Racing on New Year’s Eve is at Flemington with the running of the Bagot Handicap and Kensington Stakes both at listed level the feature events.
The track is rated a Good 4 and the rail is out 3 metres for the entire circuit. Expecting a fair surface but predicted southerly winds could see leaders with an advantage around the circle course (1400m+) and outside barriers to the fore up the straight course.
NUMBERS GAME
Gavin Bedggood is in hot form in recent weeks with 10 winners from his last 50 starters at the races. Certainly, worth keeping an eye given he has a few chances in the market.
| Metric | Value |
| Rides | 50 |
| Winners | 10 |
| Winning Strike Rate | 20% |
| Average Starting Price | $10.86 |
| Wins vs Expected | 1.82 vs 1 |
| Return On Investment | +71.7% |
Bedggood’s Top Chances
Race 4- 7 Diwali
Race 5- 4 Furosshi
Race 6- 4 Castellar
KEY PLAYS
Race 1 – 3 Somewhere
First up run at Caulfield had plenty of merit when finding the line well weaving through traffic behind Taken and then struck a wet track and odd run race at Ballarat 2nd up at 1600m and was probably found wanting the last bit. Should be improved for that fitness wise and meets a much weaker race here.
He can roll forward here and with Logan Bates claim of 2kgs beneficial he looks a leading player. Bit of a D-Day for him as needs another complete performance, as he has more potential than he’s been able to deliver thus far but feel now 3rd up and in the right race he’s a good gamble to find out.
ODDS 💰: $4.40 @ swiftbet
Race 5 – 3 Mystic Reign
Recent Jump Out’s from her have been very good at Cranbourne, including one where she finished 2nd to Christmas Stakes winner Hedged. Personally think it’s the best I’ve seen her at the trials and given she’s only lightly raced and in a top stable, can certainly make a case we could see her elevate again this prep.
She’s a winner down the straight before and leading apprentice Logan Bates taking the ride is a positive. Thought she was over the odds against nice fillies Miss Ole and Faraway Dream, in what is a hot race.
ODDS 💰: $5.00 @ swiftbet
Race 6 – 3 Salsa Fellow
Liked this guy’s most recent Jump Out at Avoca when finding the line strongly after being a long way back. His sectionals late there would’ve been very slick and that effort indicates he’s comeback in good order and is ready to fire here fresh.
His form last prep through the likes of Soft Love, Scampi and Runlikenencryption stand out for this and if he can replicate something like his best, he’ll be hard to hold out.
Think he’s drawn the right part of the track here and he does like the straight course.
Salsa Fellow bursts through along the inside running rail, claiming the lead with moments to spare 😮💨@HDwyerRacing @decbates pic.twitter.com/A1E4OJsy97
— Racing.com (@Racing) June 7, 2025
ODDS 💰: $7.50 @ swiftbet
ROUGHIE
Race 8 – 6 Strike Gold
Good effort first up when back but working home well in to 5th, when running the 2nd quickest last 200m of the day.
Think he’s better suited to the straight course here 2nd up and love the booking of the in-form Harry Coffey. Big price in early markets, worth something each-way.