It’s been a fantastic Melbourne Cup Carnival and it will all come to a close on Saturday with Emirates Stakes Day aka Family Day for patrons. The $1 Million Emirates Stakes (1600m) has attracted a classy field with kiwi superstar Jimmy Choux the early punters pick. But the main highlight of the day, and possibly the carnival, will be the return to Flemington of our darling Black Caviar in the Patinack Farm Classic (1200m).
Race One: Hong Kong J.C. Maribyrnong Plate 1000m
Back Me: Dormello trialled well for Waterhouse at Cranbourne recently and being trained at Flemington will help immensely.
Don’t Back Me: Rappers Delight is very short in betting. $5.50 is unders for him and I think he’ll find a few of these too slick.
Big Danger: Jimando just oozed class when winning at Caulfield and can certainly go on with it here.
Roughie: Any of the three Patinack gallopers can figure in the finish and look to be good value.
Race Two: Visit Victoria Handicap (95) 1600m
Back Me: A very good e/w bet in Gold Salute. Made up a stack of ground in the Seymour Cup and the bias was against him. Expect a big run here.
Don’t Back Me: Shenzou Steeds was very good when resuming at Seymour, but I’m thinking he might need this run as well against a very good field.
Big Danger: He’s Remarkable looked all at sea at Moonee Valley but still found the line nicely. A serious threat with a clear run.
Roughie: One more stride and Chasm wins the Emirates last year. If he brought his best form here, he is a big chance.
Race Three: Antler Luggage Handicap (95) 2000m
Back Me: Good thing here in The Chevron. Immediate black booker after his first up run at Geelong and the quick rise to 2000m is right up his alley.
Don’t Back Me: Chartreux hasn’t done much this prep yet is second favourite. Steer clear of him.
Big Danger: Count Encosta has made up very good ground in both runs this prep and the bigger track and rise in distance suits him perfectly.
Roughie: Sassy Bay is racing in great heart of late and is racing like the added journey will suit her.
Race Four: Hilton Hotels Stakes 1400m
Back Me: Toned has looked like a star in all three runs this prep and is ready for the step up in grade.
Don’t Back Me: From the barrier, I don’t think Mental is a betting prospect. Thought his win last start was just fair given he had the charmed run.
Big Danger: Sabres ran the 1400m right out at Geelong and from the barrier he’ll get the soft run again and have every chance to run the distance out.
Roughie: Sylvan Power was one of the picks in the yard before he ran at Caulfield and ran a super placing behind Halle Rocks. Drawn nicely and can figure again.
Race Five: Patinack Farm Classic 1200m
Back Me: Black Caviar. Moving on.
Don’t Back Me: Buffering was poor at Caulfield and it’s hard to entertain him.
Big Danger: Mid Summer Music nearly should have won the Sallinger on Saturday and can finish second here.
Roughie: Scenic Blast was ok when resuming from a long spell and will improve here.
Race Six: Emirates Stakes 1600m
Back Me: If Jimmy Choux has four legs and is healthy, he’ll be beating these. Classy animal who has sizzled in trackwork at Flemington recently.
Don’t Back Me: King’s Rose was most unlucky in the Cox Plate, but she’ll have her work cut out from the horror barrier.
Big Danger: Tossing up between Secret Admirer and Toorak Toff. Both horses were excellent in their last start defeats and both can feature here.
Roughie: Just wouldn’t be surprised if Yosei produced something nice at big odds here. Her run in the Toorak was sound enough to be considered a rough hope.
Race Seven: Matriarch Stakes 2000m
Back Me: Sean Baile Mor has been awesome in all three runs this time in and the $26 on offer is very tempting for a mare who can reel off fast closing sectionals.
Don’t Back Me: Platinum Passion seemed to have a comfy lead last start but just didn’t quite shake them off like she did the start before. Happy to pass.
Big Danger: Skyerush was most unlucky in the Myer on Saturday and the 2000m will see her at her best.
Roughie: Our Elle Belle caught the eye at Moonee Valley and gets a firmer track plus added distance.
Race Eight: Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2600m
Back Me: Take the best price you can for Bauer. He just looks the winner here if he produces his Geelong Cup run here.
Don’t Back Me: Macedonian is crying out to win a race, but I don’t think it is here. Maybe wait for the next week if he backs up there.
Big Danger: Boom ‘N’ Zoom was gallant behind Tanby at Bendigo and he’ll get the cheap run from the barrier and prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Paddy O’Reilly didn’t seem comfy near the fence at Moonee Valley behind Americain and he can figure here with Nash on top.
Race Nine: Emirates Airlines Handicap 1400m
Back Me: A weak race to end the carnival but I am going with Amaethon. She was good behind Woorim last Satruday and will love the drop in grade.
Don’t Back Me: Stirling Grove was ok last Saturday but gee he is short in the betting. Looks a risky bet from the barrier.
Big Danger: It hasn’t been the best carnival for Mick Price, but he has a very good chance here in Spirited Eagle. Tries his guts out every time and will do the same here.
Roughie: Don’t be surprised if Down Under Boy ran a cheeky race at odds. Has won first up before and this isn’t very strong.
Written by Adam Page
| Bookmaker | Why Bet | Sign Up | Full Review |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Back Yourself with Ladbrokes! | Join | Review |
|
Back a Winner with Neds! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to Palmerbet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to Dabble and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to MyBet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
