Group 1 racing returns to Flemington this Saturday, with a cracking field assembled for the Turnbull Stakes (2000m).
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Turnbull Stakes.
Market 💰: View the Odds for Turnbull Stakes
2023 Turnbull Stakes Speed Map
There is no designated leader. Goldman would lead comfortably but being second emergency, he’s unlikely to get a run. Smokin Romans sat on speed when winning the race last year and I dare say he’ll lead with stablemate Right You Are not far away. If Spanish Mission is somewhere near his best, he can sit handy. Outside that, the rest want cover, with the potential exception being West Wind Blows, who can sit handy.
2023 Turnbull Stakes Runner Preview:
1. Romantic Warrior: Romantic Warrior is a world class animal from Hong Kong and it’s great to see him down under. He is the best Hong Kong has to offer and the good lead is that on multiple occasions, he has comfortably beat some high quality Japanese gallopers, which has always been a great measuring stick for Australian racing given how dominant the Japanese have been, especially during the Spring. From all reports, he will improve with the run, but you can’t substitute class, and he has it in spades.
2. Gold Trip: Gold Trip looks to be ticking along beautifully towards the Caulfield Cup. He resumed over this trip at The Valley and despite lumping 62kg, gee he was an eye catcher late when warming to the task behind Young Werther. Kept on ice with this race in mind and did start favourite in this race last year. I think he will only run well.
3. Smokin Romans: Won the race last year but fast forward 12 months, he looks like an absolute donkey. Pass. Not even Blinkers can save him.
4. Francesco Guardi: Ticking along beautifully. Race shape against him in the Makybe Diva but kept finding the line. He should have won the Bart Cummings on this day last year. He’s right on track for the Cups.
5. West Wind Blows: IMO, he is a risk if he went to the Caulfield Cup because the trip is a query for mine. If he’s going to win a good race, it’s either this or the Champion Stakes. Third in the Eclipse behind a world class horse in Paddington, but he isn’t exactly a line finder. But, the patient hands of Jamie Spencer are aboard and in the UK, he does ride big tracks better than just about most given how patient he is.
6. Emissary: Did enough in the Naturalism to say he’s on track. But not good enough to win this. Likely heads to the Geelong Cup or something similar.
7. Osipenko: IMO, he’s half of what he should be. Had every chance in the Memsie and was given every chance in a barrier trial in the Makybe Diva. His lone 2000m run/win was a barrier trial in the Frank Packer and IMO, I just don’t think he’s that good. He is one of those runners that has quality in the form compared to others, but I think being second favourite, he is too short.
8. Uncle Bryn: Following the path of Smokin Romans from last year when winning the Naturalism/Turnbull/Caulfield Cup. He’s got a couple of versions but his best…a win wouldn’t totally shock but I can’t back him.
9. Berkeley Square: Threatened to be top class but there is enough body of work to say he’s not up to this level. Deserving outsider.
10. Bank Maur: Aiming too high with him. Pass.
11. Soulcombe: Soulcombe will love getting back to Flemington. That said, he has been outstanding in two runs back, both at Caulfield. Latest came in the Underwood where he kept finding the line in a great effort behind a star, Alligator Blood. Hard fit, just about, getting to 2000m, Flemington, in form…all points to him running another positive race.
12. Duke De Sessa: He has the potential to be top class. But he must have had a setback this prep because he resumed in the Memsie and hasn’t been sighted since but has been nominated/accepted/scratched in multiple races since. The Memsie run was full of merit given the race shape was against him. I think he’ll love Flemington 2000m and a win wouldn’t entirely shock.
13. Spanish Mission: $301 is unders. He looks absolutely gone.
14. El Bodegon: He’d struggle to win at Taree. Has done nothing since the Cox Plate.
15. Right You Are: Ticking along beautifully towards the Caulfield Cup. Did more than enough in the Underwood and will love getting to 2000m. Drawn wide, but should slide forward and give plenty of cheek.
16. Lunar Flare: Loves Flemington, but already in the Melbourne Cup. Pass.
17. El Patroness (First Emergency): Ripping return in the Let’s Elope but straight to 2000m is a big ask.
18. Goldman (Second Emergency): Getting ready for the Melbourne Cup. He’s racing okay but not winning here.
2023 Turnbull Stakes $100 Betting Strategy:
Having a three bet strategy. $50 win Romantic, $30 place Gold Trip at $5 and $20 win West Wind Blows at $7.50.
Group 1 Strategy Outlay: $900
Group 1 Strategy Return: $910
