Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Monday’s (14/1/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 6pm Sunday.
Outlay: $3000
Return: $3307
Nowra
$80 Win Don’t Doubt Arthur R1 @ $1.85 (BetEasy)
$20 Win Starchild R7 @ $6 (BetEasy)
Nowra Overview:
Don’t Doubt Arthur is an absolute moral IMO. I just can’t get her and Bad Boy For Love so close in the market. Don’t Doubt Arthur has just the superior form. Chased a good one in Lancaster Bomber first up on Magic Millions Day at Wyong before racing on the Kensington track at Randwick where the track was too firm for her I think behind Wonderbabe. Being by Not A Single Doubt, she should lap up the wet surface and the significant drop in depth. Runs up to anywhere near her best and she should win as a $1.20-$1.30 chance. Bad Boy For Love, IMO, was flattered by a 12/10 steer to win first up at Hawkesbury before going to Kembla where he was average in an average race but did pull hard and was wide. They won’t go quick here so he’ll need to improve his manners to warrant taking $2.60/thereabouts. The other horse I’m keen to back is Starchild in the seventh. Just found them a bit nippy first up over 1100m here before stepping up 100m in distance where she led all the way and bolted in. Anne’s Gift should hold a spot early nearer the inside and Brimstone should carve over out wide, so I’m hoping Winona can land box seat or 1/1 off a likely genuine tempo and pounce.
Taree
$20 Win Port Gold R1 @ $5.5 (Sportsbet)
$20 Win Charlie’s Law R3 @ $5 (BetEasy)
$40 Win Diamond Deluxe R5 (Tote)
$10 E/W Dia Vernon @ $16/$4.6 (BetEasy)
Taree Overview:
Been very hot/humid weather this part of the world recently, so I’m working on a track where they’ll run good time and backmarkers will need to produce something pretty damn good to win. The race looks perfectly set up for Port Gold in the first. Put together three on the bounce here before a tiring fifth to Bancroft last start. Market said he was legless and ran accordingly. I think $5.5/thereabouts is a fair enough price to see what’s in the tank. Charlie’s Law has an awful racing pattern but he’s got the finale of a nice horse and just needs the breaks to go his way. Draws inside so hopefully can settle a touch closer in the run. Really keen on Diamond Deluxe to potentially lead all the way in the fifth, but I anticipate they’ll come for the Ross Stitt runner El Casco given there’s an 8.5kg weight difference, so I’d take the tote. In the last, I reckon the value runner across the two meetings is clearly Dia Vernon. I reckon Todd Howlett has him ticking over nicely and the run at Scone wasn’t too bad under the circumstances. Another with a poor racing pattern, but 1300m first time, should hopefully do no work from the gate and Exdream should ensure a good speed. He’s worth a throw at the stumps at the odds.
