When it comes to predicting the Melbourne Cup winner, it’s hard to go past the Geelong Cup.
Where previously the Geelong Cup-Melbourne Cup double had been an impossible dream, the Europeans have for the third time in 10 years have made it look easy.
Dunaden returning to scale - photo by Race Horse Photos Australia
French stayer Dunaden emulated the achievement of his compatriot Americain a year ago while Irish-trained Media Puzzle (2002) was the trailblazer as the first Geelong Cup-Melbourne Cup winner.
English stayer Bauer also won the Geelong Cup and was beaten a nose by Viewed in the 2008 Melbourne Cup.
The only time the Europeans missed winning the Geelong Cup in five years of competing in the last decade came when Godolphin’s Crime Scene improved from a sixth to finish second in the 2009 Melbourne Cup.
Racing Victoria handicapper Greg Carpenter has no doubt the Geelong Cup will be a bigger focus than ever for the Europeans.
“The Geelong Cup is just going to get stronger and stronger,” Carpenter said.
“A European pattern has developed and they understand the benefit of running once before they go in to the Melbourne Cup, and the timing of Geelong Cup works for them.”
Carpenter says the Geelong Cup is seen as an easier introduction to Australian racing.
“There is a view that the Caulfield Cup on a turning track and a high pressure race means that a number of them are treading what is becoming a well-worn path down to Geelong and in to the Melbourne Cup,” Carpenter said.
The Geelong Cup remains a Group Three race and can’t be upgraded while existing Group Two races are all meeting the required criteria.
Carpenter said Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup was one of the strongest of recent years.
“Last year we had the Caulfield Cup winner, the first two from the Cox Plate, and a number of Derby and Oaks winners in the race, while this year the race has been made as great as it is by the international participation and the quality of that, including Americain coming back to defend his title.
“It was a tremendously competitive race and what it showed today, it is the staying championship of the world.
“It should stay a handicap race because we have seen horses from all parts of the globe, with all different form lines, come together in an extraordinarily competitive handicap.”
AAP TURF
