18/6/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Royal Ascot, Commonwealth Cup day

The Royal Ascot Carnival continues on Friday night, headlined by the Commonwealth Cup (1200m) for the three year olds.

Commonwealth Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Commonwealth Cup

This is a really good race for the juvenile fillies. Many of these looked like jets last time out, most notably 6 Flotus (Bet Now: $3.75), who produced change up speed of a top class animal when debuting with a spank job at Goodwood. Stable finds Frankie to steer and if she runs up what she did at Goodwood, she could easily blow this field away.

12 Prettiest (Bet Now: $7.00) is a regally bred filly for Aidan O’Brien that was a strong debut winner at Navan. She didn’t beat a great deal and visually wasn’t as impressive, but what impressed me with her is the way she flattened out. She surged in front and wanted to win. Great sign for a young horse, so keen to see how she goes.

2 Cachet (Bet Now: $9.50) is trained by George Boughey, with this stable being the form camp for juveniles in the UK this season, with a strike rate of something near 40%. This youngster debuted down the straight at Newmarket and like most, dipped and dived on the track, but she still charged clear late to win well. Stable has to be respected given how well they are going at the moment.

Looks very well placed here does 7 Title (Bet Now: $4.75) for the Roger Varian camp. Thought there was a bit of class/quality about his last start win over this trip at Yarmouth. Good change up speed when asked to go and had something in hand to the eye. He’s only got upside to come and is the one to beat.

2 Alenquer (Bet Now: $3.00) is a William Haggas three year old that has been kept on ice since winning the Classic Trial at Sandown back in April, which ensured he was near the top of all in markets for the Derby, but the wet ground ensured he wouldn’t run. Gets the firm footing here and the form around him is strong.

Very interesting runner is 8 Yibir (Bet Now: $8.00) for Charlie Appleby. His last run came just under a month back at Goodwood where he ran second, beaten some four lengths, and was just fair I thought. I say interesting because since last run, he has been gelded, so watch the market with him.

Just how good is 21 Suesa? (Bet Now: $5.50) 4/4 to start her career and she’s the next big thing in France. All four starts, she has bolted up, looked top shelf…the knock being the wins have come on wet ground. But with a wet track likely on the cards with rain forecast, I think she’s clearly the one to beat.

13 Campanelle (Bet Now: $5.50) is a big watch. Wesley Ward trained filly that resumes and keep in mind she is a Royal Ascot winner already given she saluted last year in the Queen Mary, where she sat off the speed and finished best, which is against the norm for the stable, who love to have their runners on speed. Frankie rode her last year, he sticks…just has to see out the 1200m.

11 Supremacy (Bet Now: $9.00) is the great unknown. He was a star two year old last season. Resumed in the Pavilion and was just too bad to be true, running last in a field of eight, with connections scratching their head. He’s better than that surely and has runs in the bank from last year.

Have to be with 11 Primo Bacio (Bet Now: $4.75). It was unexpected what she produced at York, but the change up speed that was displayed was that of a top class filly. She was arrogant in putting them away, and I say unexpected because she did start $15. SP Profile fans won’t like her, but off what she did at York, I think she’s the one to beat.

6 Mother Earth (Bet Now: $4.75) has the Aidan O’Brien polish and has to be respected. Spanked them fresh in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket before going to Lonchamp where she ran a game third in what was a hot race. This looks an obvious target race for her and she did beat a fair chunk of these with ease at Newmarket.

1 Alcohol Free (Bet Now: $12.00) deserves another chance. Impressive win in her return at Newbury before starting favourite in the 1000 Guineas where she did a bit wrong in the run and probably cost herself any chance of a win when fifth to Mother Earth. Her best is good enough. Just needs to put it all together.

Banking on a genuine wet track here to help 6 Create Belief (Bet Now: $11.00). Johnny Murtagh trained filly that was an impressive winner at Curragh last time out, handling the wet track comfortably and was strong to the line. Ticking that sort of box should hold her in good stead for this assignment.

19 Belief (Bet Now: $17.00) looks a working progress for William Haggas. Good fresh at Nottingham before taking out a Novice race at Thirsk in good style, proving quite impressive late in the piece. Is bred to handle a wet track and drawn out, that should be the right part of the track.

16 Teodolina (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Richard Hannon trained filly that is showing promise. Won at this track/distance before going to Haydock where she stuck on well in defeat when third, though seemingly had every chance. But she’s progressive, heading in the right direction and should handle wet ground.

13 Quickthorn (Bet Now: $6.00) looks the one to beat. Gee he lengthened like a nice horse when resuming on heavy ground at Haydock. When he asked to go, he exploded and spanked them winning by eight lengths and his late splits were some of the best of the meeting. He can measure up here for sure.

9 Aaddeey (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Team Crisford trained gelding that has done little wrong in his short career to date. Impressive winner at Newmarket last time out in the Rowley under James Doyle, who remains on for this. Has placed on wet ground before and his overall figures measure up nicely for a race like this.

I’ll take a chance in including 5 Raymond Tusk (Bet Now: $23.00). The name might sound familiar to Australian punters given he ran in the 2019 Melbourne Cup when down the track behind Vow And Declare. Has had a few runs now for Alan King and hasn’t done a bad job despite not winning. He’ll love a truly run 2400m and can only see him running well.

7 Boomshalaa (Bet Now: $6.00) for me in the get out. Roger Varian trained three year old that was an impressive winner at Windsor last time out. He was tardy away but looked to travel sweetly in the run before getting clear air and surging late to win nicely. Drawn the right part of the track, handles wet ground and will be strong at the end.

15 Equality (Bet Now: $6.00) is the big unknown here. Two of his three runs to date have come on Synthetic tracks, including a maiden win last time out in what did look a weak race on paper but his late splits were off the charts hence why he has come up favourite here. I’d watch the late market flucs.

12 Popmaster (Bet Now: $15.00) is a very interesting runner. Ed Walker trained three year old that has been kept on ice since late April and returns to racing as a gelding. The form around him doesn’t read too bad for this and often the gelding operation can be a making of a horse, so keen to see how he goes.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 21 Suesa

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Flotus

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 6 Create Belief

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