International form expert Xavier Blair gives us his full Happy Valley meeting analyses including race by race Tips & Selections.
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Happy Valley
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Race 1 |
Race 2 |
Race 3 |
Race 4 |
Race 5 |
Race 6 |
Race 7 |
Race 8 |
“C+3 Courseâ€
Race 1 Peng Chau Hcp Rtg 40-10 – 1650m
A host of chances here in this ordinary class 5 where it’s time for (9) Winning Strategy to finally
break through for his maiden victory after 21 starts. The 6yo son of West Quest has placed only
3 times in his career but his last few runs indicate he’s working up to a win, including a ½ length
second last time out over this course and distance to Amazing Venture. He was buried on the fence
on that occasion and will once again find himself coming from behind as he has a wide gate to
contend with. Douglas Whyte, leading the Jockey Premiership with 44 wins, should be able to deal
with it and have him sailing down the middle of the track with a late rush.
(9) Winning Strategy
(3) Star Of Chiu Ton
(12) Cover Boy
(1) Bulb Treasure
Race 2 Cheung Hcp Rtg 60-40 – 1000m
The main chances here like to race up on the pace and the early tempo is crucial to their chances.
The C+3 course always favours on pace runners so they should already have an advantage. (2)
Dane Patrol put in his best run in Hong Kong down the Sha Tin straight last start and looks suited
here from a gun alley. (3) Good Boy Boy has been around the mark in two subsequent runs after
a neck victory over Mariachi back in November at Sha Tin and can return to the winners list here.
(6) Amazing Sky is back in trip but has been racing well when pushing forward in recent times. He’s
much fitter. (1) Turin Champon and (8) Ride on the Fire can win with luck in running.
(2) Dane Patrol
(3) Good Boy Boy
(6) Amazing Sky
(8) Ride On The Fire
Race 3 Grass Island Hcp Rtg 60-40 – 1650m
Woeful race! Out of the 12 runners, they have only managed to amass 21 wins from 366 starts, with
(7) Master Dreamer winning 7 of the 21. Going to stick (3) Win A Dozen on top as he is the likely
reader and could prove too slick for most of these one paced battling types. With a nice run in front,
he could rack up win number 2 from 37 starts. (1) Steel Nerves doesn’t win out of turn but has found
a very weak race and can easily improve on his numerical form but has a wide gate to contend with.
(3) Win A Dozen
(1) Steel Nerves
(8) King On Earth
(5) Soldier
Race 4 Tung Lung Chau Hcp Rtg 65-40 – 1200m
Good race where I’m keen on (6) Fionn’s Dragon to get back into the winners list coming off two
close up seconds at his previous starts. He has a smart overall record and certainly won’t be far
away. (5) Eternal Beauty has strong form lines including a last start 4th where he led and was
swamped late by Grand Dragon and Forever Elation, the latter who was a strong victor in a stronger
race a fortnight ago.
(6) Fionn’s Dragon
(5) Eternal Beauty
(7) Young Turbo
(8) Sky Mascot
Race 5 Lantau Island Hcp Rtg 80-60 – 1200m
Looks a nice race for top weight (1) Our Pegasus to get back into the winners stall from a nice alley.
He has a consistent record here at Happy Valley and with his on-pace style of racing, he should
receive every chance from the draw. Bit of a watch on the first starter (3) Charity Spirit who is
making is debut from Great Britain who is bred to be a speed machine.
(1) Our Pegasus
(8) Super Plus
(5) Glenealy Star
(3) Charity Spirit
Race 6 Lamma Island Hcp Rtg 80-60 – 1650m
Keen on (6) Ocean Prince here at a bit of value, as he is working up to another win judging by his
last couple where he made up a ton of ground from last at Sha Tin behind King Al Akbar then here at
Happy Valley last start he had the box seat but was just outgunned in the final stages. He may have
sat too close on that occasion and this time from a wide draw he will be getting back and running on
strongly. (5) Go Lucky Go flashed home from the rear behind Legend Express last time out and he
strikes a similar race which puts him in the finish once again.
(6) Ocean Prince
(5) Go Lucky Go
(8) Panther Run *
(4) Time Legend
Race 7 Lamma Island Hcp Rtg 80-60 – 1650m
Good price here with (11) Kick Serve who has been threatening to win a race at a price after a couple
of handy finishes from well back in unsuitably run races. He made good ground behind (8) My Mate
Adric last start when giving him weight and now meets him on much better terms. Another strong
lead is Jeff Lloyd sticking with him. He’s a cracking each way hope.
(11) Kick Serve **
(1) Topping Light
(2) The Untouchablelad
(8) My Mate Adric
Race 8 The Manawatu Racing Club Challenge Trophy (Handicap) Rtg 95-75 – 1650m
Good race to end a handy program where I’m going with (4) Happy Tumbler who just loves it here,
winning 3 times and placing another 2 times. He draws a perfect alley which should see him three
back the fence and powering home along the inside. (7) Iron Fist will enjoy getting back to Happy
Valley and has won here before. Forget he ever went around last start when he was never closer
than 3 and 4 wide. He gets into this race on nice terms.
(4) Happy Tumbler
(7) Iron Fist
(9) Able Speed
(10) Cheer
Written by Xavier Blair
