25/2/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Sandown, Blue Diamond Stakes day

A bumper nine race program has been set down for Sandown Lakeside on Saturday, headlined by the Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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6 Right You Are (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripper for the Maher/Eustace camp, he has the right racing pattern, he’s hard fit and in form. He was a strong winner over 1800m here three weeks ago when on speed and was there to be beaten but he found when required, and ended up drawing clear to win quite well. Clearly this is a harder assignment but with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

5 Saracen Knight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Danny O’Brien. Eight years of age but he seems to be getting better with age. He ended the Spring prep on a high, winning the Ansett Classic before a strong win in the Hebert Power. Just one trial to get ready for the return, but first up at 2100m signals some level of intent and will be out of trouble on speed. Hard to beat fresh.

2 Amade (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise in trip for Phillip Stokes. He ran behind Right You Are three weeks back where he lumped 61kg and was back near last throughout, failing to come on, finishing tailed off last behind the in form Maher/Eustace gelding. Like him up to 2100m and his very best is more than good enough to run a much improved race.

#SF was strong last Saturday at Flemington and I’ll bank on that continuing here with 8 Call Di (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Quality filly for the Ryan/Alexiou camp that resumed on the Kenso in a maiden where she looked a moral on paper and under a confident steer from Nash, she was too good for them in a good return. Can settle on speed, she has good upside and she will be strong at the end.

1 She’s Licketysplit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise in trip for Andrew Forsman. She trialled a touch on the dour side I thought in NZ prior to resuming in the Kevin Hayes and she raced like she trialled. Just lacked change up speed but was good to the line behind Rich Fortune. Love her up to 1400m and she does have the runs on the board/class compared to most engaged here.

2 Laced Up Heels (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. WA filly for Luke Fernie that resumed two weeks ago in the Kevin Hayes and I thought was very good from near last on the turn, finishing 1.6L away from Rich Fortune in a pleasing return. Like her up in trip, she can settle much closer in the run and still be effective late. One of the leading contenders in an open race.

3 Espiona (Bet Now:  $SP.00) produced a sparkling win at Flemington on Oaks Day 2021 and that is the only time she has been in Melbourne so returning, that is why she is on top. To the eye, she had every chance first up behind Quantico, but she was nearer the inside and that wasn’t the spot to be for the meeting. If she runs up to that Oaks Day effort here, she wins…can you trust her to do that?

1 Barb Raider (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks extremely hard to beat. Jerome Hunter trained mare that resumes, having not raced since The Invitation when down the track behind Promise Of Success, seemingly not getting the best of steers from Will Price. Trial/jumpout work has been very good, she has class, she can sit on speed and is a good fresh horse. Hard to beat.

7 Forbidden City (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up a while but is holding her form superbly. Three weeks between runs since contesting the Bellmaine where she got back in an on pace dominated affair so while she was never a threat, I thought she found the line well late when third to Wrote To Arataki, who ran super in a hot race last Saturday, so the form reads super and like her up to 1400m.

I think the key to 4 Spacewalk (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is to not restrain him. They restrained two back and he didn’t finish the race off at all behind Mariamia. He raced at Rosehill again and Reece Jones let him roll on speed. He was entitled to knock up but he found, kicked and safely held his rivals at bay to win impressively. If that is the way

3 Rich Fortune (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is putting together a good little record for Jerome Hunter. Lovely ride from Williams saw her win the Kevin Hayes, saving ground between runners before slicing her way through the field and drove hard late to win impressively. That was her first run since December 24 so she has good room for improvement and the rise to 1200m should be fine.

1 Sebonack (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned pretty well for Team Hawkes. He resumed a few weeks back at Randwick where he had the dream run in transit behind the speed and presented to charge late but couldn’t quite get there when second to stablemate Remarque. Fitter and up to 1200m, off that first up effort, he has to rate as one of the hardest to beat.

8 Ausbred Rising Sun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very progressive three year old for Brad Widdup that has the 1800m run under the belt. Narrow second two back over the mile at Warwick Farm before going to Newcastle and the 1850m where he took a while to get there but once he did, he gapped them and was impressive. Some of these have eyes on bigger races whereas he is up and running, mapping ideally.

3 Hennessy Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up a little while but he’s flying for Peter Moody and is hard to beat against these. Ran over 1800m a few weeks ago at Sandown against his own age and what impressed me is that he got stronger as the race went on, drawing clear late to win well. Could have run against the older horses last Saturday but instead saves himself for this and is one of the key chances.

11 Yasuke (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is heading in the right direction for Chris Waller. Solid debut win here on the Hillside track before going to Moonee Valley where he wasn’t entirely suited on the tight track but stuck on well enough in defeat to finish third to Diamond Model. He’s racing like 1800m will suit and overall, this race is a bit on the thin side.

3 Numerian (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality gelding that resumes for Annabel Neasham. He’s had the two trials this time in to get ready for the return, having not raced since the Melbourne Cup when down the track, so at least there is a decent grounding for him for the return, and potentially gets a soft run on speed, which will be the spot to be I think for this meeting.

Great to see 1 Gold Trip (Bet Now:  $SP.00) back at the races. The Melbourne Cup winner resumes and he looks like he has come back in really good order and while 1800m on a firmer deck isn’t exactly an ideal set up for him, you can’t substitute class and he has that in spades compared to most of these. Class alone gets him home? Potentially.

6 Il Paradiso (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the more fascinating runners on the program. He hasn’t raced since the 2019 Melbourne Cup where I think most would agree that if he had clear air late, he wins instead of a narrow third to Vow And Declare. His recent jumpout…he looked like a camel, but he has class and the stable wouldn’t persist if he wasn’t showing something at home.

8 Don Corleone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the talent under the hood to take this out. Both starts have come at Randwick, producing an outstanding performance to win on debut before being beaten as a short priced favourite last time, but with clear excuses. He was squeezed at the start and made his run nearer the inside, which was quicksand for the day, so forgive and forget. Grand Final trainers, Grand Final race, he has to be given another chance.

5 Brave Halo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the only horse I want from the Blue Diamond Preludes. The WA colt resumed in the Boys Prelude and he should have won. He had zero luck in the straight when full of running under Olly and pretty much went to the line under a hold behind Barber. Give him clear air, let him roll early and build the revs to give him every chance. Hard to beat.

11 Party For Two (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very genuine filly from Queensland. She tried her guts out in the Prelude for the Girls but couldn’t quite get there when second to Exploring. The way she kept finding the line, I think 1200m is fine for her, she’ll be on speed and has the hard fitness under the belt. Must for exotics in what is a very open race.

2 Alligator Blood (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a high class animal for GaiBott that resumes. He really came of age in the second half of 2022, stamping himself as a proper WFA star, with wins in the Underwood and Champions Mile. Wasn’t ready for the CF Orr so resumes here and his trial work indicates he’s going well. Should land on speed comfortably and from there, prove hard to run down.

1 I’m Thunderstruck… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is it near D-Day? He is a high class horse, but his only win since the 2021 Golden Eagle was the Makybe Diva where he nailed Alligator Blood on the peg. He resumed in the CF Orr and was there to win, but again, he wanted to lay in badly and gave himself no chance. IMO, jury is out on him, but he’s too good of a horse to dismiss…yet.

3 Mr Brightside (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned in super order. He resumed in the CF Orr and was very good from last, finding the line with real purpose late in the piece behind Jacquinot. He can settle much closer in the run and now he’s had the run under the belt, he can settle on speed and should that eventuate, gee I think he’ll run a big race.

The more I look at this race and how hard they go in front, the more I think 3 Masked Crusader (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an outstanding each way gamble. You look at his form. For 18 months he has taken on the best sprinters, and has measured up on occasion, but hasn’t won. This is a second/third tier quality Group l sprint, he has a booming finish and has these on toast re class. I am more than happy to back each way.

8 Uncommon James (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the big improver from the Rubiton IMO. O’Dea/Hoysted trained sprinter that resumed off a six month break and was very good in defeat, only getting bloused late by a high quality three year old in Lofty Strike. He’ll take enormous benefit from that run and generally with this stable, they improve big time with the run. Hard to beat.

If 5 King Of Sparta (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is going to win a Group l, this is his perfect chance. He continued his love affair with the Magic Millions, taking out the Sprint in dominant fashion. Tick over trial was really good and I can see him sitting back off the stupid speed and launching at the end. He rises big time in grade/depth, but he is a gun dry track horse.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 8 Ausbred Rising Sun

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 2 Alligator Blood

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 3 Masked Crusader

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6

Leg Two: 5, 8, 11, 12, 17

Leg Three: 1, 2

Leg Four: 3, 5, 8, 10

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