This year sees the running of the 150th AJC Australian Derby.
Many greats have won this race in the past – the likes of The Barb, Grand Flaneur, Poseidon, Gloaming, Manfred, Phar Lap, Peter Pan, Tulloch, Dulcify, Kingston Town, Strawberry Road, Bonecrusher and Octagonal.
It is a bit disappointing that the field assembled for the 150th Derby is rather poor, but there are a couple of good horses in here.
Just Horse Racing writer Andrew Hawkins looks at the field for this year’s Derby.
1. Jimmy Choux
Dominant New Zealand colt who came over and won the main lead up, the Rosehill Guineas, in fine fettle. Showed a great turn of foot that day. He did win the New Zealand Derby over this trip. However, there needs to be some sort of stamina query because he isn’t bred to go 2400m and the horse he beat in the NZ Derby, Historian, is by Choisir – not a noted sire of stayers. Perhaps they just were better than the field? It was a bog that day, though, so it would have felt more like a 2800m race – and he was coming away at the end. I don’t think the NZ Derby field is much stronger than this field and I think he can come away and win again. Looks to be a similar pace scenario to the Rosehill Guineas, and if that is the case, then he should be too good again. Top chance.
2. Anacheeva
Caulfield Guineas winner who is a half brother to a former AJC Derby winner in Headturner. He has been very disappointing this autumn, there’s no other way to describe him. He does look like he is looking for 2400m, but on his current form how could you back him? Not for me.
3. Retrieve
Will lead here and will obviously improve on last week’s run in the Tulloch Stakes. If he hadn’t run in the Tulloch, he would be in everyone’s selections somewhere. But it was a poor run in the Tulloch, no other way of looking at it! There was quite a debate going on after the Rosehill Guineas about whether Retrieve had a tough run there – many were saying he was ridden upside down. That’s obviously not true, he needs to be up on the pace. For me, the sectionals show he had a pretty easy time of it in front in the Rosehill Guineas. He still ran out of his skin, but there’s no doubt Jimmy Choux was the better run. Can he make the margin up on Jimmy? I doubt it personally. Place chance.
4. Praecido
This dyed-in-the-wool stayer is fantastic value for a place. He has an appalling strike rate (1 win from 17 starts) but he has placed in the VRC Derby and has run some nice races elsewhere. He reminds me a bit of Littorio, who was consistently running on in these races. I think he’s looking for even further than 2400m but he should be an okay price the place. Needless to say, he’s a place chance – albeit a good place chance.
5. Masquerader
This colt looked like he could have been anything after a dominant Todman Stakes win last year. He’s mixed his form since then. He is going to be a big query at 2400m but I liked his run in the Rosehill Guineas. He hit the line rather well in the worst part of the track. With a bit of luck I can see him being in the finish. Chance.
6. Domesky
Poor run in the Rosehill Guineas and the form out of the Alister Clark Stakes has been woeful. I’m not sure he’ll run 2400m anyway. Happy to risk.
7. He’s Remarkable
Second Kiwi horse here. His run was fairly good in the Rosehill Guineas. He’s none from five against Jimmy Choux, but his runs over a distance (2000m, 2400m) against Jimmy Choux were plagued by wet tracks. He’s like another Pentire in Xcellent – both despise wet tracks. He’s going to get a pretty dry surface today, so I think today is D-Day for him. We’ll find out if he really is a horse to follow from a future viewpoint. Trainer Roger James has already earmarked this year’s Melbourne Cup as a long term target, so he has a chance to qualify today. I expect him to run really well, but I don’t know if he can beat Jimmy. Chance.
8. Light Brigade
Had the gun run in the Rosehill Guineas and just couldn’t sprint late. He is bred to get over a distance but maybe 1600m is his go? Today will provide the answer. Still looks like he is learning, I reckon he is still six months away at least. Once the penny drops he could be a real nice horse. That said, I find it hard to see him turning the tables on Jimmy Choux. Could run a place.
9. I Think I Do
That impeccable Cummings sense of timing comes to the fore here. Was going horrible until a really nice sweeping run in the Alister Clark and then hit the line well last week. I reckon he’s been looking for 2400m since his debut. He’s come good at the right time, and definitely looks one to follow. Chance.
10. Shadowofexcellence
A half brother to the great staying mare Makybe Diva, he has been disappointing at his last two runs. He still looks as though he is six months away. Will relish getting to 2400m, but I think this may have come too soon for him. Rough place chance.
11. High Density
If he wins, he’ll be the worst AJC Derby winner ever. Has not shown anything to suggest he can be competitive in this class. Entitled to be 500/1, should be 1000/1. Good luck to connections though, I hope they enjoy having a runner in one of Australia’s premier races.
12. King Gladiator
He has come from nowhere to stamp himself as a legitimate contender. However, the problem for me is that he is not winning these races. His fourth at Kensington and his fifth in the Tulloch Stakes were both good efforts because he hit the line well. But he’s not winning these races, and he might be one of these horses that habitually runs on. He’ll have no problem at 2400m though, so should include in multiples! Place chance.
13. Ducarius
Same comment as the 11.
14. Shamrocker
The sole filly in the field, but one of the best chances. Ran second to Brazilian Pulse in the VRC Oaks in the spring, and has come back lengths better. I daresay that’s a warning. Big win in the Australian Guineas before a flashing run in the Rosehill Guineas. 2400m suits now and she improved a heap from 2000m up to 2400m in the spring. Don’t know if she can make up the ground on Jimmy Choux but it wouldn’t surprise to see her win this and then go on to take the AJC Oaks. Big chance.
SUMMARY
I’ll be disappointed if JIMMY CHOUX doesn’t win. He’s been the benchmark three year old in New Zealand and he came here and won the Rosehill Guineas impressively. He should win on exposed form. If he wins impressively, I reckon there’ll be a new early Cox Plate favourite. PRAECIDO is the best place bet in the race. He’s screaming for 2400m and he ran a bottler behind Lion Tamer in the VRC Derby (quick side track – it’s disappointing Lion Tamer isn’t here…). He really should be running on well late. I reckon SHAMROCKER will produce a mammoth Oaks trial tomorrow. She’s proven at the trip and has been in much better form this autumn. Definite chance. Bart Cummings was overheard saying I THINK I DO will win the Derby. When the great man is confident, get on. Big run in the Tulloch last week, and although I’m not sure it is the formline I want to follow, he looks a promising stayer. Next best He’s Remarkable, then Masquerader.
Written by Andrew Hawkins
