Lloyd Williams says Tanby, one of his two runners in Wednesday’s $200,000 Bendigo Cup, would have to win very convincingly to force his way into the Melbourne Cup.
Mt. Macedon-based Williams has won two Bendigo Cups with Gallic in 2004 and 2006, but Galileo five-year-old Tanby is 38th in the order of entry into next Tuesday’s $6 million 3200m feature which has a field limit of 24.
“He’d probably want to win by three or four lengths to get a kilo-and-a-half penalty,” he told Radio Sport National.
“I think that’s the only way to get him into the Cup at this stage.
“It’s pretty unlikely but if he can be a very convincing winner up there (Bendigo) the handicapper might give him a penalty.
“He’s got 50 kilos but he’d need at least 51.5 to have any chance of getting into the Cup.”
Tanby’s effort when runner-up to French stayer Dunaden in the Geelong Cup (2400m) last Wednesday pleased Williams.
“He’s been very honest, his run was good, Steven King gave him a great ride.
“But I’m not absolutely as convinced as everyone in the media about the Geelong Cup form.”
Williams said nine-year-old Bauer, who finished an unlucky third, probably should have won the Geelong Cup.
“Tanby is in good order. He hasn’t taken any harm from that run. Our other runner (At First Sight) has to give him four kilos and certainly the four kilos will even them up.”
At First Sight, 20th in the order of entry and safely in the Melbourne Cup field, is topweight with 58kg in the Bendigo Cup – five kilograms above the limit.
The Galileo five-year-old hasn’t raced since finishing runner-up to December Draw in the Group Three Naturalism Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield on September 17.
“We had a little setback with him with a virus. He had a high temperature and he’ll run very well,” Williams said.
“He’s in particularly good order, 58 kilos is a bit of a leveller, he’s got 52.5kg in the Cup.
“He ran second in the English Derby, (he’s a) nice horse.”
Meanwhile, Lamasery (32nd in the Melbourne Cup order of entry) will be examined on arrival on course after Warwick Farm trainer David Vandyke reported last week that the gelding had bruised a heel.
The winner of nine of his 16 starts including the Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) and the Colin Stephen Quality (2400m), both at Group Three level at Rosehill, Lamasery finished third in Group One The Metropolitan (2400m) at Randwick at his last start on October 1.
Eight of Monday’s 47 Melbourne Cup second declarations are engaged in the Listed Bendigo Cup (2400m), the others being the Luca Cumani-trained Sahara Sun (24th), Two For Tea (41st), Cosmonaut (44th), Back In Black (46th) and Western Symbol (47th).
At First Sight, to be ridden by Nick Hall, has been backed from $4.40 to $3.40 favouritism over stablemate Tanby, to be handled again by King, who has drifted from $3.30 to $4, with Lamasery at $5.50 and Cosmonaut at $11.
Last year’s winner Dream Pedlar is at $15.