Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Wednesday’s (31/7/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5pm Tuesday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $51965
Betting Strategy Return: $53661
Futures Outlay: $2665
Futures Return: $2391
NOTE: As this is the last day of the racing season, this will be the last Betting Strategy under $ format. From August 1 onwards, it will be in unit form.
Warwick Farm
$5 Win/$25 Place Nombuso R1 (Tote)
$40 Win Rancho Notorious R2 @ $3.1 (TAB)
$30 Quaddie = 18.75% (2-3-6-7-10/1-2-3-6/1-7/4-5-6-10)
Warwick Farm Overview:
The opener looks a tricky and keep in mind several are nominated/accepted elsewhere. That aside, I think Nombuso is worth something on each way. He debuted over 1200m at the track in a race where those on speed dominated, he was out the back and off the bit, but he picked up late and was really good to the line and through it, clocking the third fastest final 200m of the race, suggesting the extra trip will suit. Did a bit wrong on debut so hopefully he improves and if he can sit closer in the run, he’ll be dangerous. Well done if you got a slice of the $10 Bet365 put up for Rancho Notorious (not me). That was ridiculous. If he’s right, he’s an odds on pop. Jason Coyle trains this three year old, who has been gelded since last racing, which saw him down the track in the Hobartville behind The Autumn Sun, the best three year old colt of his generation. Compare that to suspect provincial form…if he’s ready, which the trials say he just about is, he’s realistically a $1.70-$1.80 chance against these.
Sale
$100 Win Chasing Returns R4 @ $4.5 (Sportsbet)
Sale Overview:
I think Oneira has had numerous chances to break the maiden, so IMO she’s a false fav. Want to go with the former kiwi Chasing Returns, who made his Australian debut for the Gelagotis team over 1200m at Geelong where he got a mile back before being presented widest on the turn and he surged despite wanting to race greenly and was just beaten, but clearly if he runs straight, he wins. Tongue Tie goes on, love him up to 1400m, and draws out, so he’ll get clear air from the outset. Think $4.50 is more than acceptable.
Sunshine Coast
$100 Win Multi @ $12 (TAB)
Fisticuffs R3 ($2)
See The Master R6 ($6)
Sunshine Coast Overview: Looks a good thing does Fisticuffs on the proviso that the track isn’t too wet. Is forecast for rain to hit Tuesday night and Wednesday. Formerly with Brad Widdup, now with Toby Edmonds, and he was a standout at the Gold Coast trials last week, running the quickest time of the morning under a hold. Runs up to that, he wins. Gee I think there is value in See The Master. Chris Waller trains and he is first up. Fresh record says no, but first up last prep at Canterbury, he should have won but just had no luck in the straight. Looked to move well in a trial last week behind Blue Comet, who was good on Saturday, and a rain affected track would be no issue.
Morphettville Parks
$100 Win Sir Johnson R3 @ $3.3 (TAB)
Morphettville Parks Overview:
Market looks to have this right as a race in two between this bloke and Yankee Lou. I suspect the money will be for Yankee Lou given he has the proper Saturday metro form but in a two horse race, I think Sir Johnson is really well placed. Found the line well first up at Gawler before going to this track/distance on July 10 and it was just an awful watch if you were on. He was in the right spot, but just couldn’t get clear and was lucky to stay on his feet when cut out of a run. Does no work from the inside gate and he does seem a quirky horse, so I think drawing inside with the rail to guide him will help. Nothing against Yankee Lou, likely a deserving fav. Just from a SP profile perspective, $20+ last start and now you’re being asked to take near $2.50 for a horse who likely doesn’t have as much upside as Sir Johnson (7th up v 3rd up).
