1/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville

Melbourne Cup Day racing in SA heads to Morphettville. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres from the 1200m-400m; Out two metres from the 400m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.

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Melbourne Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Melbourne Cup

Couple of really low maidens on this program, and this is one. No real depth but the lone one with decent upside is clearly 11 Vic Reel (Bet Now: $4.20). Daughter of Highland Reel that is having start three after a couple of encouraging runs to start her career, the latest over 1700m at Gawler when near the speed and battled on pretty well behind a handy one in Lake Titicaca. That looks a strong form reference and banking on it being the case here.

10 Golden Beauty (Bet Now: $7.00) has had 17 starts to try and break the maiden status but she isn’t lacking in fitness. She ran third in the Lake Titicaca race mentioned above and while she was well held, I didn’t mind the way she found the line from off the pace. 2000m looks ideal and should be around the mark.

If this becomes a slog then 7 Cheniah (Bet Now: $15.00) has the grounding to be one of the strongest late. She was good in defeat over 1800m at Murray Bridge last time before going to 2100m at Gawler and was okay without being great. This is a moderate maiden, as a whole, so at least she has the 2000m+ lead up under the belt.

It looks like it will be a first starter domination. The lean is towards 5 Umarell (Bet Now: $1.90), a Will Clarken trained first starter. He’s looked really sharp in a couple of trials to get ready for start one, seeing him lead throughout and he moved very well to my eye when leading throughout. Tricky draw, but has the early toe to take care of that, so he’ll do me.

2 Noble Magnate (Bet Now: $2.60) is the interesting one. Team Jolly trains this son of Magnus. He won a differnet trial on the same morning as Umarell. The overall time was several lengths slower but he was restrained and not asked to do a great deal. Stable should always be respected with the first starters, so watch the market.

7 Daunting Decision (Bet Now: $8.50) hasn’t been too bad in three career outings. Stablemate of Noble Magnate that ran on Balaklava Cup Day when near the speed and she tried hard, but was no match for Lucky Fortuna, who I am keen on later in the program, so I am respecting that form, and she’s right down in the weights after the claim.

This is the second of the pretty ordinary maidens on the card. Landed with 8 Vanity Star (Bet Now: $3.60) for Travis Doudle. He ran over 1700m at Gawler last time when back, wide with cover, and tried to make a run, but couldn’t quite finish it off and just whacked awayw late behind Lake Titicaca. Draws to get a much better run in transit and gee the depth is thin.

Fitter and up to the mile are two big ticks for 3 Flittell (Bet Now: $4.20). He resumed over 1400m at Murray Bridge where he was five wide for the trip, with cover, and worked home okay late without threatening behind Thrifty. The rise in trip should suit him and he’s a horse with upside.

Up in trip I find interesting with 11 Decibelles (Bet Now: $26.00). He ran over 1300m at Balaklava last time out and was solid late, a bit one paced but found the line okay behind Victory Time. The mile is the query with him, but overall, this is a thin race, so I can’t totally pen him.

6 Tan Tat Beau (Bet Now: $3.20) gets the nod. He’s had a couple of runs for Aaron Bain, both over 1100m at Gawler where each time he has loomed to win but hasn’t quite gone on with it, albeit both races have produced subsequent winners. Hard fit now with an ideal map, Vorster sticks, he’ll do me.

2 Fleurieu Flipper (Bet Now: $5.50) looks to have returned well. He resumed at this track/distance when near the speed throughout and though quickly headed, I liked the way he toughed it out when runner up to Second To Nun. Fitter with the Blinkers on, he appeals for sure.

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 1 Butts (Bet Now: $19.00). Trialled up really well prior to resuming at Murray Bridge over 1000m where the market said he’d be better for the run. He didn’t win, but was very good late when a close up fourth after getting back. If he’s within range, he can win.

Pretty keen here on 8 Lucky Fortuna (Bet Now: $4.20). He looks a big raw bugger but he’s got an engine under the hood. Market wanted him when debuting at Balaklava and despite doing plenty wrong, he had panels on them and was impressive in putting them away, running some of the better late splits of the meeting. He’s the one with the most upside IMO and will be strong late.

1 Justakidd (Bet Now: $6.00) has an awful racing pattern but clearly has a good engine. He was a real eye catcher two back at Gawler behind Chosen Blonde, an in form mare. He then went to Murray Bridge Cup Day and was good late without threatening second to Motell. If he can settle closer in the run, I think he’ll take beating.

All you can do is win and that is what 6 Tickety Boom (Bet Now: $16.00) has done, winning on debut at Murray Bridge when back, wide with cover, but came with a well timed run to finish best. Don’t think it was the strongest maiden but it was a debut win. One for multiples I’d suggest.

3 Victory Club (Bet Now: $4.60) is the each way bet for me. I think he’s sneaky flying this horse but his last couple of runs, he has just done that little bit too much extra work and has felt the pinch late. There was plenty of merit in the effort at Murray Bridge last time when four wide no cover for the trip, sticking on really well behind Motell. Hard to beat with a more economical run in transit.

Market will be fascinating with 2 Mr Metrics (Bet Now: $3.30). He was favourite when resuming in that Motell race mentioned above. He attempted to lead throughout and got a soft lead it seemed, but he was one of the first beat and was terrible. 3kg claiming apprentice, it could be a case of jump/run, which was ideal for this track on Saturday, but after a plain return, watch the market.

8 Dingabledinga (Bet Now: $31.00) is a son of Clangalang that resumes. He hasn’t raced since July 20 at Gawler when failing to fire in a plain effort behind Lomax. Thought his trial behind Munster was a good piece of work and albeit better suited over further, he does have enough talent to be quite competitive here.

7 Comfort Girl (Bet Now: $9.00) looks ready to rock and roll. Third up is when she fires and that is the set up she gets here off two prep runs, the latest behind Montepulciano over the mile here when back and making up minor headway. Like her up to 2000m and the depth, as a whole, is on the thin side.

5 African Awesome (Bet Now: $7.00) is struggling to put a win on the board for this prep, but he’s not far off. His run had merit to it last week on Gawler Cup Day when near a good speed and fought on really well when second to Enlist, who had the suck run out the back and finished best. Gets a good run from the gate and 2000m is fine.

10 American Trouble (Bet Now: $8.50) is a definite winning threat. She was several weeks between runs when racing over 1800m at Murray Bridge and she was very good late when second to Pitrain. Did run at 2500m the start prior so fitter and up to 2000m are two big ticks for her.

If 3 Sacred Armour (Bet Now: $2.45) is ready to go, he wins. He’s a sharp sprinter for Travis Doudle that resumes, having not raced since July 9 at Gawler when contesting an 84. He was wide no cover for the trip and tired late behind Extreme Thrill. Jumpout was impressive, he’ll jump/run and I think prove too classy for these. Keen.

4 Old Time Rock (Bet Now: $7.50) is a slight query at 1100m but I think he’s going really well. He resumed in the Rich Gina race from a few weeks back here. He was back in the field and came with a well timed run to finish the race off nicely when third to Rich Gina. If 1100m is okay, he’ll be hard to beat.

2 Viduka (Bet Now: $7.00) is a knockout chance. He ran in the Rich Gina race from just over a week ago where he was near the speed throughout and battled on pretty well in defeat in a race which had far more depth than this. Gets in well after the claim and his best is good enough.

18 Rebel Lee (Bet Now: $12.00) is the each way bet in the get out. This mare has had two runs back from a spell, resuming with a third on the Parks track behind a good mare, Scenic Host. She then went to Murray Bridge and was good late without threatening behind Mug’s Game. Crying out for the mile, she gets it here, and if she’s within range on the turn, she’s certainly going well enough to run them down.

8 Lord Luker (Bet Now: $6.50) is a market watch. He was a notable drifter in betting when resuming on Murray Bridge Cup Day and ran accordingly behind Motell after getting every chance in the run. Blinkers on first time and a tick over trial, he can be a big improver off previous form.

13 Charm Slinga (Bet Now: $11.00) can take this out. His racing pattern is pretty poor but he can unleash a strong finale. Ran over this track/distance last time out where he got back to near last in the run and was good late when a close up fifth to Boolcunda King. Similar to Rebel Lee, needs things to fall into place, but can win if that eventuates.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 Sacred Armour

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 8 Lucky Fortuna

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 18 Rebel Lee

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 7, 8

Leg Two: 5, 7, 8, 10

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 1, 7, 8, 13, 18

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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