1/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, The Big Dance day

A massive ten race card has been set down for Randwick this Saturday, headlined by the inaugural edition of the $2 Million Big Dance (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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5 Accebar (Bet Now: $4.60) is racing like he will eat up 1800m. Last couple of runs have come at 1400m, the latest being a fortnight back at Eagle Farm where he wasn’t suited at all by the race shape but I thought he kept on in finding the line behind Yellow Brick. Extra 400m suits and should be strong late.

1 Karmazone (Bet Now: $3.80) is flying for Daniel Robinson. Loved the way he attacked the line to win over the mile at Kembla two back before going to Warwick Farm where Zac Lloyd saved ground nearer the inside, stayed out of trouble and was too good. Good test here, but hard to knock the way he’s going.

4 Loving Cilla (Bet Now: $7.00) is sneaky flying for Joseph Ible. Month between runs since racing over 1900m at Canterbury where she was well specked at a price and ran up to that, closing off nicely when third to Ting Tong. Won’t mind some give in the track and down in the weights, she appeals.

1000m horse in a 1000m race. I’m with 9 Miss Kirribilli (Bet Now: $6.00), a handy mare for Tim Donnelly that resumes. She had a four run prep in the later part of the Autumn to start her career, winning two of four, and last run saw her run second in a 1200m Highway. I think she’s a short course type, her trial was sharp, gate one, down in the weights…happy to be in her corner.

11 Oakeys Choice (Bet Now: $11.00) has done little wrong in a three start career for Michelle Ritchie. Both runs this prep have come over 1000m at Goulburn, running a narrow second fresh before producing sustained speed to win last start in good style and good time. Confident he can measure up.

19 Pretty Woman (Bet Now: $9.50) is an interesting runner. Matty Dale trained mare that resumes, having not raced since April 8 on the home deck at Canberra when leading and tiring late. That was at 1200m though and perhaps an end of prep run. Fresh legs and 1000m, she appeals.

To me, this race is all about 7 Quick Tempo (Bet Now: $5.00). If he’s ready to go, he wins. But, the query I have is that he resumes without a trial, is this a prep run to get ready for Hunter Day on the home deck at Newcastle. But, on form, he has panels on these. Last prep he was very good against the pattern on a number of occasions, notably at Rosehill behind a Stakes winner, Shades Of Rose. I’ll take the gamble he’s better than these.

4 Queen Bellissimo (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Brad Widdup trained mare that resumes. She hasn’t raced since June 11 over 1200m here when not pulling up 100% behind a handy one, Waihaha Falls. May need the run given she’s better suited at 1200m and just one soft trial under the belt, but she does have quality.

10 Mouse Almighty (Bet Now: $26.00) deserves a crack in town. She is flying at the moment, looking to make it three races on the bounce, winning at Wagga two back before proving that was no fluke with a dominant win at The Valley. She’s the one that is hard fit, in career best form, she’ll give a sight at a price.

8 Saturn Star (Bet Now: $2.00) is short enough but I think he is the one they have to beat. Dominant debut win over 1200m at the Rosehilll midweeks in a race wher ehte form out of it has been red hot. A horse that could have measured up during Cup Week, but comes here, tick over trial was good…he’s the one they clearly have to beat.

16 This’llbetheone (Bet Now: $21.00) is a John O’Shea trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since June 13 when at the end of a decent prep and just looked a tired horse when down the track behind Rondino. He’s a good fresh horse and his two trials have been quite encouraging.

1 Robusto (Bet Now: $15.00) is an improver up in trip. He ran over 1400m last time out at Warwick Farm where he wasn’t entirely suited by the race shape but I didn’t mind the way he found the line behind all the way winner Daytona. He has teased to be a good horse, but he doesn’t need to be anything special to measure up.

14 Casino Kid (Bet Now: $11.00) just seems the wrong price to my eye at double figures. Jan Bowen trained gelding that is just such a genuine animal. He was one of the runs of the race here last time in a slowly run event, working home well late behind Hosier, who got it cheap in front and was too good. Right down in the weights, handles the ground, strong late, maps well…he’s a great each way bet.

If the wide gate is no issue for 5 Hosier (Bet Now: $4.80), he likely wins the race. Dylan Gibbons gave him a 12/10 steer to win at the track/distance last start, getting total control in front and giving them zero chance of getting past him. Frankie on, he’ll press forward and he is the one in the race with quality.

I’ve seen worse $81+ shots than 19 One Aye (Bet Now: $81.00). Joseph/Jones trained mare that I feel is sneaky flying. Ran a beauty two back in The Nivison before going to the mile and she battled on pretty well in defeat behind Mahagoni. Right down in the weights and does no work, she’s worth a speck at a big price and a must for multiples.

4 Solar Apex (Bet Now: $8.50) is absolutely flying for the Waller camp and if he gets a half decent steer, he’ll only run well. Luckless fresh at Rosehill before going to the Wildcard here where Jay Ford showed zero intent and clearly should have finished much closer. Hard fit, drawn out, if he gets a crack at them, he’ll launch.

1 Dr Drill (Bet Now: $9.50) has returned very well. Trialled up nicely prior to resuming in the Shannon and I thought he was very good late in the piece from the back behind Surf Dancer. He has been accepted/scratched a few times since, but now runs here in a big money race, so you’d think he’s ready to go.

12 Point Counterpoint (Bet Now: $17.00) is a progressive animal for Stirling Osland that deserves a crack. Class got him home fresh on testing ground at Tamworth before going to Canterbury where he knuckled down with real purpose late to win and win well. Harder here, but think he can measure up, especially down in the weights.

10 Clemenceau (Bet Now: $2.05) is short enough but I think he has the best set up. Team Hawkes trained gelding that has been kept on ice, having not raced since Moir Night at The Valley where he was on speed and gave a strong kick but had no answers for the finale produced by Zethus, who had the suck run in behind. Fresh legs, back to 1100m and with only 50kg on his back, he’s the one for me.

6 Dragonstone (Bet Now: $4.80) is an improver. Mark Newnham trained gelding that resumed at Caulfield where the race shape was against him, and he was nearer the inside, but didn’t mind the way he finished his race off. Fitter, back on a track he likes, he’s hard to beat.

4 Through The Cracks (Bet Now: $15.00) is a very interesting runner. He hasn’t raced since the Newcastle Newmarket back in March when back near last in the run and was very good late when third to Wandabaa. He’s a horse who can sprint well fresh and his trials have been strong. Watch the market.

Happy to speck 6 Another One (Bet Now: $11.00) each way. He resumed in The Kosciuszko where he was a tad keen in the run and couldn’t quite finish it off in an on pace domination won by Front Page. Good second up record and fitter, up to 1300m, I think he can be a big improver.

1 Far Too Easy (Bet Now: $2.70) has the runs on the board to give this a shake. He was well tried in The Kosciuszko and I thought was given a peach by Orman, looming to beat Front Page, but on the line, was safely held. I think 1300m at this level is a query, and with the wide gate…hard to beat, but short enough.

12 Bugalugs (Bet Now: $26.00) is right down in the weights and that is always a good recipe when racing on wet tracks. He ran over 1200m at Warwick Farm last time out when wide no cover on speed and just felt the pinch late behind a handy animal, The Poacher. I reckon with a positive steer, he’ll give a sight.

7 Wonderful Riri (Bet Now: $8.00) is sneaky flying for Joe Pride I think. Last couple of runs have come over the mile here and each time, she has been ridden quite negatively and has had little luck each time. Drops back to what I think is a moderate 88, and with a half decent steer, I think she’ll only run well.

5 Bullfinch (Bet Now: $8.50) deserves another look. On paper, it was just a run when resuming at Eagle Farm, but the tempo was an absolute crawl, and he just had no chance of picking them up behind Ef Troop. That form was franked on Saturday, and fitter, up to 1500m, he can bounce back.

Interesting placement by James Cummings with 12 Tamerlane (Bet Now: $5.00). He wasn’t suited at the mile on wet ground last time out at Randwick when down the track behind Hosier. Weather is key. I think he’s crying out for dry ground and if he gets firmer footing here, expecting improvement.

2 Norwegian Bliss (Bet Now: $2.05) will do me here in the get out. She’s short enough but I do think she has a bit on these. She resumes and is looking to remain unbeaten. 6/6 to date and with two trials under the belt, both strong, even though I think she’s being set for something on Hunter Day, I think she’ll be too good for these.

8 Grande Rumore (Bet Now: $6.50) is a quality mare for Kris Lees that resumes. She hasn’t raced since July 17 at Rosehill when producing an end of prep run behind Bold Mac, albeit wasn’t beaten far. She’s a mare who can sprint well fresh and with two trials, she’s ready to go I’d suggest.

3 Cristal Breeze (Bet Now: $26.00) is a stablemate of Grande Rumore that is also first up and I think is a sneaky chance. He can be hit and miss but his best is clearly good enough to give this a shake. Better suited at 1400m, and is another likely being set for Hunter Day, but two trial wins under the belt, he’s ready to go for a decent forward showing.

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 2 Norwegian Bliss

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 7 Quick Tempo

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 12 Casino Kid

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 6, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 12

Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 7, 12

Leg Four: 2

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