The first Group l of the Adelaide Carnival comes around this Saturday at Morphettville in the Australasian Oaks (2000m) where Victorian fillies dominate betting.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Australasian Oaks.
2023 Australasian Oaks Speed Map
Speed map will be interesting here. Several key chances are drawn wide, notably WA raider She’s Fit, who has been forwardly placed in her WA prep so you’d think she goes forward. Running On Time will be handy, like she was in the Port Adelaide Guineas. Does Jennilala hold a forward spot from a good draw? And As Time Goes By can potentially roll the dice by sitting on speed.
2023 Australasian Oaks Runner Preview:
1. She’s Fit: She’s Fit has to be respected. WA Oaks winner for Dan Morton that comes through the WA Derby where they tried her at 2400m and she just found the trip a bridge too far behind Awesome John but was as brave as ever to run third. Fresh legs and back to 2000m I do like for her and the stable have found C Williams to steer so she has a bit going for her to say she can run well here.
2. Arts: Arts is hard to beat if there is petrol left in the tank. She was a dominant winner of the Adrian Knox before backing up a week later in the ATC Oaks where she loomed to win but found the 2400m a bridge too far behind Pennyweka. Like her back to 2000m and off the Adrian Knox win, that is certainly good enough to take this out.
3. Jennilala: Has the Maher/Eustace polish and commands respect off her strong win in the Auraria, and the win had plenty of merit to it given she was 1300m to 1800m, so you’d think she has improvement to come, she maps to get a sweet run in transit…definite winning chance.
4. As Time Goes By: She has been kept on ice with this race in mind. Loved the ticker she showed to win the Clare Lindop. The query is the form out of that hasn’t stood up, but she is a filly who should appreciate getting to 2000m and can settle forward to potentially negate the wide draw.
5. Amati: She ran over the mile at Sandown last time in a strong 3YO race and the way the track played, she was no hope, and adding to that, she got badly held up at a vital stage early on in the straight, so forget she went around behind Gringotts. 2000m is the query, but she races like she will find it, her jumpout last week was sharp and has the Waller/Dee combo.
6. Affaire A Suivre: Progressive and heading in the right direction is this filly. Took on the boys in the Port Adelaide Guineas and she made a mess of them, getting stronger as the race went on. The gate makes things tricky for her, but she’ll be strong at the end of 2000m and you’d think J Allen had a choice of several rides in this race. He sticks with this girl.
7. Running On Time: Not penning her. Far from disgraced in the Alister Clark before going to the Port Adelaide Guineas where she was near the speed throughout and stuck on well, albeit no match late for the stablemate. She has the 2000m run under the belt, and a good racing style. A win wouldn’t shock.
8. More Reward: She is a talented local but just not sure she has the quality to beat some of these. Think she is more of an SA Fillies Classic filly, where she’ll appreciate 2500m and a drop in grade.
9. Killiako: Big, big win from her over the mile two weeks ago. Sustained run out wide and just kept finding the line to win. How much petrol is left in the tank? Not sure, but with upside, a kind map…first four threat.
10. Arugamama: Did a good job last time from off the speed in the Auraria when a narrow second to Jennilala. The query is 2000m, especially from the draw, but she is genuine and is one to include for multiples.
11. Party Princess: Closed off with real purpose in the Clare Lindop and just missed out on the win when a narrow second to As Time Goes By. As said earlier, is that form any good? As of right now, no, it’s not, but the way this girl finds the line, 2000m is fine and is a knockout hope.
12. Proscenium March: If there is a sleeper at a price, it is her. Took on the Mares at Sandown last time and was warming to the task very late in the piece behind Unusual Culture, producing some of the best late splits of the meeting. Bred to eat up 2000m, stable won the race last year…must for exotics.
13. Anphina: Honest filly but she’s not good enough to beat these.
14. Whakamana: Nice type that has talent and will win races…but not here.
15. Starianne: She’s racing in pretty good form but isn’t up to this level.
16.Moya Lass: Truly run 2000m, she’s in the mix. Dominant maiden win over the trip last time at Ballarat and the form out of it has been quite strong. Whether she wants further, not sure, but will be stronger than most late and a win wouldn’t shock.
17. Rich Result (First Emergency): Deserved rank outsider. Won’t trouble these.
18. Whispering Lady (Second Emergency): Heading in the right direction this filly and will stay the trip fine. Just don’t think she has the quality.
19. Ravin (Third Emergency): Ravin has got 2000m+ written all over her and has the talent to measure up. Blinkers went on in the Auraria two weeks back over 1800m here and was very good from the back without threatening behind Jennilala. Love that she gets to 2000m and if she is able to settle closer in the run, I think she will be very dangerous and is a definite winning chance should she get a run.
2023 Australasian Oaks $100 Betting Strategy:
$100 Boxed First Four = 5.95% with numbers 1-2-3-5-6-11-12-16.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $6350
Group l Strategy Return: $3809.50
