1/1/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Standish Handicap day

Victorian racing returns to Flemington this New Years Day, the first meeting staged at Headquarters since Cup Week. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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I’m pretty keen to have a bet on 7 Mirette (Bet Now: $5.00). Archie Alexander trains this daughter of Unencumbered who is having her first start but I think she looks ready to go off the back of a sharp Ballarat jump out win where she led all the way and I thought she did it quite comfortably in the end. Draws to get clear running here and has gate speed.

5 Khulaasa (Bet Now: $3.60) is a daughter of Epaulette on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig team. I can’t find a jump out for her so it’s a bit of an unknown, but the two ticks are that there is market support to suggest she’ll run well and the other tick, more notable, is that D Oliver rides, and he has a good strike rate with the stable.

3 Dark Confidant (Bet Now: $7.50) is a daughter of Pierro on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. This girl has had two official trials before jumping out on December 22 at Flemington where she was tucked in behind the speed and went to the line quite nicely I thought, especially the last 50m when diving back to the rail. Think she can measure up.

1 Nikitas (Bet Now: $8.50) is a four year old with the Weir camp who can be hot and cold but since joining Weir, he has been more consistent. He was heavily backed last time out on the Parks track over 1400m and the bets were landed when Yendall rode him positively on speed and the horse reacted for a dominant win. He can measure up here for sure.

2 Wise Hero (Bet Now: $3.90) quickly rises to the 1400m after a couple of 1000m runs to kick off the prep, the latest coming at Moonee Valley where I thought he did a pretty good job against the pattern to just miss out on picking up Murphy’s Reward. Untried beyond 1200m, but he gets a sweet draw and the claim for Steph Thornton is a big tick.

9 Indian Thunder (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Darren Weir trained three year old who had been just going through the motions as such so the stable sent him to the Parks track in Adelaide for a kill and what he delivered was a most impressive win against a field which had a bit of depth to it. Not as much as this though, and is now against the older horses, but hard to knock the way he is going now.

6 O’Lonera (Bet Now: $6.50) has found that winning feeling again and now he has it, he can go right on with it here in a thin race. Lot to like about the victory at Pakenham I thought given he was asked to go around 800m from home and was hard on speed pressing. There to be beat but he kept finding. Gets right down in the weights and Beau Mertens steers.

1 Articus (Bet Now: $3.70) has promised so much since coming to Australia but he hasn’t quite lived up to the expectations. But he did find some form last start in the Werribee Cup where to the eye, he got the win, but the photo went the way of Aeratus in a very deceptive finish. He is a pure dry track horse, so if we do get a firm Flemington surface, I think he’ll take some beating.

3 Shoreham (Bet Now: $4.80) is racing as well as ever for Saab Hassan after stints in NSW and QLD. He has returned to Flemington in just fab order and that was confirmed with a really strong and determined win at Caulfield last time out. On his home track, 2000m suits, down in the weights and will give his all. Definite contender.

4 Last Week (Bet Now: $3.30) for me. Darren Weir trains this progressive stayer who had let the punters down badly in recent times but he was back in the good books last start at the Valley with a dominant win, aided by a brilliant and aggressive steer from John Allen. Gets the claim for Ethan Brown now, draws well and the 2000m at Flemington looks ideal.

15 Civil Disobedience (Bet Now: $4.60) is a stablemate of Last Week who is also racing in good form. He ran over 2000m at Mornington last time out and looked in awful trouble on the turn but Allen got the gap nearer the inside and savaged the line to grab the win in the last few strides. He’ll eat up this scenario and loses nothing with Lane on board.

12 Sea Spirit (Bet Now: $27.00) should be close to peak fitness now third up from a near two year break. He loomed last time out at Sandown but just couldn’t quite finish it off when fifth to Hell On Earth. Up to the 2000m is a big tick, draws to get good cover, probably three wide, and blend in at the right time to launch.

11 Lu Bu (Bet Now: $26.00) on top. Mick Price trains this colt who comes to town off the back of a last start maiden triumph at Kilmore over the mile. Not sure he beat much but the win was arrogant given he was three wide most of the way yet ambled to them on the turn and put the race to bed quickly. Confident he can measure up.

6 Silent General (Bet Now: $5.50) is a son of Walking Or Dancing for Darren Weir who is racing really well at the moment. Charged to the line to win two back at Sandown before racing at Moonee Valley where he didn’t look entirely happy around the circuit but stuck on well behind Tenappy Ladies. The bigger track looks ideal and he rates highly.

17 Raymax (Bet Now: $31.00) is a Richard Laming trained four year old who had trialled up well prior to resuming over the Mornington mile where he sat back in a slowly run affair and despite wobbling on the turn, gee he lengthened nicely in the straight to win in the last couple of strides. Can only see upside and gets in well after the claim for Chris Caserta.

3 Flippant (Bet Now: $4.00) each way for me. Really good mare that resumes for Team Snowden. Hasn’t raced since the Auries Star down the straight at Flemington where she was most disappointing, albeit behind a proper Group l horse in Hey Doc. Thought she trialled up enormous at Gosford recently, she goes well fresh and is drawn perfectly.

11 Toy Boy (Bet Now: $5.00) is the new kid on the block and this will be a good guide to see how good this bloke really is. Everyone wanted to jump off last start at Mornington after the bar plates were on but he produced his career best win with a dominant display. Dodged the Christmas Stakes in preference for this.

4 Chamois Road (Bet Now: $7.00) is the knockout chance. This horse is just absolutely flying at the moment for Patrick Payne and he will get the drop on a likely strong speed. That scenario happened last start over 1400m on the Parks track but he couldn’t reel in Nikitas. Gets a lovely run on the map and he’ll be strong late.

4 Ormito (Bet Now: $8.00) is building towards a win and I think he gets his chance here. Thought Williams rode him a treat last time out over the 2500m at the Valley but he couldn’t reel in Dandy Gent. Not sure Moonee Valley is his track, so I think the bigger surroundings and up to 2800m should suit him perfectly.

9 Bint El Bedu (Bet Now: $5.00) is a progressive staying mare for Mick Price who was three weeks between runs when racing over 2400m at Caulfield last time out. I just think she got too far back and had to sustain a long run. Just bottomed out with 150m to go when surging. Think she’ll love the rise to 2800m and should be fitter.

1 Like A Carousel (Bet Now: $17.00) is a bludger and he confirmed that by knocking nearly punter out of the quaddie when winning the Pakenham Cup last start. He just kept grinding and grinding away in what was a brutal contest and under Ben Thompson he surged hard the last 50m to win. He’ll have no trouble with the trip and should get a soft run from the gate.

I think now that the confidence of 6 Hectopascal (Bet Now: $7.00) is high, she can go right on with it now. Ran at Sandown a couple of Wednesdays back where she was heavily backed and with some assistance from an absolute peach by Ethan Brown, the mare dashed and kicked away for a dominant win. Hoping she goes right on with it now.

13 So Far Sokool (Bet Now: $3.90) is a three year old filly who is a few weeks between runs for the Archie Alexander team since scoring a narrow but impressive win over 1500m under the lights at Moonee Valley. She was purchased originally with the Thousand Guineas in mind. Clearly not up to that, but she is talented and this looks ideal.

7 Sharing (Bet Now: $21.00) is also a few weeks between runs. This mare resumed over 1200m at the Valley and looked a little unlucky in the straight when having a bit to offer behind Our Sevira. Form out of that race has been good, and this mare has alot of upside, plus the stable is going really well at the moment.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 Flippant

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 7 Mirette

VALUE: Race Five Number 11 Lu Bu

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 6, 9, 11, 16

Leg Two: 3

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9

Leg Four: 6, 7, 8, 13

$50 Investment= 41.66% of the dividend if successful

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