that drift and ran really well in defeat when fifth to San Lucido, beaten just over two lengths in a very encouraging return. He has a great second up record and with a more positive ride, with the run under the belt, he appeals.

8 Midnight Rush (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should prove hard to beat for Team Jolly. This gelding resumed two weeks ago at this track/distance where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never really a winning threat, he did work home with purpose and the run was full of merit in defeat behind Costless. Fitter, can settle closer, hard to beat.

5 Seven Secrets (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver at odds. Andrew Gluyas trained gelding that resumed two weeks back over 1050m here when back, wide with cover, and just couldn’t get involved when down the track behind Ballon D’Or. Fitter and up in trip, his best is good enough to be dangerous at a likely decent price.

3 Marimenko (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to win for Team Jolly. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he was held up at times but eventually found clear air and charged late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to I’m A Dexter. He was 1200m to 1500m second up so with the run under the belt, he appeals.

10 Tres Belle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door. Ryan Balfour trained mare that ran third to I’m A Dexter a fortnight back here. She just got a bit too far back in the run but I didn’t mind the way she finished her race off in defeat, running a narrow third. She was 1100m to 1500m and was a few weeks between runs so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

7 Myrtle Creek (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing really well at the moment for Bain/Taylor and commands respect. This girl ran over the mile here two weeks back when back off the speed and kept chasing in a solid effort behind Just Like Lisa. Maps ideally, in form, strong late, leading contender.

4 Aitch D’Amico (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look. He was luckless two back at Murray Bridge before racing here two weeks ago where on face value, he was plain, but given the race shape and the big weight, forgive and forget the run behind Magnetic Edge. Much better set up here IMO and of he runs up to his effort at Murray Bridge, he likely wins this race.

7 Cullen Skink (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suited back in trip for Clarken/O’Shea. He ran over 2100m at Geelong a few weeks ago and tried hard, but after being keen in the run early, he didn’t quite have the finale to finish the race off behind Test The Law. Like him back in trip and prior efforts were strong.

5 Pool Pony (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Francis/Kent and commands respect. This gelding has won his past three, the latest being three weeks back at Gawler where he sat on speed and he was there to be run down but he found under pressure to fend them off and win. Good test here but he’s flying and has to be respected.

14 Desert Dancing (Bet Now:  $SP.00) to produce sustained speed from the front. She resumed in a 900m maiden at Murray Bridge on Australia Day where she looked a moral on paper and duly saluted, bolting up by a space and running time. Clearly a harder assignment this time around but with her racing style, she’ll give herself every chance and be hard to get past.

11 Misludi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look. I thought she would be hard to beat when she ran here two weeks ago and while on the line she was safely held, she didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight and should have finished much closer. The win prior was sharp and off that, she will be more than competitive here.

8 Willatson (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hit and miss but is capable at this level. He was back and wide when racing here a fortnight back but got clear air and worked home with real purpose, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Storm Voyager. He has a couple of versions of himself but his best is good enough to be around the mark.

7 Arugamama (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripping mare for Andrew Gluyas that can put her hands up for the Adelaide Cup if she runs well here. She ran over 2000m a few weeks ago at Flemington where she was chasing from a fair way out when the sprint went on but she ran through the pain barrier and kept finding the line in a good effort when a narrow third to Aurora’s Symphony. Fresh legs should be okay and it’s hard to knock the way she’s racing.

5 Second To Nun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is absolutely flying for Clarken/O’Shea and she has to be respected. She was an outstanding winner of the Strathalbyn Cup last Friday, leading throughout and gee she was strong to the line in winning. Rochelle Milnes has been a big key to the form reversal and this mare becoming a winning machine. Leading chance.

10 Bonnie Gangster (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider exotics. I thought she would run well in the Strathalbyn Cup but she didn’t quite finish her race off well enough after getting a suck run in transit. She does have a good record at Morphettville and maps to do no work in the run. First four threat.

7 Pegasi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. He was outclassed on paper in the Durbridge and while that ended up being the case, I thought he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Aitch Two Oh, beaten two lengths in a really good effort. Goes well second up and is much better suited at this level.

3 Manhattan Times (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a great second up record and with that, he’s in here as a leading contender. He resumed in the Durbridge where he seemingly had every chance in behind them and was solid to the line but had his chance behind Aitch Two Oh. Better for the run under the belt and with a great second up record, he’ll take beating.

1 Larimer Street (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver back to this level. I thought he’d run really well fresh in the Durbridge but he was just fair I thought after seemingly getting every chance. Had trialled uo super leading in so I am not dismissing him.

3 Confrontational (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing well for Jason Warren and looks really well placed here. He ran a fortnight back over the mile at The Valley when ridden cold and it worked, finishing off his race well in defeat when third to a nice horse, Ceerseven. He is not a horse you can put a whole lot of confidence in but that can be said about most of these so with that and the Victorian form lines, happy to be in his corner.

2 Wild Willy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing well for Jamie Opperman and commands respect. Far from disgraced two back behind Thrill Kill before going to Gawler where he got back off the speed and was trucking but just didn’t have the finale of Second To Nun, running second to that in form mare. Genuine, racing well…definite winning chance.

8 Punchin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will land on speed and give a sight. That is what he did two weeks back here over 1500m and he did give a solid kick but just couldn’t quite see it through when fourth to I’m A Dexter. He has won at 1800m and 2000m so the rise to 1800m is ideal, good racing style and will give plenty of cheek.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 7 Arugamama

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Marimenko

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 4 Aitch D’Amico

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5, 8, 11, 14

Leg Two: 5, 7

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 7

Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 8, 10

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful.

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