Melbourne Cup day 2022 Weather Forecast, Track Rating and Which Horses To Back

The Melbourne Cup is the race that stops the nation and the 2022 edition shapes up to be such an intriguing edition, with a key component being the weather and likely track conditions.

At the time of writing this article (8.30am), the track is a Soft5, which is a massive result, in a positive way, given most had anticipated the track being in the Heavy range.

The forecast has changed significantly since a few days ago. Few days ago, the forecast was for 10-15mm on race day, with a chance of hail. But now, there is roughly 50% chance of rain hitting the track, and if it does arrive, it’ll be around 5mm, and given the track is the best in Australia at handling rain, it won’t change too much from a Soft5.

So, with that, with an eye towards the Melbourne Cup, who does this advantage?

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If it stays at a Soft5. no worse than a Soft6, it advantages:

Duais
Montefilia
Numerian
Without A Fight
Camorra
Deauville Legend
Vow And Declare
Young Werther
Hoo Ya Mal
Serpentine
Daqiansweet Junior
Grand Promenade
Emissary
Tralee Rose
Interpretation

If it stays at a Soft5, no worse than a Soft6, it disadvantages:

Gold Trip
Knights Order
Stockman
Arapaho
Smokin Romans
High Emocean
Realm Of Flowers

But, if the rain does arrive and it hits hard, those horses mentioned above that are disadvantaged will then become advantaged.