The Newmarket Carnival continues on Saturday night with a nine race card, headlined by the Group l 2000 Guineas (1600m).
Race 1. (22:15) BETFAIR EXCHANGE HCP 1000m
Tricky race to kick off the meeting but leaning the way of 4 Count D’Orsay (Bet Now: $6.00). Had five runs for Tim Easterby last prep when joining the stable mid campaign and won three races and overall was very good. Stable finds James Doyle to steer and he is a horse who generally needs a run, but stable has him for a pull prep to prepare, so I’ll go his way.
5 Aplomb (Bet Now: $5.50) is a son of Lope De Vega that resumes for William Haggas with ‘Aussie Tom’, Tom Marquand, to steer. Showed good promise last prep, winning a couple of 1200m races and was close up down the straight at Ascot two back. Marquand has a good record with this guy. If there is a knock, it’s 1000m given he’s better suited over 1200m.
12 Restless Rose (Bet Now: $15.00) is a handy mare who can cause problems here at odds. Her recent racing when last in work was at Chelmsford where she was very good on the all weather track there, more often than not around the mark in some tidy races. Back to the turf I don’t mind for her, she sprints well fresh and has a sharp 1000m record.
Race 2. (22:50) Palace House Stakes 1000m
5 Major Jumbo (Bet Now: $7.00) ran well in this race last year, finishing third, and I think a repeat effort here will see him go one better given this years edition looks a bit weaker compared to 2019. The form around him from last year was very good, with efforts behind the likes of Ten Sovereigns and Hello Youmzain reading very well for a race like this. Has early speed, will be near the front and hard to run down.
4 Judicial (Bet Now: $7.00) is a talented animal and is another with some strong form lines leading into this race. Only have to go back to last year where he ran behind Blue Point in the King’s Stand and a few runs later was far from disgraced behind Battaash, one of the best 1000m sprinters in the world. 1000m specialist and generally runs well fresh.
11 Hareem Queen (Bet Now: $21.00) has done little wrong in her career to date, but the big test for her here is can she translate her form from the All Weather to the turf, with most of her racing career coming on Synthetic tracks. But she’s lightly raced with a good winning strike rate and stable finds Andrea Atzeni to take the ride.
Race 3. (23:25) Dahlia Stakes 2000m
Think Godolphin win the race. Just a matter of deciding which one. 1 Magic Lily (Bet Now: $3.75) is just on top. Returns to the UK after a fruitful campaign at Dubai, where she won the first two in impressive fashion before a close up second to the very classy animal Barney Roy. Yet to really prove herself at 2000m, but gives every indication that it will be fine.
7 Terebellum (Bet Now: $2.20) looks the only other winning chance. Lightly raced daughter of Sea The Stars that hasn’t raced since October when a close up fifth at Group l level at Longchamp behind Villa Marina, but I’m not sure she was entirely happy on the heavy track. Frankie is back aboard for the resumption and the small field certainly helps.
6 Sweet Promise (Bet Now: $29.00) can fill a first four spot. Put together a couple of okay wins at Novice level before running third at Listed level at Longchamp. The ran at this track/distance and was terrible behind Fanny Logan. Gets Tom Marquand to steer and she’s lightly raced with upside to come you would assume.
Race 4. (00:00) Newmarket Stakes 2000m
I think it’s a case of any price when it comes to 9 Waldkonig (Bet Now: $1.80), who does look the good thing on the card. The half brother to Arc winner Waldgeist, gee he looked a star when winning on debut at Wolverhampton back in December. Didn’t smash the clock, but you only have to watch the way he put them away. He looks a potential star and should be accounting for this lot.
1 Al Aasy (Bet Now: $8.00) looks an improving type for the William Haggas team with Jim Crowley to steer. Debuted over 1400m here back in October when very raw and new to the caper, which held him back a bit from finishing it off better when third. He’ll be much better for the extended break you would assume. Highly doubt he beats Waldkonig but runs well all the same.
Fascinating runner is 2 Cherokee Trail (Bet Now: $29.00). Won his first two starts and looked very much above average, but the next two starts, he looked like a hack and failed to fire a shot each time. Not really sure what to put that down, but he’s back, resumes at 2000m and Ryan Moore steers. He is the one that looks value outside Waldkonig.
Race 5. (00:35) 2000 Guineas 1600m
The only knock with 12 Pinaturbo (Bet Now: $1.66) is 1600m. Not so much knock, but a query. If you knew he would see it out strongly, he would be $1.01 in the race because he is potentially the best horse in the world. Just stunning what he produced when last in work and easily accounted on a couple of occasions the second favourite Arizona. He’s comfortably on top.
The only saving grace for 2 Arizona (Bet Now: $9.50) is the record Aidan O’Brien has in this race. He is looking for his 11th win, quite a remarkable effort. Of course was an impressive winner of the Coventry at Royal Ascot but when it came to taking on Pinaturbo, he was well and truly found out. On form, he can’t beat Pinaturbo here, but have to respect the stable.
8 Military March (Bet Now: $19.00) is one with progression and enormous upside. Has created such a good impression in his short career to date, winning 2/2, both at Newmarket, with the latest of those seeing him win at this track/distance, so he’s ticked the 1600m box and that’s the thing in his corner. Doubt he wins, but runs well.
Race 6. (01:10) BEST ODDS ON BETFAIR HCP 1600m
3 Montatham (Bet Now: $3.25) on top. William Haggas trainst with Jim Crowley to steer. Hasn’t raced since November 11 on the All Weather at Kempton Park where he ran a solid fourth to Entangling over the mile, albeit a beaten favourite. Showed good potential last prep and noteworthy that he returns to racing as a gelding.
10 Jalaad (Bet Now: $5.50) is a lightly raced son of Kodiac for the Saeed Bin Suroor stable. Has mixed his form somewhat throughout his career, but one thing that is notable is that he loves racing fresh. First up last prep he gave them a spanking over 1400m at Doncaster and went on to run well in some tidy races. Claim helps and is a key chance.
8 Model Guest (Bet Now: $23.00) is still a maiden, but he has okay form to fill a minor spot. He was far from disgraced at Royal Ascot last year in the Sandringham Handicap and for the most part was around the mark in four subsequent outings. Can he win? I’m saying no, but for trifectas and first fours, I’d be including.
Race 7. (01:45) BETFAIR PODCAST HCP 1400m
Think you have to be with 7 Nahaarr (Bet Now: $2.80) for the Haggas/Marquand combo. Created a really good impression in his first prep, winning 4/4 before going to the 1400m here when running third as a beaten favourite but perhaps hadn’t quite handled the transition back to turf from the All Weather the start prior. Looks the most progressive out of the lot of these and happy to be in his corner.
1 Qaysar (Bet Now: $4.75) is a son of Choisir for the Richard Hannon stable that gets Ryan Moore to ride for the resumption. Had a very good prep last time in, winning four of five before going to a strong race at Ascot and failing to fire, but considering what he had done prior, it was job done for the campaign. Very capable horse when resuming and 1400m is his distance.
3 Blown By Wind (Bet Now: $7.00) could be a chance at odds. Wasn’t really asked for too much of an effort when he resumed on the All Weather at Wolverhampton back in March, but he’s clearly a horse much better on the turf. Would love a drop of rain to arrive because if it did, he would come right into play.
Race 8. (02:20) BETFAIR HCP 1200m
I’ll take a punt with 1 Lazuli (Bet Now: $3.75), who resumes for Charlie Appleby. Won his first two outings in pretty good style before going to a Group lll over 1200m here and failed to fire. He’s in the right stable and like he resumes at 1200m, plus during the break has been gelded and has had a wind operation. Market will be the main guide, but suspect he’s ready to go.
9 Smokey Bear (Bet Now: $4.50) is a son of Kodiac that resumes. Had a four run prep to start his career starting back in July and he looks pretty bulletproof it seems. Does everything right, has a turn of foot, relaxes in the run…plenty to like about him and should get a lovely run from the gate. Looks to be one of the hardest to beat.
2 Jouska (Bet Now: $11.00) will be dangerous if either the tempo is strong or if she’s within range 400m out. She can leave her run a bit late but if she gets a sniff, she can launch late and beat these. Just left it too late last time out over 1000m here but has always looked a filly that will appreciate 1200m, which she gets here first up.
Race 9. (02:55) BETFAIR EXCHANGE HCP 2400m
Think the Queen can win the last with her well bred gelding 8 Calculation (Bet Now: $6.00). The Visor going on last prep really switched him on, seeing him win a few races before being thrown in the deep end in a strong Class 2 over 2800m and failed, but with excuses. Like him at 2400m as a kick off point and Ryan Moore takes the ride.
5 Rock Eagle (Bet Now: $4.75) is a fascinating runner. Lightly raced gelding that hasn’t raced in over 12 months. His last run came at Goodwood over 2800m when last in a field of four won by Mirage Dancer, a horse Australian punters would know well given he’s contested the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup. Market will be the guide as to how forward he is, but he’s got more upside than most.
7 Nate The Great (Bet Now: $3.75) is one at value I think. Formerly with Archie Watson but is now with the Andrew Balding team. His form is littered with blacktype races, including a third in a Derby trial, so the quality is there. Towards the end of last prep, the form was starting to taper off, so he’s switched stables and has been gelded.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 9 Waldkonig
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Magic Lily
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 8 Calculation
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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