The Listed Belmont Guineas on Saturday sets up as another highly competitive contest with the first six finishers in the Listed Raconteur Stakes two weeks ago … who were only separated by a two length margin in that Listed race which was contested over 1400m … all getting ready to match motors once again, this time over 1600m.
The Stefan Vahala trained Vatican Storm carried the day on that occasion, lowering the colours of the previously unbeaten Hot And High by the narrowest of margins.
The Dion Luciani trained Hot And High came into the Raconteur having landed five wins from five starts and Vatican Storm was claiming his third career victory in his last four starts in the Raconteur … so, already we have a mouthwatering rematch in prospect between these two very much in-form runners.
But then consideration also has to be given to all of Lanfranco, Westbound, Peaceful Ruler and Summer Fling who finished bunched together in third to sixth place in the Raconteur.
There was a 1.50 length gap from Vatican Storm and Hot And High back to the third placed Lanfranco in the Raconteur, but there was only half-a-length between Lanfranco, Westbound, Peaceful Ruler and Summer Fling, any one of which could be on hand to stake their claim if Vatican Storm and Hot And High … who will again be ridden by Clint Johnston-Porter and Lucy Fiore respectively … should come up short of a repeat performance.
The betting market doesn’t expect that to be the case. In fact, it strongly suggests that Hot And High will resume her winning ways as the Too Darn Hot filly commands the betting as a clearcut $2.50 favourite according to leading Aussie betting sites … with the second favourite, Vatican Storm, all the way out at $6.50.
Two runners, not yet mentioned, are the only other runners quoted at odds of less than $10.
The Michael Grantham trained Like Clockwork … the stable companion to Westbound ($10) … is currently at $7.50 and the Grant and Alana Williams trained Ladies Pro is at $9 according to popular betting apps Australia.
Like Clockwork comes into the race on the back of two close-up third place finishes while Ladies Pro was a last start winner who has now won two out of her last three starts.
Of all of these runners Westbound is the only runner to have raced beyond 1400m … Saturday’s race distance is 1600m … and the Peters’ Investments owned gelding has done that on three occasions and has a win over both 1600m and 1800m to his credit … results that should be noted.
He and Ladies Pro have also won on soft going … the Belmont track is currently in the soft range … a racing surface on which both are unbeaten (Westbound is one from one and Ladies Pro is two from two). None of the other main contenders have won on soft going … Lanfranco and Hot And High, in fact, have yet to race on a surface worse than good going.
So, there you have it … The Belmont Guineas … a puzzle of many pieces with the only guarantee being that it is likely to, once again, be a very lively contest.
