The Winter Carnival officially kicks off in Brisbane with the running of the Group 1 BTC Cup. Last year’s winner returns in Sea Siren ($5) but the market is dominated by local hero Buffering ($2.70) who looking to register his maiden Group 1 win.
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1. BUFFERING – D Browne (7)
Returned in good style and signalled that he was ready for yet another attempt to break through at the elite level (has been placed in G1’s seven times) with a strong 3 ¼ length win in the G2 Victory Stakes over Spirit of Boom, a fortnight ago. Never runs a bad race – especially in his home state, but may have to do a little work early from the wide gate, given Rain Affair will be keen to also lead.
Odds: $2.70
2. RAIN AFFAIR – J Bowman (2)
Has had three runs back from a spell commencing with a fourth to Pierro in the Canterbury Stakes and has continued to improve in both the G1 TJ Smith (fourth to Black Caviar) and the All Aged Stakes when a head second to All Too Hard. He has drawn perfectly here in two as he’ll likely lead or sit second. Would think that the Doomben circuit will be to his liking and with three runs under his belt, is fit enough to ensure that they run this along.
Odds: $5.00
3. TEMPLE OF BOOM – G Colless (9)
Has run one placing from nine starts since winning the G1 The Galaxy last year in April. The rising 7yo trained by Tony Gollan has had three runs back from a spell but failed to worry the winner in any of these races. He found them too slick in the G2 Victory Stakes at his most recent start and ran last, beaten close to seven lengths. He has too much ground to make up on that run to be winning here.
Odds: $51.00
4. SPIRIT OF BOOM – M Cahill (11)
His last win was in January last year on Magic Millions day on the Gold Coast and even though he has registered some impressive performance since, including a third behind Mrs. Onasis when first up this prep in the G1 Oakleigh Plate earlier this year, he is finding it hard to break through. Camped behind a hot speed last start in the G2 Victory Stakes and despite trying valiantly, was no match for Buffering and finished second, 3 ¼ lengths away. Tipping he will not be able to get a smooth run here from widest gate.
Odds: $26.00
5. RAREFIED – M Rodd (6)
Returned from a 15 month lay-off with a pleasing effort in the G3 Sebring Stakes where he finished fourth behind Hot Snitzel. Took benefit from that run and, after a having a lovely run in transit, proved to good for stable-mate Skytrain in the Listed Hall Mark Stakes. Going well – yes, but this is a new level again and looking to others.
Odds: $17.00
6. JETSET LAD – (10)
A New Zealand galloper that placed in the Listed Eye Liner, Tatt’s Mile and Glasshouse Handicaps when visiting Qld last year. Since then, he’s had eight runs back in NZ with the pick of them coming six starts ago when he ran second in the G1 Railway Stakes behind Fluer De Lune. His most recent start was his first in nine weeks and saw him run a head second in Open company at Hastings. On that effort, can’t include him here.
Odds: $51.00
7. BETTER THAN READY – R McMahon (8)
A promising 3yo trained by Kelly Schweida who has won six of his ten starts and two of his last three including the Listed Mick Dittman Plate (1000m). His only crack at this level was back in March and resulted in a honest fifth placing (beaten 4.7 lengths) behind Shamexpress in the G1 Newmarket Handicap, where he was allocated 50.5kgs He was a $5.00 chance on that occasion and is at a similar price in early markets but jumps to 57kgs.
Odds: $6.00
8. YOUR SONG – P Robl (5)
This Fastnet Rock colt hasn’t been seen at the races since running third in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes back in October of last year. Trainer Anthony Cummings has prepared him with three barrier trails the latest of which was a very strong hit-out that resulted in a seven length win at Randwick last Friday. Ambitious attempt to win a race of this calibre first up but has been kept relatively safe in the market at $10.00.
Odds: $13.00
9. REFLECTANCE – T Bell (1)
Well bred son of Redoute’s Choice (half to Casino Prince, Tagus) who has shown promise in his seven starts to date that have seen him visit the winner’s stall on three occasions. We haven’t seen him since he finished midfield behind Sizzling in the Listed Gold Edition (1200m) last December. Trainer John Thompson has given him two barrier trial in readiness for his return, the most recent on the 23rd April when second to Platinum State.
Odds: $81.00
10. SEA SIREN – J Cassidy (3)
Winner of this race last year who has only had the two starts since finishing out of the placings in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint at Sha Tin last December.
The first of those runs was a poor effort behind Bel Sprinter in the G1 The Galaxy and she was better, albeit slightly when fifth in the G1 TJ Smith behind Black Caviar (beaten 6.1 lengths). Won a barrier trial at Warwick Farm on the 26th April and drawn to get a sweet run here but not rushing in to take the $5.00 just yet.
Odds: $5.00
11. EMMALENE – C Munce (4)
4yo mare from Liam Birchley’s yard who was very well backed when taken to Sydney in an attempt to win the G2 Sapphire Stakes. She had no luck whatsoever in the run home and finished last behind Arinosa. She had much better luck in running at her next and most recent start in the Juanmo Stakes but in a blanket finish, was headed out of the win by Black Magic. Step up to this class should be too steep.
Odds: $26.00
OVERVIEW
Rain Affair leads and has Buffering sitting on his outside with Sea Siren and Your Song handy. Think Rain Affair’s last effort was full of merit and there’s a lot to like about him here. The draw, the circuit, his fitness levels – when markets opened, I didn’t expect to see the significant difference between he and Buffering – the two top picks for mine, as wide as it was. Sea Siren, Your Song to round out the placing.
