29/7/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Goodwood, Sussex Stakes day

The Goodwood Carnival continues on Wednesday night with a seven race card, highlighted by a fascinating edition of the Group l Sussex Stakes (1609m).

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On top in the opener is 8 Waliyak (Bet Now: $2.25). Roger Varian trained filly that resumed in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot and closed off really well when second to Onassis, and perhaps a little unlucky because she was towards the outside and the only hose in that part of the track to be near the winner. Hard to beat against these and up to 2000m is a big tick.

4 Ghaziyah (Bet Now: $6.00) is a definite market watch here. William Haggas trains this mare, who hasn’t raced since October 5 at Newmarket over 2000m when finding the line pretty well in defeat in running second to Eva Maria. Has good enough form around her to be a leading contender but first up off a long break, watch the market.

7 Chamade (Bet Now: $17.00) is one of the key threats. This filly resumed in a Listed race over 2000m at Newbury and despite being long odds, she ran a beauty when third to Franconia, beaten just under six lengths in a handy race. Much better suited here in a handicap and has got plenty of upside to come. One of the hardest to beat.

Going to give 7 Smart Champion (Bet Now: $9.00) another chance. Good in defeat first up at Royal Ascot in the Ascot Stakes. Came back to the two miles in the Northumberland Plate and the way the track played, he had no chance, so forget he went around. Like him back up to 4000m, can sit closer in the run and any give in the track certainly won’t hurt.

2 Summer Moon (Bet Now: $6.00) will welcome the drop in depth. Resumed with a close up third in the Ascot Stakes during Royal Ascot before going to the Henry ll at Sandown and finished tailed off last behind Dashing Willoughby, a horse regarded as a potential Melbourne Cup candidate and did spank Cross Counter in that race, so interesting to see if Summer Moon can frank that form here.

16 Harbour Front (Bet Now: $51.00) could run a race here at odds. Resumed over two miles at Musselburgh. Was off the bit around 1000m from home but kept chipping away and was only beaten around three quarters. Right down in the weights looks a big tick for him and off that last start effort, he’ll stay 4000m no drama and is a knockout chance at odds.

4 Mambo Nights (Bet Now: $9.50) gets the nod. Richard Hannon trains this colt, who comes here off the back of a win over 2400m at Ripon three weeks ago where he seemed to love the rise to the 2400m and gee he was strong to the line in getting the job done from the front. Harder here, but he’s got more to come and is the one to beat.

7 Win O’Clock (Bet Now: $4.75) has really turned his form around since switching to Handicaps. This son of Australia is a last start winner over 2000m at Leicester where he was one of the first off the bit but kept grinding and was strong late in winning. Stepping back up to 2400m I do like for him and has got upside in the tank.

2 Encipher (Bet Now: $9.50) is worth another chance. John Gosden trained colt that was a beaten odds on pop fresh at Newbury before going to the Dante where she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Thunderous despite beating one runner home and was just under seven lengths from the winner. Back to this level I do like and can improve for sure.

8 Steel Bull (Bet Now: $4.50) looks a good one. Debuted over 1000m at Naas and not sure he beat a great deal, but the turn of foot he produced to put them away was that of a quality animal destined for better things. Colin Keane takes over the ride and ran sharp time for the meeting, so think he can measure up here.

9 Sardinia Sunset (Bet Now: $4.50) is a Roger Varian trained filly that was far from disgraced two back in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, which ensured she was short odds at York and justified the short quote with a dominant win. Showed in the Queen Mary she can measure up at this kind of level and has hard race fitness.

3 Chief Little Hawk (Bet Now: $8.00) has been a busy juvenile for Aidan O’Brien that has had four runs this prep, so in terms of upside, not sure there is much left, but has the O’Brien polish and was more than sound in defeat last time out at Listed level at Cork. Ryan Moore takes over and given the stable, has to be respected.

4 Kameko (Bet Now: $6.00) is on top in a fascinating edition of Sussex. Resumed with a strong win in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket before going to the Derby where he was sent around favourite. Well documented were the tactics behind the leader/winner, and Kameko was a definite pass mark under the circumstances. Think he’ll go awfully close here back to the mile.

Is 5 Siskin (Bet Now: $2.80) the next superstar of Euorpe? Comes here off the back of what was a stunning win in the Irish Guineas. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong but still somehow managed to produce a sparkling turn of foot and was too good. This is different gravy, but he does get the weight pull being a 3YO and that turn of foot is high class.

1 Circus Maximus (Bet Now: $7.00) has been kept on ice for Aidan O’Brien, having not raced since winning the Queen Anne where he really knuckled down late under Ryan Moore and surged hard late to just get the better of Terebellum. Being a 4YO, has to carry 61kg, but has the runs on the board and class, which will carry him a long way.

Sustained speed should see 6 Spright (Bet Now: $3.00) winning and a bit surprised she’s the price she is and not shorter. Good on debut at Doncaster before going to 1200m at York where she led throughout and she spanked them, winning by over five lengths. That form hasn’t been tested, but the Doncaster form hasn’t been too bad and I think she’ll lead these and be too good.

4 Miss Jingles (Bet Now: $4.50) is a daughter of Exceed And Excel for the Charlie Appleby team that comes here off the back of a narrow but strong win at Sandown over 1000m and the good thing is that she beat a horse that finished behind Spright at Doncaster, so with that in mind, think she has to be respected for an astute team.

5 Pelekai (Bet Now: $6.00) is another with good early speed and could give Spright some early pressure. Impressive debut winner on the All Weather at Newcastle but hasn’t quite measured up in a couple of subsequent runs. But looks a pace factor here in the small field and does have the hard fitness under the belt.

18 Society Lion (Bet Now: $4.50) for me in the get out. Thought he was a little unlucky not to win over 1400m at Doncaster last time out. Just had to wait to get clear and cut towards the inside of the pack, costing him ground and while he was there to win, I think he just didn’t get going at the right time. Ryan Moore takes over, draws wide…keen.

15 Verboten (Bet Now: $7.00) is an interesting runner. John Gosden trained colt that SP’d at $9 in the Futurity last year off the back of a brilliant debut win. failed in the Futurity and in two runs since has been very disappointing, but this looks a suitable race for him if he found anything near his debut, and Frankie sticks.

19 Mountain Brave (Bet Now: $11.00) is building up a good record and has earned a crack at this kind of level. This mare has won four of eight, winning her last two. Latest of those wins came at Windsor when near the speed throughout and she was strong to the line in winning. Like her up to 1400m and gets weight relief from last time.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 6 Spright

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 8 Steel Bull

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 7 Smart Champion

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