Racing Victoria handicapper David Hegan said he would like to have waited an extra week before releasing the weights for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.
Hegan said ideally the final handicaps for the Cups would be released after Saturday’s racing in Melbourne and Sydney to ascertain how potential contenders are progressing through the Group 1 Underwood Stakes, the Group 3 MRC Foundation Cup at Caulfield and the Group 3 Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) at Randwick.
Weights for the Caulfield Cup, on October 19, and the Melbourne Cup at Flemington on November 2, were released on Tuesday with last year’s winner of double – Without A Fight – the topweight for both races with 58.5kg.
That weight is a rise of rise of 3kg on his Caulfield Cup winning weight and 2kg on top of his win in the Melbourne Cup after he was penalised 1kg for his Caulfield Cup victory.
It is almost 50 years since a horse has carried more than 58kg to win either Cup, which Hegan said would make for a difficult task for Without A Fight to go back-to-back in either race.
“The weight of history is against Without A Fight in doing this,” Hegan said.
“In over 50 years we have had 45 attempts in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups combined with 58.5kg for only one win, and that was Think Big when he went back-to-back in 1975.”
The Chris Waller-trained mare Via Sistina sits second on the weights for both races with 56kg while last year’s Melbourne Cup favourite Vauban has 55.5kg, a rise of 0.5kg, and will be this year’s Cup topweight should both Without A Fight and Via Sistina not start.
Fawkner Park will be Caulfield Cup topweight should the two at the top of the weights elect to bypass the race as Vauban is not entered at Caulfield.
Hegan said Via Sistina was the second highest internationally rated horse in the race as a three-time Group 1 winner and has competed against the best middle-distance horses in Europe.
Hegan said Vauban had 55kg and ran 14th in last year’s Cup and usually after a run like that you would see a decrease in weights the following year.
“His first three runs in Europe this year, whilst very good, weren’t running up to 55 (kg) where he was last year,” Hegan said.
“His last two runs however, in winning the Lonsdale Cup and then his great run (for second) in the Irish St Leger on Sunday sees him increase back in the ratings, back above one point where he was last year, effectively a half-kilo increase on last year.”
Hegan said Fawkner Park, an Irish-bred galloper in the care of Annabel Neasham, has undertaken a different approach to be near the head of the weights through winning the Albury and Wagga Cups before striking form in Brisbane during the winter.
One galloper that caused Hegan a headache is the Dermot Weld -trained Harbour Wind who has 53kg in the Melbourne Cup.
Weld is a two-time Cup winner for Ireland and will potentially be making his first trip to Flemington in 12 years.
“He’s a dual Listed winner and a last start Group 3 placegetter at Longchamp,” Hegan said of Harbour Wind.
“In his seven starts, he hasn’t finished outside of the top two. I can’t take him too far in the weights, but I suspect he has got a lot more to offer but has been weighted right up to his maximum.”
Hegan said he had taken a conservative approach with Warmonger, the 10-½ length winner of the Queensland Derby in the winter.
He said that was an extremely difficult race to measure because of the form and the margins of those that finished behind him are unknown.
“Usually with a 10.4 length margin like that, you would expect a horse to be higher in the weights,” Hegan said.
“We’ve taken a conservative approach, both with his weight and his international rating until we see that franked, but it was most pleasing to see him run solidly into fourth in the Makybe Diva Stakes at Flemington on Saturday.”
Coco Sun, who lowered the colours of Warmonger in the South Australian Derby in May, has 50.5kg.
Hegan said as guide South Australian Oaks winners usually come in on the minimum of 50kg, but with the performance and subsequent performance of Warmonger in Queensland, he pushed Coco Sun, a four-year-old mare, slightly higher in the weights.
