11/12/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Villiers Stakes day

A bumper ten race card has been set down for Randwick this Saturday for Villiers Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Villiers Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Villiers Stakes

2 Casino Lord (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Cody Morgan trained gelding that comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since October 16 when resuming here and was very good late from off the speed when just under two lengths away from Ten Bells. The break between runs I find interesting but I think he has the talent to win this.

15 London Gal (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is a short course specialist that is back in really good form after tapering away last prep. Scott Collings has this girl going super, her latest run seeing her bolt up at Gundagai during the Snake Gully Carnival. Maps well from the draw and getting her toe in will be no issue.

18 In Spades (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is the sleeper if the breaks go her way. Ran over 900m last Saturday at Newcastle and warmed to the task late after getting a fair way back in the run in a really good effort behind Rupertaar. If she can get luck from a tricky inside gate, she’s in the mix.

3 Media Starguest (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) looks ready to win for Ron Quinton. Ran over 1800m at Rosehill two weeks ago where he had the suck run behind the speed and was there to win, but Lord Ardmore was just too tough on the day and is a horse on an upward spiral, so I think that form does read well for this.

1 Travest (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) is a nutcase upstairs still it seems. He doesn’t know how to put a race away but no denying the talent he has. Looked the winner at Kembla last time but couldn’t quite get there when second to local hope and the well supported Divine Breath. Up to 1600m I do like. Just needs to do everything right.

9 Trust The Process (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) has returned in good order for Bryce Heys. Definite pass mark fresh behind Too Much Caviar. Then went to a Midway at Kembla where he had specking at odds and ran up to that with a good effort from off the speed behind Divine Breath. Third up, hard fit, he can win.

9 Bacchanalia (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) looks hard to beat for James Cummings. He was down to run at Rosehill two weeks back but was kept on ice for the Canterbury night meeting and he justified the weight of support, making a mess of his rivals in a commanding display. Off that, he can measure up here for sure.

2 Dragonstone (Bet Now: $2.25 TOP ODDS) is a progressive three year old for Mark Newnham that could well put his hand up for the Magic Millions. Electric first up win at Kembla Grange where he was smashed in betting and under Schiller, he was far too good. A win here and he’ll book his ticket for the Gold Coast.

5 Lady Banff (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is a quality mare for Matty Dunn that resumes. She can be hit and miss at times but towards the end of last prep, she was starting to get some consistency when sent back to Queensland. Interesting she resumes here, but has trialled up really well, so watch the market.

Going to have a throw at the stumps with different form, which lies with 8 Deniliquin (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS). He was down to run at Warwick Farm on Wednesday in what looked a thin staying race, but was scratched instead runs here. He is getting better with racing and the trip will be no issue. Despite inferior form, he’s heading in the right direction, down in the weights…I think he can be dangerous.

1 Mightybeel (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) is yet to be tested at 2400m but is racing like it will suit him. He closed off well in the ATC Cup a fortnight back but had to settle for a game second to impressive winner Polly Grey. The 2400m is the unknown with him but he’s in the right camp to find out.

9 Merlinite (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is in a similar boat to Deniliquin. Scratched from an easier race on Wednesday to be saved for this. She ran under the lights at Canterbury last time out and tried hard, just missing out on the win in a tight go. Not sure she wins, but one for multiples.

2 Boldinho (Bet Now: $2.30) is the safe option. Maher/Eustace trained colt that debuted two weeks ago in the Merson Cooper at Caulfield and loomed to win but had to settle for a narrow second to Ebhaar, who is easy to tie in here given she comfortably held Calgary Stampede in a trial, so from the good draw, Bowman on, Boldinho is the one to beat.

4 Calgary Stampede (Bet Now: $10.00) looks a talented colt for Team Snowden. Market loved him on debut at Rosehill at the midweeks when put into a plum spot behind the speed and despite taking a few strides to wind into his work, he was quite strong late and winning nicely. Fast run 1000m looks ideal and should appreciate give in the track based on breeding.

8 Lord Of The Hunter (Bet Now: $51.00) hasn’t been too bad in two career outings for Nathan Doyle. Latest run came in the Max Lees Classic at Newcastle where he kept finding the line, chipping away and was good in defeat when fourth. The race, as a whole, looks plain, so that’s a query, but he has hard fitness/experience.

3 Incredulous Dream (Bet Now: $4.20) for me. Maher/Eustace trained mare that was one of the eye catchers of the meeting first up at Kembla when back in the run and working home strongly late when second to dominant winner Queen Bellissimo. Fitter, she looks hard to beat.

4 Irish Angel (Bet Now: $3.20) is such a dynamic horse. Can she translate to deeper into a prep. Resumed at Rosehill and she was arrogant the way she put them away from off the speed. She normally tapers off after her resumption so will be interesting to see how she goes here.

9 Cloudy (Bet Now: $8.50) looks suited here. James Cummings trained filly that resumed at Rosehill two weeks ago when attempting to lead throughout but first up since the Autumn, her condition just gave way late when third to Irish Angel. Will there be second up syndrome or will she bounce off it? Market will be the guide but hoping it’s the latter.

10 Snapdancer (Bet Now: $4.50) is a quality mare for the Maher/Eustace camp that resumes, I dare say with eyes towards the Magic Millions. She resumed around this time last year on Ballarat Cup Day where she was a very sharp winner and smashed the clock for the day. Trialled well leading into her prep here and should be strong at the end.

1 Eleven Eleven (Bet Now: $4.40) should eat up the 1200m en route to the Magic Millions. He comes into this in winning form after sprouting wings late to win The Warra at Kembla three weeks ago. Ran a beauty here fresh behind Southern Lad so he’s back and he does have class on his side.

2 Southern Lad (Bet Now: $6.50) should be suited up to 1200m. Strong first up winner here on Cup Day before going to the Starlight at Rosehil and he just had no chance the way the track played so want to be very forgiving of that run behind Vulpine. Much better placed here and can bounce back.

14 Criaderas (Bet Now: $9.50) could be the forgotten horse here and is a horse I am warming to from an each way perspective. I had something on him in The Gong and on face value, I thought he was just fair, but looking back, he was excellent. It was a fast run race, he was a month between wins and did make up ground. Arguably should have won this race last year when luckless as a $3.90 favourite. $21/$6 all in I was happy to take because he is the one with upside.

6 Ellsberg (Bet Now: $5.50) has been up a little while but is flying. Had the pattern in his corner in the Festival, but he still had to take advantage of it and that he did, winning quite comfortably. Can he stretch his brilliance to a true mile, which the Randwick mile on wet ground will certainly be. If so, he’s hard to beat.

17 Brutality (Bet Now: $7.00) hasn’t won this prep, but he’s flying for Joe Pride. He had excuses last Saturday at Rosehill. Just got too far back in a race dominated by those on speed but warmed to the task late in a good effort. Wet track yes, fast run mile yes, down in the weights…I think he only runs well.

8 Lackeen (Bet Now: $3.40) has returned in super order. Brilliant steer from Olly saw him win fresh on Cup Day at Flemington. Then went to Kembla three weeks ago where he just lost sight of the bunny but was good late behind Steely. If he can sit a pair or two closer in the run, he’ll take beating.

9 Equation (Bet Now: $4.00) looked gone, but I think the Kembla effort just proved that he only seems to go on ground when there is give in it. He closed off with real purpose and was good in defeat when second to Steely. With improvement off that, he’s got to be respected, especially with a wet track.

3 Mubariz (Bet Now: $5.50) looks to be in for a good prep. Resumed two weeks back in the Festival Stakes at Rosehill and was good late from the back albeit never a threat to Ellsberg but given the pattern of the day, he was excellent. If the track is playing fairly, he’ll take beating I’d suggest.

6 Dynamic Impact (Bet Now: $4.80) has come back in super order for Bjorn Baker. Resumed with a strong win with a lightweight at Rosehill. Then went to Kembla where he went 4.5kg in weight but got J Mac, who had him in the right spot near the speed and once he pushed the button, away he went and he was dominant. You’d think there is more to come so with that in mind, he’s the one for me.

Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for 5 Brookspire (Bet Now: $1.85). Was fresh at Rosehill two weeks ago when wide and doing work. Was entitled to knock up but she kept chipping away and was good in defeat behind Expat. Gets a better set up this time around and is hard to beat.

9 Blesk (Bet Now: $7.00) is flying this time in for John O’Shea. Lovely ride from McEvoy saw him win two back on the Kenso track. Then went to Rosehill and he was excellent given the slow tempo set by the eventual winner Zoushack, closing off with purpose to run second. More genuine tempo here, he can bounce back.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Boldinho

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Media Starguest

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 14 Criaderas

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 10

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 7, 14, 15, 17, 18

Leg Three: 3, 8, 9, 12

Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 9

$50 Investment = 13.02% of the dividend if successful