11/12/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Happy Valley

A nine race card has been set down for Happy Valley on Wednesday night, with good depth across the program.

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These 2200m Class 5 races…gee they can be a hard watch. But, for the sake of a tip, on top is 2 Palace Pal (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He ran over this track/distance on Nov 13 and was good in defeat from just off the speed, finishing a close up third. Quiet tick over trial to keep him on the mark, Purton sticks and gee this race is looking thin.

1 On The Lash (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like 2200m suits and drops to Class 5 company, plus gets J Mac. He ran over 1800m at Sha Tin last time where he got into a tricky spot from the wide gate and just couldn’t get involved when down the track. Better suited here I feel and commands respect.

7 Golden Fairy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will put himself on speed and give his all. He contested the same race as Palace Pal from Nov 13 when near the front and kept chipping away but seemingly had his chance late when fourth. If he gets some form of front end control, he’ll be hard to get past.

2 Modest Gentleman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the good thing on the card IMO. I was keen on him at odds two weeks ago at this track/distance and he pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial, getting badly held up in the straight when full of running. Senior rider on, maps to get a perfect run…really keen.

1 Dan Attack (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good record at Happy Valley and drops to Class 5 company after racing down the straight at Sha Tin last start and was solid enough in defeat despite having his chance. Much better set up here IMO and does get J Mac on.

10 Plentiful (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won the race mentioned above that Modest Gentleman was luckless in. This guy had the suck run and presented at the right time time with clear air to finish best and win well. That was his first run in a month so with room for improvement, rates highly for me as a threat.

6 Telecom Dragon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the second of good things on the program. He has been strong in his past two runs, the latest coming three weeks ago at this track/distance when off speed and worked home strongly when second. J Mac on from a plum draw and hard fit, he’ll take a power of beating against these.

1 Bowser (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win. He is four weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance. He got a beaut run in transit near the speed and presented to win but just found a couple better. Should press forward and be around the mark once again.

2 Thriving Brothers (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for Doug Whyte, having not raced since Nov 3 at Sha Tin over 1400m when getting a good run off the speed and had his chance but was a bit on the plain side late in the piece. Blinkers on and back to 1200m, he could be an improver at odds.

8 Affirm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the straight bat play in an open contest. He ran over this track/distance three weeks ago and was good in defeat after sitting on speed, just failing to get the win when a narrow second to Storming Dragon. Good racing style and seems to have found a very winnable race.

3 Fatal Blow (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in two career outings for Mark Newnham and is one of the key chances. Both runs have come at this track/distance, placing on debut before a strong on speed win two weeks ago where he found under pressure to fend them off. Tricky draw, but presses forward and will only run well.

6 Happy Trio (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be an improver at odds. He hasn’t raced for five weeks since a track/distance run where he got off speed and was never a factor when down the track behind Giant Leap. Tinkering with the gear to try and sharpen him up, his best is good enough to be dangerous.

1 Northern Beast (Bet Now:  $SP.00) tends to save his best for Happy Valley so returning here, he’s the one they have to beat. He ran at Sha Tin last time over this trip and he was good in defeat I thought, getting back and working home quite strongly in defeat when fifth. Back to where he races best, Purton stays on, the one to beat.

2 Escape Route (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like a rise to 1800m will suit for John Size. He ran over the mile here two weeks ago where he got a fair way out of his ground and while he was never a winning threat, he worked home strongly in defeat behind Turin Warrior. J Mac sticks and with a much better gate, rates highly.

12 Kingly Demeanour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Tony Cruz and has earned a crack at this kind of race after two wins on the bounce, the latest being four weeks ago over 2200m when leading throughout and was too strong late. Back in trip is interesting but with a good racing style, he can roll and give a sight.

Straight bat here with 2 Sturdy Ruby (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He ran over this track/distance three weeks ago where he was one of the eye catchers of the meeting, closing off with real purpose from near last when third to Take Action. Maps to settle much closer and still be effective at the end. Rates highly for me.

8 Ninja Derby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) ran second to Take Action in the race mentioned above. He got into a good spot and presented to win but just couldn’t quite get there when beaten a lip. Maps ideally once again and Purton remains on. Hard to beat.

7 Good Luck Win (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run an improved race at odds. His recent runs have come at Sha Tin where each time he has been a bit on the plain side, though I will say the races he has contested have been far stronger than what he faces here, so back in depth, with the claim, he can run a cheeky race at a price.

I think 2 Sports Legend (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can resume a winner for Danny Shum. He is first up, having not raced since May 22 over this track/distance when doing work from the wide gate and just felt the pinch late in the piece. He resumes without a trial, but will press forward and gets J Mac on first up, which to me, signals intent.

3 Atomic Force (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing well at the moment without winning and should be around the mark. He ran two weeks ago at this track/distance when off the speed and worked home strongly when fourth to impressive winner Healthy Healthy. If he’s within range, he has the finale to be quite dangerous.

8 Midori Glory (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since Nov 17 when down the straight at Sha Tin when hard in the market but didn’t quite fire and was a bit on the plain side late in the piece. Tick over trial was good and is a track/distance winner.

1 Yee Cheong Spirit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top. Danny Shum trained son of War that comes here off the back of a maiden win three weeks ago at this track/distance, getting better as the race went on and was impressive in winning. His confidence is up, he can certainly go on with it.

2 Circuit Duffy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is four weeks between runs for Frankie Lor since a track/distance where he did no work from the inside gate. Just a matter of getting clear air and once he got it, away he went and he was impressive in the run to the line. Tricky draw, but has good upside/improvement.

3 California Deeply (Bet Now:  $SP.00) ran fourth to Circuit Duffy in the race mentioned above from four weeks back. He got a fair way out of his ground and while he was never a winning threat, he kept finding the line and was quite good in defeat I thought. If he can use the gate to advantage, he’s dangerous.

10 Ivy League (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the throw at the stumps for me for the meeting. He comes here six weeks between runs since racing over this track/distance when doing a bit wrong in the straight but he stayed on and was solid enough in defeat behind Daring Pursuit. Tick over trial was solid, good track/distance record and is one of the leading contenders.

1 Simply Maverick (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rates highly. He ran over this track/distance three weeks ago where he got a fair way out of his ground but worked home with purpose in a good effort in defeat behind Lovero. J Mac sticks and has a kind barrier this time around.

9 Setanta (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Fastnet Rock that resumes for Mark Newnham. He is first up, having not raced since October 9 when back and making up some headway without threatening behind I Can. He is a horse who does go well on the fresh side and his trial work has been quite good.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 2 Modest Gentleman

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 6 Telecom Dragon

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 10 Ivy League

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 8

Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 8

Leg Three: 1, 2

Leg Four: 1, 6, 7, 9, 10

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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