1/1/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, New Year’s Day races

Flemington will host their traditional New Years Day program on Tuesday with a couple of time honoured features the drawcards, the Bagot Handicap (2800m) and Standish Handicap (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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2 Lady Naturaliste (Bet Now: $4.20) will do me in the opener. Matt Cumani trains this filly, who debuted over 1000m at the Valley where she sat on speed and was under pressure before the turn but kept finding and ran a game second to Lady Lupino in really fast time. Draws to get clear air, has the race experience under the belt so I’m happy to be with her against these.

For exotics I’d be including 4 For Love (Bet Now: $17.00), a Matty Smith trained daughter of Unencumbered, and the stock of the ill fated sire is absolutely flying at the moment. This girl has had two trials, the latest over 900m at Canterbury when a narrow second and although pushed out, did respond well and was only beaten in the last stride. Interesting to see how she goes.

9 Reward (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Reward For Effort filly on debut for Mick Kent. She had a December 17 jumpout at Cranbourne where I thought she was pretty good. Sat on speed throughout and when asked for more of an effort, she responded and showed a decent turn of foot to win the jumpout. Always on guard with these Mick Kent juveniles because more often than not he can produce an above average one.

I don’t think I’m wrong in saying that the market should change come jump time. I’m expecting a positive push for 6 Social Spin (Bet Now: $3.40), a Darren Weir trained three year old who went enormous here last time out, sitting wide no cover for the trip yet drew away and looked home, only to be bloused late by Phoneme. Should get a better run this time around and at $5+, he’s the way to go.

4 Naantali (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Maher/Eustace trained mare who looks to be set for a good campaign. Resumed down the straight here against the mares where she was under pressure a fair way out but kept responding and was surging late when a close up fifth to Smart Coupe. Much better suited at 1400m and on a bending track. One of the hardest to beat.

7 Renegade (Bet Now: $9.00) rises a fair bit in grade/depth but he’s on the up. Resumed over this track/distance where he built into the race really nicely between the 800m-200m but the last furlong his condition gave out when fourth to Fallen Empire. May want the mile, but down in the weights, placed in his lone second up appearance and is another that appears overs.

Bit of a bludger of a race to be honest so having a throw at the stumps via the Tony Vasil trained 13 Coronel (Bet Now: $14.00), who looks to be flying this time in. Impressive maiden winner two back at Hamilton, beating subsequent Caulfield winner Royal Performance. He then went to Mornington and was most unlucky not to win when second to Circomo, suffering interference at various stages. Clearly clocked the fastest final 400m and 200m of the race, suggesting 1800m will be okay, and with only 51kg on his back, I can entertain at $26+.

3 Phoneme (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Chris Waller trained three year old who has won his past two starts in brilliant fashion. Stunning effort to win two back at Bendigo before going to the 1400m here where he again looked in a nasty position but sprouted wings late to grab Social Spin on the peg. The 1800m is the unknown with him but if he produces that finish at the end of 1800m, he’s in the game.

The set up for 2 Box On Collins (Bet Now: $8.50) has been interesting. Given every chance on speed two back over 2250m on the Parks track at Morphettville when second to subsequent Flemington winner Crafty Devil before stepping back to 1500m at Gawler (Metro) and finding them too sharp. Getting back up in trip now…not sure he’s got much upside, but is hard and his earlier form was strong.

Just leaning the way of 8 Cash Affair (Bet Now: $4.80) for Darren Weir. Good effort down the straight here two back behind Moor Wanted before backing up a week later at this track/distance when a closing fourth to Fallen Empire. May have to get a fair way back from the draw but there looks to be good speed so she should get her chance to run on late.

6 Lady Cromac (Bet Now: $4.60) is bursting to win a race for Kevin Corstens. Very unlucky not to win two back at the midweek program at Caulfield before racing there again on Boxing Day where she ran a game second to Flying Krupt. Very well in after the claim, hopefully can get three wide cover and have a look at them late. Very much deserving of a win.

12 It’s A Myth (Bet Now: $7.00) could be one to include at odds. She comes through what looked a handy Class One at Caulfield and she was one of many hard luck stories in the race, getting little room in the straight behind Blinder, who had clear air and momentum. Regan jumps on, suited to Flemington I think and at double figures I could definitely entertain her.

1 Ripplebrook (Bet Now: $6.00) is an absolute beauty for Sharyn Trolove, and I think he can run well despite the class rise. Had his first look at 2000m last start at Bairnsdale and admittedly, he got a soft lead, but he careered away when asked for an effort and on the line he won under a hold. Looks to get over comfortably from the draw and for mine is a definite winning chance.

2 Savaheat (Bet Now: $8.50) is getting close to D-Day to see if he’s a contender or pretender. He ran over this track/distance last time and was solid without being great when fifth to Lamborghini but bear in mind they ran quick in that race and he probably wasn’t suited to that style of race. Tempo should be more gentle, soft gate…he can be dangerous with clear air.

5 Prince Ziggy (Bet Now: $8.50) faces his toughest test to date but he’s absolutely flying at the moment for Jamie Edwards. Ran over 2040m at the Valley last start where he was given a lovely steer by Chelsea MacFarlane, saving ground nearer the inside before getting the split and dashing clear late. He’ll be strong at the end I’m sure and with the claim he isn’t badly in at the weights.

1 Theanswermyfriend (Bet Now: $5.00) on top. I think Darren Weir has got the key to this horse and he’s starting to race on a much more consistent basis. Loved the way he found when challenged to win first up on Pakenham Cup Day and that form has already been franked by Princess Of Queens. Yet to run down the straight before, but draws out, so he should be fine and he’s tough.

I really wanted to put 5 Call Me Handsome (Bet Now: $7.00) on top. He’s yet to run a bad race for the Gelagotis boys since coming from Hong Kong, ending his Spring with a tough on speed win in the Heatherlie. The reason he isn’t on top is because the recent Moe jumpout he contested, he was well held by country class animals and was pushed out. I’d want a market push before backing him because the jumpout was ordinary.

4 Missrock (Bet Now: $14.00) is a bit of an enigma but her best version would see a win here. She’s been a bit off the boil recently but in saying that, the races have been far stronger than what she faces here. Has been freshened up and trialled recently at Stony Creek and on face value, she was pretty plain, but didn’t trial in blinkers, a key bit of gear got her. Taking the chance she brings something near her best.

Was hoping the bookies had missed 15 Californiagrandcru (Bet Now: $21.00) and yep, they have. I’m really keen on this horse running a bold race at odds. Loved the way he dug in to win two back at Sandown before racing over 2500m here where he was ridden poorly by Regan IMO. Just waited far too long to get going but clearly produced the best late splits of the race. He’ll eat up 2800m…doesn’t have the class of some of these but he’ll stay all day and a hard 2800m will be no issue.

If it turns into a 400-600m dash for cash then 3 Etymology (Bet Now: $2.60) will win. He’s the best horse in the race by a mile on class/form/ability and is in a winning frame of mind after spanking his rivals over 2500m here last time under a lovely steer from Ben Melham. Loses nothing with Williams taking over and based on last start, the extra 300m should be no trouble.

Another horse that should have no trouble with the 2800m is the Darren Weir trained 12 Bringit (Bet Now: $26.00), who comes here in winning form also after winning over 2500m at the Valley last time. Loved the way he won under the lights. Made a long searching run to be on speed, then boot for home and was probably out of petrol tickets late but still too good. Should get a lovely run from the gate and is a knockout chance at odds.

I won’t be carrying Chris Caserta’s pom poms anytime soon but I’m pinning my faith in him to start 2019 on the right note via 3 Laure Me In (Bet Now: $2.70), who looks an absolute moral with normal luck. He got luck last time at Caulfield…it was just all bad, and also the ride from Beau Mertens was a howler. Drew wide but somehow found himself last the fence in a nasty spot and the last 400m was a nightmare. Please Chris…please get the horse three wide with cover and he should do the rest.

The mile is a little query but hard to knock the way 4 Goethe (Bet Now: $11.00) is going about his business. Ran over 1400m at Caulfield last time where he didn’t stop chasing when flat footed and surged hard late to just miss out on picking up Critical Thinking. Off that last run, the mile will be okay. Just not sure he’s got the zip in the legs to go with Laure Me In.

12 Hostar (Bet Now: $18.00) could be a horse to include in wider multiples. The Peter Chow stable is absolutely flying at the moment and this horse is going well. He ran over the 1700m here last time and didn’t stop chasing when sixth to a potential star in Declares War. Gets the claim for Tahlia Hope, back to the mile should be fine and he does appear massive odds here.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 Laure Me In

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 6 Social Spin

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 15 Californiagrandcru

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 9

Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 7

Leg Three: 2, 3, 12, 15

Leg Four: 3

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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