18/9/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Newcastle, Newcastle Cup day

Newcastle will host their best race day on Friday where it is Newcastle Cup Day, the first of their two day Carnival. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Newcastle Cup 🏆: View the Field for the Newcastle Cup

I like the placement by Kim Waugh here with 6 Reaching (Bet Now: $1.65). The mare is a blueblood and Arrowfield would love to get some blacktype with her, but IMO she’s limited and they have to take her through her grades. Showed some ticker to win the maiden here last time out and is looking like a mare that will appreciate more ground. The one to beat.

5 Miss Japan (Bet Now: $6.00) is a mare who has got progression and upside. Didn’t handle the bottomless track two back at Goulburn but found firmer footing at Wyong and under a lovely ride from Latham, the daughter of Deep Impact was too good. On breeding, should eat up 1850m and looks the main threat to Reaching, perhaps the only threat.

Up to 1850m I find interesting with 2 Midi (Bet Now: $26.00). This gelding is by Monaco Consul and is getting out to a staying trip for the first time in a while. Had market support when racing over the mile at Scone last time out but the tempo wasn’t hot, he got keen in the run and while he made ground late, he never really threatened. Worth a look at odds.

2 Yangtze Rapids (Bet Now: $1.90) needs to win this to warrant going down a path towards the Spring Champion and I think he will get away with it. Chris Waller trained three year old who was absolutely enormous in defeat when resuming at Warwick Farm, making a sustained run from the back off a slow speed, just missing out on the win. If he’s within range on the turn, he’s too good.

Think the rise to 1400m will really suit 1 Savvy Legend (Bet Now: $18.00) for the Les Bridge team. Debuted over 1250m here where he was unwanted in betting but I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off behind Rock The Bells. Off that, the run to 1400m should be ideal and the stable do generally get them better with racing.

5 Qualis (Bet Now: $15.00) is knocking on the door to break her maiden tag. Has been close up in both career outings, the latest at Kembla over 1300m when leading and giving a really good kick under Magorrian but was pipped near the peg, still a tidy effort in defeat. Lands near the front here and will take some beating.

3 True Faith (Bet Now: $2.30) has her share of talent for the Kris Lees camp. Had trialled up well prior to her resumption over 1300m here where she got back to near last in the run but I loved her finale and was really good in defeat behind the well performed Centimental. Up to 1400m is a big tick and if she can sit closer in the run, she’ll take some beating.

6 Covent Garden (Bet Now: $7.00) will always have eyes on her given she’s a half sister to Winx. On face value, thought she was a bit plain fresh at Warwick Farm, but I’m putting that down to sitting on speed, which I’m not sure is her go. Think she’ll be much better with a bunny to chase and this looks a winnable maiden as the depth, overall, isn’t strong.

If there is a complete blowout, it’s 8 Himiko (Bet Now: $21.00) for the Scott O’Halloran team. Deep Impact filly that debuted here over 1300m when unwanted in betting, starting $101, but I think you could make a case she should have fought the finish it out. No luck at all in the straight and pretty much went around like a barrier trial. Looks like she wants 2000m+, but has talent I think.

4 Akasaki (Bet Now: $9.00) for me. He’s a ripper for Stephen Jones who is over two weeks between runs since racing over 1000m at Warwick Farm when closing off strongly from the back when second to impressive Mr Mosaic. He’s a two time winner at 900m including at this track, and with the speed engaged, he’ll be strong late.

5 Junglized (Bet Now: $9.00) has the class factor to carry him a long way here. He comes through the Mr Mosaic race from September 2 at Warwick Farm. He sat near the speed throughout and tried hard, but was clearly no match for the dominant and in form winner. He’s a short course horse and is 1/1 at the 900m trip.

11 Patriot (Bet Now: $23.00) is a knockout chance here. His two runs back from a spell haven’t been too bad, albeit in easier company. Last run came last Monday at Ballina when on a shifty track and worked home quite strongly without much room. Firmer the better for him and sitting off a brutal tempo, he’ll get last look.

Bit to play out here with dual acceptors and whatnot, but I love the way 9 Just Thinkin’ (Bet Now: $6.50) toughed it out to win at Randwick just under two weeks ago at this trip. Sat on speed, controlled things and despite being challenged in the straight, he found plenty under pressure and was too good. Think he can control from the front and prove hard to run down.

6 Rock (Bet Now: $3.70) won this race last year and I think he’s on track to repeat the dose. Resumed in the Tramway when back in the run and I liked the way he found the line late behind Dreamforce. Should appreciate a truly run 1500m and if he’s within range on the turn, he’s certainly good enough to win. Hard to beat.

7 Miss Fabulass (Bet Now: $12.00) can be a big improver here. Kris Lees trained mare that resumed in the Mona Lisa at Wyong where she lumped topweight and I don’t think much went right for her in a total forgive behind Asiago. Gets really good weight relief here and firmer the better for her, so think she can bounce back hard.

Kris Lees would dearly love to win this race and in recent memory, I don’t think he’s had a horse line up in the race as good as 1 Mugatoo (Bet Now: $2.15) and all things being equal, he should win this and cement his spot as one of the leading contenders for the Metropolitan. Dominant win in the Premiers Cup, aided by a lovely steer from McEvoy. Nearly a case of any price.

I still feel ill after 9 The Lord Mayor (Bet Now: $9.00) in the Wyong Cup. How he didn’t win it I do not know. Perfect ride from J Mac and looked all over a winner, but Paths Of Glory got the dream split and was too good, just. The Lord Mayor is going well and is suited up in trip. Does he have the class to beat Mugatoo? Not sure.

I highly doubt 3 Azuro (Bet Now: $61.00) wins, but for wider multiples, I’d certainly include him. He comes through the Premiers Cup where he was first up and while he was well held by Mugatoo, I thought he was far from disgraced in defeat. The rise to 2300m looks perfect for him…good enough to win? Doubt it, but he is a first four hope.

8 Yamazaki (Bet Now: $9.50) looks one of a couple of good things on the program. Loved the way she found the line first up behind Sweet Deal before going to the Mona Lisa at Wyong. Bossy rode her far too negatively and she had too much to do, but closed off with purpose. 1400m third up on a firm deck, gee she looks the one to beat.

1 Miss Siska (Bet Now: $8.50) is a beauty that was with Grahame Begg but now finds herself with the Matty Smith team. She’s a mare who is an absolute bomb when produced fresh, as we saw in the Autumn when winning the Carlyon Cup and Peter Young. Fresh is best for this girl and her trials leading in have been encouraging.

17 Regimental Band (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Kris Lees trained mare that should get some respect despite a severe class/depth rise. Resumed in a 64 on Wyong Cup Day and class got her home in an excellent return to the track. She’s always promised to be blacktype quality and 1400m on her home track off a win, she’s in the mix.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Yangtze Rapids

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Mugatoo

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 4 Akasaki

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Four Through To Seven):

Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 11

Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 7, 9

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 1, 8, 11, 17

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful