The race that stops a nation is the Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington and with crowds back after Covid, it’s shaping up to be a much anticipated edition, where all eyes it seems are on overseas raider Deauville Legend, who dominates betting.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Melbourne Cup.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Melbourne Cup
2022 Melbourne Cup Speed Map
Gate 24 looks, on paper, awful for Knights Order, but given he has the Lloyd Williams pair of Point Nepean and Serpentine drawn inside, he’ll get the perfect cart across and you’d think leads, unless one of the other two decides to go nuts. Grand Promenade will likely use the inside gate to advantage. Hoo Ya Mal has been known to be handy when racing in the UK so I think Craig Williams be positive early and try to find cover.
2022 Melbourne Cup Runner Preview
1. Gold Trip: He was somewhat unlucky in the Cox Plate. I say somewhat because yes, he was held up, but he wasn’t exactly finding the line and going past good horse flesh. He was running past just fair horses. First horse in a long time to contest all three major races in one Spring, so credit to all concerned for that feat. The key to him is the weather. The forecast is for rain on Sunday and Monday, which would seriously help his cause. Top 10 chance minimum, Top 5 for sure if the rain does indeed come.
2. Duais: Plenty of people have dropped off her, thinking she hasn’t come up this time in. I think she is right on track. The Autumn, it was a case of being not sure what they had, but she then was luckless in the Chipping Norton, confirming the promise with an Australian Cup/Tancred double. This prep, her sole focus has been the Melbourne Cup. If the track is Soft 5/6 come jump time, I think she’s #1 seed for the locals.
3. Knights Order: He’s really turned his form around this year. He looked absolutely cast this time last year, beaten 26 lengths in the Cup last year. My rule with the Melbourne Cup is if you fail in the race once, you can’t come back and win it subsequent. He’s got the right racing style, he’ll give a great sight…but that rule I have has worked for me over the years so I’ll stick to it and let him go through to the keeper.
4. Montefilia: Jury was out after the Hill Stakes, but that run can be excused given it was a fast run race and she resumed in essentially a barrier trial prior. David Payne is a very good trainer of stayers and really, his stable has been firing in recent weeks/months. Been set for the race and a drop of rain would certainly enhance her claims. She’s right in the mix and can certainly win this.
5. Numerian: His only hope of figuring in the finish is riding him cold. I don’t think they can ride him positive and expect him to be strong at the end. He’s a good horse that is getting better with time. But I think 3200m is a bridge too far and I can’t see him being a serious threat.
6. Without A Fight: He’s heading in the right direction. He dodged the Ebor and instead ran at Newmarket when a solid second at Listed level. He’s been very well placed throughout his career. The Melbourne Cup is light on quality compared to recent years, but he will need to improve significantly IMO.
7. Camorra: $61+ was available for him a few months ago and I found that staggering given the form around him. Not many can say they were good in defeat behind Kyprios, and as seen in the replay, clearly should have run third. He’s a dead set dry tracker, so hopefully gets a firm deck for Cup Day and does have a solid Timeform rating. I think he’s one to be respected, provided the track is dry, because we saw in the Irish St Leger that wet ground at the top level is no good for him.
8. Deauville Legend: I am stunned he is Melbourne Cup favourite. Yes, he has the right profile of being the Northern Hemisphere 3YO, but we are awake to it now and not just giving them 51kg/thereabouts. He’s got 55kg, so he’s weighted on the assumption he’ll be too good. He might well be too good, but given he is under $4 in betting, he is way too short for a horse that you can find holes in.
9. Stockman: He’s been a ripper for Joe Pride for a few seasons and deserves his spot in the Cup Field given how consistent he has been at 2000m+ this year. He beat up nothing in the St Leger last time but that secured his spot. 3200m should be fine, and if he gets a drop of rain, it wouldn’t shock me at all if he ran top ten. Can he win? I’d be surprised.
10. Vow And Declare: I saw a video from Ladbrokes on a social media page where they did a special piece on Vow And Declare. Danny O’Brien said prior to the first up run that the horse has come back in super order. The first up run was solid but I still thought he was mad because the horse had done nothing since the 2019 Melbourne Cup. But really, he has come back in super order. If the rain doesn’t hit too hard, he has to be respected.
11. Young Werther: It’s Benaud 2.0 from the Caulfield Cup. He was touted as a contender, but his lone victory came in a Nowra maiden. Young Werther has been long touted as a good horse, but his lone victory has come in a Geelong maiden on debut back over two years ago. He’s not up to this level and should be a near rank outsider.
12. Hoo Ya Mal: Several months ago, I thought he was zero chance and just assumed the runner up finish in the Derby was a fluke given he was $151. But I think he’s going into this race as one of the leading contenders. That Gordon Stakes form line has been red hot, he won soon after and just couldn’t go with them in a pretty strong St Leger. He might be 6-12 months away, but I can’t let him go without having something on.
13. Serpentine: Lloyd Williams and his runners have been cast this Spring. Serpentine has been the first horse to show any sign of form for the camp. So from a timing sense, he’s on track to run well. But on overall form, I’d be stunned if he was able to lead throughout and win.
14. Daqiansweet Junior: Looked a really promising stayer in the Autumn, highlighted by the Adelaide Cup triumph and a third in the Sydney Cup. But he just hasn’t come up this time in and IMO isn’t going to trouble this lot.
15. Grand Promenade: 12 months ago, he was regarded as one of the main chances for the Melbourne Cup. This time in though, he has teased to do something positive. He had every chance at The Valley and was pretty ordinary given the run he got in transit. He’s not a threat.
16. Arapaho: He’s an interesting one. Been up forever it seems like but is holding his form well. How do you read his form though. As stated earlier, he has a win over Francesco Guardi, but last start beat home Sacramento, who was lapped by Francesco Guardi in the Moonee Valley Cup. The key though is the track. He needs rain, and a decent amount. Worse side of Soft6, into Soft7, top ten chance. Firmer track, he’ll struggle.
17. Emissary: The Geelong Cup has been a great form reference for the Melbourne Cup over the years, but I don’t think the 2022 Melbourne Cup will be a year where it comes to the fore. Lucky to finish first half of the field.
18. Lunar Flare
19. Smokin Romans: I think you can poke holes in his form. He beat off, IMO, somewhat of a pretender in Gold Trip in the Naturalism. He then was blessed deluxe in the Turnbull. Unlucky in the Caulfield Cup, but it’s not as if he was savaging the line. Expecting Jamie Kah to be more positive. Top ten chance at best. He won’t be a winning bet for me.
20. Tralee Rose: If she was trained by Maher/Eusatce, you’d almost be keen to have something on her. But Symon Wilde isn’t a fashionable trainer when it comes to set ups like this. But she is the one with the most upside and likes Flemington. I’d say she’s a top ten chance, but couldn’t back her to win.
21. Point Nepean:
22. High Emocean: Overall form…you’d have to say no, but that can be said about plenty of these, and she is a last start winner, a tough winner. She handles wet ground, she’s down in the weights, she’s in form, she’s in the best 24000m+ camp in Australia…top ten prospect.
23. Interpretation: He’s been the spruik horse from connections for the Cup for several months. As a whole, he has been a major disappointment after presenting to be a good horse. Blinkers back on, right down in the weights, he’s a stayer…it’s hard to pen a horse from this stable at this sort of trip, but I am.
24. Realm Of Flowers: She needs wet ground, and it looks like she will get it come Tuesday. The form out of The Metropolitan was confirmed via Durston and she beat that horse home despite doing all the work. I don’t think she’s good enough to win, but if there is a top ten market, I’d be backing her with confidence because some of these will be hopeless on the ground, whereas she won’t be.
2022 Melbourne Cup $100 Betting Strategy:
Going to have a $100 Boxed First Four for 5.95% with the numbers 1-2-3-4-8-9-12-24.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $2350
Group l Strategy Return: $1613.50
