31/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Gold Carat day

1 Croatian Belle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is 1/1 to start her career and confident she can repeat the dose. She was kept very safe in betting when debuting here and she never looked getting beat from a fair way out, gliding around the track under J Kah and she won with a bit in hand. Don’t think there is a great deal of depth to this line up so I am happy to be in her corner here, and with a level of confidence.

2 Corniche (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a well bred colt for James Cummings that is on debut. He’s by Fastnet Rock out of a former solid mare in Montsegur. His jumpout work has been pretty good to my eye and this stable are just starting to fire with their juveniles, and won the 2YO race here last Saturday, so I’d watch the market with this guy and see what it does with him.

4 Mansiere (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Brave Smasg for Nick Ryan that is having start one. He comes here off the back of a couple of Flemington jumpouts, winning his latest just over two weeks ago and seemingly moved well to my eye when winning in solid enough time. Draws soft and gets M Zahra to steer so he has a bit in his corner to run a positive race fresh.

8 Vermentino (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one out of the box I think. Maher/Eustace trained son of Extreme Choice that is 3/3 to start his career. His two runs/wins this time in have come at Sandown and he has been arrogant the way he has been putting them away with such ease, running solid time in the process. Good test here to see what level he can reach, but it is all upside with him. Happy to be in his corner.

9 Dance To Dubai (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and run well I am sure. She ran down the straight at Flemington last time out when near the front of the pack and showed good fight in the straight, only getting run down late by stablemate Invincible Caviar. 1/1 at the track/distance and right down in the weights, she should lead and give a sight. Whether she can beat Vermentino is another matter.

3 Crestani (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for Pat Carey, having not raced since Ballarat Cup Day where he found the track too testing and struggled in the conditions behind Mnementh. He’s a dry track horse who races well on the fresh side and gets Craig Williams to steer so he has a bit in his corner to run a much improved race.

8 Look Sharpish (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a stayer that will be strong to the line and for mine, is hard to beat here. She ran over this track/distance just over two weeks ago and worked to the line strongly, but was no match late for Eaton, who was given a 12/10 by Willow and no doubt the ride won the race. 3000m should be fine and in what is usually survival of the fittest, she’ll be right in the mix in that regard.

2 Platinum Spirit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves another chance. Last couple of runs have come here, bolting up two back over 2500m before going to 3000m where 600m out he looked the winner but he ran out of steam and tired late behind Eaton. I am thinking he needed the run under the belt to toughen him up for this race and off the win two back, that is good enough to take this out.

4 Eaton (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a real liking for The Valley and should prove hard to beat once again. The ride from Williams last time was 12/10, saving all the ground nearer the inside and he was dominant late, winning by over five lengths. He was teasing and working up to a win, which came last time, and he is a horse that once he finds form, he generally holds it.

3 Matron Bullwinkel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks quite clearly the one they have to beat. Four weeks between runs since racing on Pakenham Cup Day over this trip where she was near a genuine speed and tried her guts out but was only run down late by an in form mare, Flash Feeling. The depth there was far stronger than what she faces here and with luck from the gate, I think she has a bit on this lot.

5 Blushing Tycoon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suited back up to 2000m. Game second two back over the trip here before going to the 1800m at Flemington where he was good late from off the speed behind Hasseltoff in a race which had depth to it. Like him back up to 2040m and the depth here, as a whole, doesn’t appear overly strong, so he’s one of the hardest to beat for mine.

2 Jayrod Too (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will put himself on speed and give plenty. He has done that in his past two runs, both at Sandown. Led and toughed it out strongly to win two back at the midweeks before going there a few weeks ago when leading and showing good fight but was no match late for Never Again, finishing second. If this track is playing up/in, with his racing style, he’s going to take running down.

On top is 4 Threeandfourpence (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Cliff Brown. He didn’t do a bad job when last in work but for the most part, he found wet tracks, and clearly he is a horse who is much better suited on top of the ground, which is what he should get here. Stable finds Willow to steer and he did appear to work well on the track last week in readiness for this. Three jumpouts, he’s ready to go.

1 Real Sensation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with relatively fresh legs and is quite dangerous here I think. He hasn’t raced since November 18 at this track/distance when getting back from the inside gate and found the line really well late behind Savannah Cloud, one of the more in form gallopers in Melbourne. The depth here is nowhere near as strong and if he’s within range on the turn, he’ll take holding out.

7 High Done (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited back to the mile. Last couple of runs have come over the 2040m here, the latest when on speed and tiring late behind Diplomac Jack. He’s a much better miler and prior form was good enough to be more than competitive here, especially with his racing style. Don’t entirely pen him.

8 Beltoro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bursting to win a race this time in for Robert Hickmott. Good from the back two starts ago at Pakenham behind Arran Bay before going to the mile at Flemington where the sit/sprint didn’t suit him at all but despite that he ran a very credible race when fourth to Pounding. Tempo should be more genuine this time around and he has to rate quite highly here.

6 Riot And Rose (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Did more than enough fresh at Ballarat behind Green Fly before going to Sandown and she was very good late from the back behind Savannah Cloud, who has won again since, so the form reads super, and this stable with horses hard in the market in town, they have to be respected.

3 Morrissy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is sneaky flying for Simon Ryan I feel. Didn’t do a bad job two back at Sandown behind Savannah Cloud before going a week later to Flemington and was good to the line when close up behind Nicolini Vito. He does race best when on speed and rolling, which is what I was hoping for last time. If that can eventuate here, I think he’ll take beating.

12 Chester Warrior (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for Team Hayes. He resumed over 1000m here where they walked in front and with that, he got quite keen in run, which took away something from his finale when third to Devil’s Fiddle, who had control in front and was too good. Like him up to 1200m and the tempo will be more than genuine this time around, so he’ll get his chance.

2 Ice Pick Nick (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves another chance. Maher/Eustace trained four year old that resumed several weeks ago at Ballarat where I thought he’d be extremely hard to beat but with the raceday rain, the track ended up shifty and that didn’t suit him at all, so I am forgiving of that effort. He has good enough form from last prep and credits in the bank to get another chance.

4 Diesel N Dust (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has run well at The Valley previously and overall, this isn’t a strong race. Ran over 1200m at Sandown last time and battled late after getting a suck run, finishing down the track behind a very promising animal, Vermentino, who would be $1.50 against these, so the form reads well, he gets in nicely after the claim…he’s in with a shout at a price.

8 She Dances (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly that is flying this time in for Peter Moody and no reason why she can’t win again. Strong on speed win fresh at Cranbourne before taking on stablemate River Noire at Flemington and was there to be beaten but she found when required and was quite strong late to the line. The depth here is similar to that from two weeks and with that in mind, I’m in her corner.

4 Fasuto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here off a Kyneton maiden win so in that regard, I think he is a tad short in betting, but he is promising for Clinton McDonald. He didn’t appear to be too comfortable around that track but once he balanced up, he gapped them and was impressive. Should lob into a lovely spot from the good draw and has a stack of upside.

9 Hollerlujah (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will be spotting them a start but if they can run on from the back, a win wouldn’t entirely shock with her. She ran in the Red Card race from a few weeks back at Pakenham where she was back in a race dominated by those on speed, so she actually didn’t do a bad job in defeat I thought. Looks like there will be good speed here, so she should get her chance to launch provided the track is fair.

5 Starlight Scope (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Pat Carey trained mare that is knocking on the door to win. She was kept safe at odds when resuming three weeks ago at Sandown over 1000m and I thought she found the line strongly from the back behind impressive winner Sigh. She is much better suited up to 1200m compared to 1000m, and while 1400m is her sweet spot, the return was too good to ignore.

2 Quraysha (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. She has been kept on ice since a dominant win at this track/distance where she produced an electric finale from off the speed to win impressively and ran fast time in doing so. I’d say she has been freshened up in search of blacktype, potentially heading to Tassie? Not sure, but she does look blacktype. Just needs luck from a sticky gate.

4 Throntari (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is working up to a win. Griffiths/De Kock trained mare that ran down the straight a fortnight back and took a while into her work but was good late in the piece when a close up fourth to For Real Life. I think 1200m will be ideal for her, as well getting to a bigger track, and at her best, she’s certainly good enough to take this out.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Matron Bullwinkel

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 8 Vermentino

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 4 Threeandfourpence

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 6, 8

Leg Two: 2, 4, 12, 14

Leg Three: 3, 4, 8, 9

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 11

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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