Nine races will be run and won at Moonee Valley on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:35) Support Legend Horses' B'day 1600m
2 Al Galayel (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) looks ready to win. Was a bit unsure as to how well he was going after a couple of plain runs to start the prep, but he looks back on track after his effort at Flemington two weeks ago, closing off nicely late behind Romancer. Failed over 2040m here last year at this corresponding meeting, but the pattern that day was suiting those on speed so provided we don’t get that here, he’s one of the hardest to beat.
6 Victoria Star (Bet Now: $1.80 TOP ODDS) is a Greg Eurell trained gelding who was poorly weighted in the Winter Championship Final but despite that, he ran an absolute belter in defeat behind impressive winner Sircconi. He ran the mile out quite well there despite being beaten four lengths. With that run under the belt, he’ll take some beating.
1 Vassilator (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is going well for Colin Little and I think is hard to beat. Ran over 2000m at Flemington two weeks ago where he was wide with cover off a slow speed and was there to win but found one too good in Creedence. He’s been in work a fair while but is holding his form and should be around the mark against these types.
Race 2. (13:10) Jockey Celebration Day Hcp 1000m
Going with the SA speedster 4 Theresabearinthere (Bet Now: $2.25 TOP ODDS), a Team Jolly trained three year old that hasn’t raced since June 27 when leading throughout and bolting up on the Parks track over 1000m. Tick over trial was good and with the claim for Neindorf, who has won on him, should find the front and hopefully sustained speed gets him home.
Think class will carry 1 Hard Landing (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) a long way towards victory. Resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig team after just the one run in the Autumn, which saw him finish down the track in the Blue Diamond Prelude behind Hanseatic. Won a Flemington jumpout last Friday in fast time and does have the A1 form next to his name.
3 Jabali Ridge (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) interests me back to 1000m. Price/Kent trained son of Jabali that hasn’t raced since July 4 down the straight at Flemington when on speed and tiring late when fourth to stablemate Sense Of Honour. Been given a freshen up and liked the way he went in a tick over Caulfield jumpout. Hard to beat at his best.
Race 3. (13:50) Andrew Gilbert/ Gavin Lisk Hcp 1000m
8 Peggy Selene (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) looks the one to beat. Maher/Eustace trained filly that spanked them to break the maiden two back at Ballarat before going to Sandown where she chased strongly and looked the winner but was nabbed near the peg by a promising filly in Parlophone, and we saw what she did last Saturday. Hard to beat.
1 A Beautiful Night (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a key threat. Resumes for the Maher/Eustace camp, having not raced since the Blue Diamond when punching through to lead and tired late behind Tagaloa, but in reality, she was outclassed. Given a good break and her two jumpouts to get ready have been pretty good, so keen to see how she goes.
4 Miss Bosetti (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) hasn’t done much in recent runs for Team Snowden and I think can run well here. Comes through the Hydro Star race from last Wednesday at Sandown where she worked home okay from off the pace to run third to the impressive debut winner. Stable is going well with their youngsters in Melbourne and is a definite chance.
Race 4. (14:30) Mark Goring/adrian Ledger-bm78 1000m
Does the class/quality of 4 Brooklyn Hustle (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) get her home? I think with luck in running, yes. Talented mare for Jason Warren that resumes, having not raced since the Coolmore Stud when far from disgraced in defeat at Group l level behind Exceedance. Just one quiet jumpout leading in, so fitness levels are unknown, but she has class/quality.
Nikki Burke has 2 Fight (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) going really well this time in. Looked outclassed on paper two weeks ago at Flemington but gee he ran well in defeat, finishing a close up third to the Stakes class horse, Bumper Blast. Seems to be really enjoying racing at 1000m and back to 78 grade from 90, he’s really hard to beat.
5 Lucifer’s Reward (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is purely a 1000m horse. He got conditions to suit two back when winning at Caulfield. Then stepped up to 1200m down the straight at Flemington and was one of several not helped by the slow tempo. Like him back to 1000m and does have a liking for the Valley. Can improve out of sight against these
Race 5. (15:10) Roger Booth/donna Philpot-bm78 1600m
2 Arctic Shock (Bet Now: $7.50) for me. The Meagher stable trains this mare, who ran at Sandown last Wednesday when wide throughout in the run and was entitled to drop away, but kept finding and was outstanding in defeat when a narrow second to Moscow Red. Has a liking for the Valley and was a few weeks between runs that day, so she’s got room for improvement.
11 Soaring Eagle (Bet Now: $8.50) is a mare that is racing really honestly this prep but can’t quite crack it for a win. Has placed in two of three runs at the track though which helps her cause. Comes through the Rising Stars Final at Flemington when outsprinted by El Questro and was far from disgraced in defeat. Honest and should be around the mark again. Just needs to improve that little bit to win.
8 Brimm (Bet Now: $13.00) is a daughter of Darci Brahma for Richard Cully that’s racing in solid enough form this time in but is struggling to greet the judge first. Ran over the mile at Cranbourne last time out when leading and just felt the pinch late when fourth to Fudged. Should find the front here and did place in her lone run at the track.
Race 6. (15:50) M Claridge & M Tyndall (bm84) 1200m
Will need luck in running but 10 Wilmot Pass (Bet Now: $2.15) is the best horse in the race. The Freedman camp trains this four year old, who ran down the Flemington straight two weeks ago in what was pretty much a barrier trial, but he was able to produce a good turn of foot to win. Sits off a genuine speed here, needs luck but if he gets it, the one to beat.
Big query here is 5 Condo’s Express (Bet Now: $5.00), a talented animal for Richard Laming that resumes. He hasn’t raced since contesting the Bendigo Guineas when attempting to lead throughout and battled away okay behind Riddle Me That. Recent Cranbourne jumpout was solid without jumping up and down, but he loves the Valley.
11 Scottish Rogue (Bet Now: $17.00) can be an improver here at odds for the Busuttin/Young camp. Ran down the straight at Flemington last time out and worked home okay without really threatening behind impressive winner Sakura. Been a little while since he has greeted the judge first but his best is clearly good enough to be around the mark here.
Race 7. (16:25) Vale Rob Gaylard Hcp 2040m
I think there’s more to come with 7 Polly Grey (Bet Now: $4.20). Surprised many with a strong effort when second in the Winter Championship Final. Stepped up to 2000m two weeks ago in a very slowly run race. Got back and was never a winning hope given the tempo but loved the way she found the line. Jockey upgrade is significant and she should be hard fit.
A win isn’t far away for 10 Sir Pippin (Bet Now: $13.00), who comes through the race mentioned above at Flemington over 2000m, which was won by the heavily backed Creedence. He got an inside split and around 200m to go was there to win, but couldn’t sustain it in the run to the line. Tempo should be more genuine this time around and Allen sticks.
6 Danon Roman (Bet Now: $7.50) is a son of Deep Impact for Anthony Freedman that comes through the Romancer race from a fortnight back at Flemington. On face value, he was outclassed, but was only beaten three lengths and was far from disgraced in defeat. Not sure this sort of grade is a level he can reach, but including in multiples.
Race 8. (17:00) Ladbrokes Switch (bm78) 1500m
Better suited over further, but 1 Skelm (Bet Now: $13.00) looks the best gamble on the program. I dare say he has an eye towards a race like the Bart Cummings to qualify for the Cup, which is what he tried to do last time out in the Andrew Ramsden and was outstanding in defeat when fourth to Oceanex. Jumped out on Tuesday at Burrumbeet and went like a jet, notably with the Blinkers on as well. He’s better than these.
2 Winning Partner (Bet Now: $3.60) has returned in good order for the McEvoy camp. Impressive win from off the pace two back at Murray Bridge before going to the Parks track a fortnight ago where the tempo was clearly against him but worked home strongly when second to Defiant Dancer. The claim certainly helps and extra 100m is a big tick.
5 Tatunka (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Bob Danat trained gelding that’s in career best form. Put together three on the bounce before earning a crack in town three weeks ago at Caulfield and liked the way he found the line in defeat when second to Tavidance. Little query at 1500m, but hard to knock the way he’s going and commands respect.
Race 9. (17:35) Chandler Macleod (bm70) 1200m
19 Hypersonic (Bet Now: $2.10) is looking very much above average but this is another test to see just how good he is. Has won 2/2 to start his career. Impressive debut winner at Murray Bridge before leading and bolting up at this track/distance two weeks ago, albeit in a much easier race than this. Keen to see how he performs.
9 Proper Rogue (Bet Now: $4.80) gets another chance. Was really keen on him at Flemington two weeks ago and on face value, thought he was very plain behind Wilmot Pass, but the tempo was farcical and not sure that was to his liking. Third up now, hard fit and should appreciate a more genuine tempo. Little query is that Olly jumps off to ride Hypersonic.
16 Reard (Bet Now: $31.00) is suited here I feel for Jarrod Robinson. Really sharp winner at the trip two back at Warracknabeal before stepping up to 1200m at Flemington where it was a real sit/sprint affair and given he was back, he had no chance behind Wilmot Pass. Much better suited in a more genuinely run race and off the win two back, he’s in this.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Skelm
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Al Galayel
LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 2 Arctic Shock
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 10, 11
Leg Two: 1, 6, 7, 10
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 9, 13, 16, 19
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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