The Newmarket Carnival wraps up on Sunday night with a bumper ten race program, highlighted by the 1000 Guineas (1600m) for the Fillies.
Race 1. (22:15) Stallions Fillies Maiden Stakes 1207m
Complete guessing game here with all first starters, so thinking is breeding and price tag, so on top is 11 Noble Dynasty (Bet Now: $2.50). Dubawi colt for Charlie Appleby that cost 3.6 Million Guineas and is a half brother to three winners, most notably the very well performed Barney Roy. Buick to steer so I’ll go his way but as I said, complete guessing game.
8 Haseef (Bet Now: $13.00) is a son of Dark Angel on debut for the Roger Varian stable with Jim Crowley to steer. Cost 100,000 Guineas and is another that is well related being a close relation to the talented sprinting mare Pipalong. Well respected in early betting markets and is bred to come to hand early. Leading chance.
12 Rainbow Fire (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Kodiac colt on debut for the powerful John Gosden yard. This youngster cost 200,000 Guineas as a yearling and is well related being a sibling to a couple of impressive winners. Stable does have a couple engaged so I think watch the market with his runners and which ones they are leaning towards.
Race 2. (22:50) Buckhounds Stakes (Listed) 2414m
If 2 Communique (Bet Now: $2.80) is anywhere near right, he should be too good for these. Produced some outstanding performances around this time last year before heading to Germany to tackle three Group l races where he really failed to fire a shot each time he stepped out, one of those races seeing the recent Coronation Cup winner Ghaiyyath take it out. If he’s right, he wins.
Really good test here for 10 Trueshan (Bet Now: $5.50). Lightly raced four year old with plenty to offer in terms of progression and upside. Resumes and gets Tom Marquand to steer after producing some impressive efforts towards the end of last year. Don’t think he’s well in at the weights at all alongside Communique, but he deserves respect with his winning strike rate.
1 Secret Advisor (Bet Now: $17.00) has done little wrong in his career to date for Charlie Appleby. Had a two run prep in Dubai, winning them both over 2800m. Lightly raced and being six, the stable have been patient. IMO, he can’t win at the weights and not sure he has the class/turn of foot, but can’t knock a winner, which is what he is.
Race 3. (23:25) Betfair Bet In-Play Handicap 2011m
The wraps on 1 Davydenko (Bet Now: $3.00) are pretty good and if you believe them, he should win here. Sir Michael Stoute trained four year old that really put it together last prep, winning several races, with his only failure coming in the Britannia at Royal Ascot. Looks a Group horse of the future and if that’s the case, he wins here.
6 Good Birthday (Bet Now: $3.25) is the big known. Andrew Balding trained son of Dabirsim that makes his 2020 debut as a gelding having recorded strong wins at Newbury and Doncaster when last in work. The form around him is nowhere near as strong as Davydenko, but has been gelded, gets Murphy to steer and can run well fresh.
4 Protected Guest (Bet Now: $29.00) rises a bit in depth but he’s going well and has a solid overall record. Hasn’t raced since September 19 at Yarmouth when a solid second to Summer Moon, carrying 63.5kg. Tumbles in weight for this assignment and Tom Queally does stick for the resumption. Not sure he wins, but one for multiples.
Race 4. (00:00) Pretty Polly Stakes 2011m
John Gosden won this race back in 2013 with Talent before she went on to win the Oaks and history might repeat itself in 2020 with 8 Tiempo Vuela (Bet Now: $3.25), a Lope De Vega filly that gave them a galloping lesson on debut at Newcastle, looking like a really sharp filly destined for better things. Good test here, but I think she’s up to it.
Charlie Appleby has a couple engaged here but with Buick riding 1 Alpen Rose (Bet Now: $7.00), I’m going to assume she’s the pick of the runners. Talented filly that hasn’t raced since the Montrose back in November where she really struggled on heavy ground, so forgive and forget she went around there. Much better on firmer footing this time around and has a touch of class.
3 Endless Echoes (Bet Now: $13.00) is not without some hope here for Charlie Appleby. Debuted over 1900m at Wolverhampton when unwanted in betting but she was impressive in winning. Being closely related to former top galloper Hamada, you would assume this girl will get better as the distance increases, so perhaps one from an Oaks perspective to keep an eye on.
Race 5. (00:35) 1000 Guineas 1609m
8 Quadrilateral (Bet Now: $3.75) on top. Unbeaten in three career outings for Roger Varian, the latest coming at this track/distance in the Fillies Mile back in October where everything that could go wrong did, but she surged hard late and scored a remarkable win. She’s a star, has more to come, and is definitely the one to beat.
6 Love (Bet Now: $4.50) is an Aidan O’Brien trained filly who was the #1 juvenile from that stable last year, winning a couple of quality races before a strong third in the Fillies Mile to Quadrilateral. Off that Fillies Mile run, turning the tables is a task, but she’s in the right stable to improve big time from age two to three.
1 Boomer (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Tom Dascone trained daughter of Kingman who was building up a good overall record in a short space of time before going to the Fillies Mile where she seemed to have her chance behind Quadrilateral. The query is 1600m at the top level…does it see her out? You’ll know 100% after this.
Race 6. (01:10) Betfair Exchange Handicap 1609m
3 Bell Rock (Bet Now: $3.75) for me. Andrew Balding trained gelding who has had four career outings for just the one win, but keep in mind he has contested some strong races, including the St James’ Palace at Royal Ascot. Finds such a winnable race to resume in and Oisin Murphy to ride. I think he’s the way to go here.
7 Ebury (Bet Now: $3.25) has his share of talent and has to be respected against these. Had a two run prep when last in work, winning first up over the mile at Ascot before a solid second at this track/distance and was tipped out soon after. Has more to come you would assume and with some decent form lines, is a leading contender.
8 Kryptos (Bet Now: $17.00) is a fascinating runner. John Berry trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since September 2017 when winning over the mile at Doncaster and at the time, he looked a very promising. Clearly has had his issues if he hasn’t raced since then, so an obvious market watch, but he showed good talent when he last raced.
Race 7. (01:45) Stallions Novice Stakes (Div 1) 1609m
Another race with guessing for the most part, but 5 Eastern World (Bet Now: $1.83) has to be putting these away if he’s heading towards the Derby. The close relation to Thunder Snow debuted on the Kempton All Weather back in December when a short priced favourite but found one better on the day in Starcat, but was still far from disgraced. Godolphin have high hopes for this guy as a Derby prospect, especially with the breeding.
Of the raced brigade, only threat is 2 King Leonidas (Bet Now: $2.20), a 750,000 Guineas purchase who created such a good impression when winning on debut over 1400m here back in October and was tipped out soon after with better races in mind. Looks a really good colt of the future, in the right stable and will take some beating.
11 Winter Reprise (Bet Now: $21.00) is a very interesting runner. On debut for the Menuisier camp. Cost 290,000 Guineas and is related to several handy gallopers that did get out over a trip, so 1600m is a little query, but I think you have to take note with the booking of Ryan Moore for the debut. Watch the market.
Race 8. (02:20) Stallions Novice Stakes (Div 2) 1609m
The breeding suggests that 10 Sunday Major (Bet Now: $1.66) will be a good one so with that in mind, going his way. Dubawi colt that is closely related to several nice gallopers, notably the classy miler Kingman. There are many well bred newcomers stepping out here, but he’s the pick of them and always have to respect the Gosden/Dettori combo.
9 Spectrum Of Light (Bet Now: $3.75) is interesting. Godolphin paid 325,000 Guineas for him and immediately gelded him. Debuted over the mile at Newcastle on the All Weather track and was good in defeat when second to Desert Flyer. Third and fourth have come out of that race to win, so that reads well, and Charlie Appleby will no doubt have him ready to go.
5 Boss Power (Bet Now: $11.00) can be a definite improver here. 375,000 Guineas purchase that debuted at Yarmouth back in August and on face value, he was ordinary in running last of four runners, but that race has turned out to be a pretty good form race. He’s with Sir Michael Stoute and with the extended break, he’s sure to improve.
Race 9. (02:55) Betfair Weighed In Podcast Hcp 2011m
3 Native Tribe (Bet Now: $4.50) is a Charlie Appleby trained colt that is first up. Ran second on debut at Newbury behind Encipher before going to Sandown where he stepped out to the mile and despite a narrow margin, the win was pretty good. He seems a real professional that does everything right and that should hold him in good stead.
7 Al Maysan (Bet Now: $4.20) is a stablemate of Native Tribe who is 2/2 to start his career, albeit both wins coming on the All Weather, but each time he has looked pretty good. Like him up in trip for the resumption and while the margins in those two wins weren’t big, he did show ticker, which is a good trait for a younger horse.
10 Vindicate (Bet Now: $9.00) is in the hands of Sir Michael Stoute and carries the colours of the Queen so there will be obvious interest with him. Far from disgraced on debut over 1400m before going to Chelmsford over the mile and with Ryan Moore taking the ride, he made a mess of them. Showing good promise and is a key threat.
Race 10. (03:30) Betfair Each Way Edge Handicap (Class 3) 1005m
3 Motagally (Bet Now: $2.50) in the get out. Charlie Hills trained gelding that hasn’t raced since October 5 at Wolverhampton when putting them away like a good horse and seemingly did it with something in reserve under Kieran Shoemark. This isn’t the strongest race going around and if he produces what he was doing last prep, he wins.
2 Top Breeze (Bet Now: $3.75) will have admirers for Richard Hughes and Ryan Moore. Ran on the All Weather at Lingfield back in April and was a pretty strong winner over 1000m, running really sharp time in the process. That’s his advantage over Motagally. That horse is more effective at 1200m whereas Top Breeze, IMO, is best suited at 1000m.
1 Jabbarockie (Bet Now: $9.00) has really good early toe and will no doubt be looking to produce sustained speed in taking this out. That’s what he did two back when spanking them at Musselburgh before going to York where he found a hot race and had excuses behind Dakota Gold. Stable gets William Buick to steer, so watch the market.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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