1/3/2025 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Australian Guineas day

Ten races have been set down for Flemington on Saturday for Australian Guineas Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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5 Cavalry Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a pretty good filly for Tom Dabernig and given the connections, they would be desperate to get a blacktype win. Her victory at Flemington last time was sharp, sitting on speed and was trucking before being clicked up and away she went to win and win well. Confident she takes beating against these.

1 Shining Smile (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty at this level and at the short course for Team Hayes. He was on speed throughout in the Talindert and was hailed as the winner but had to settle for a dead heat with Tentyris, who went within a lip of winning the Blue Diamond, so the form reads very well and back to 1000m is a big tick.

8 Excenia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Team McEvoy trained filly that is on debut but hasn’t been seen at the trials/jumpouts since Jan 29 at Geelong when a sharp winner and looked a potential Blue Diamond candidate. Whether there has been a setback, not sure, but she has talent.

2 Revelare (Bet Now:  $SP.00) just looks so well placed, again. He has put together a sequence of wins, the latest being two weeks ago where he looked in a bit of trouble early but got clear air at the right time and finished with purpose late to win and win well. Hard to knock the way he’s racing and takes beating once again.

10 Steel Run (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Mick Kent trained four year old that resumes. He hasn’t raced since July 6 when a dominant winner over 2500m here, getting better as the race went on. Dodged the Spring and his jumpout work has been quite good. If he’s the fresh blood, he can win.

4 Wineglass Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He ran over the mile at Randwick last time when back near last in the run and made up some headway without threatening behind the very promising Yorkshire. Hard fit, 2000m, he’ll run a positive race.

7 She’s Got Pizzazz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. This filly is first up, having not raced since the Twilight Glow in the Spring at Caulfield when a dominant winner over 1400m. Keen to see what level she can reach and her jumpout work has been more than encouraging.

2 Midwest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) lands on speed and could pinch a first four spot. He was kept safe in betting three weeks back at Randwick and tried hard but just couldn’t quite see it through late behind Shezanalister. Fitter, good racing style, his best is good enough to be dangerous.

6 Perilous Fighter (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate getting back up to 1000m after racing over 955m at The Valley three weeks back when off speed, chasing and couldn’t quite go on with it behind Unflinching. Back up in trip I like and his best is good enough to be a threat.

5 Elouyou (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented son of So You Think that resumes for Scott Cameron. He is first up, having not raced since Aug 17 at Caulfield when placing over 1400m behind the Stakes class mare Running By. He has jumped out like a rocket for the return and looks to have found a winnable race for the return.

10 Top Calibre… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) just how good is he? Alex Rae trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since the Spring when winning 3/3 to start and every run/win looked like he was destined for better races. Good test here, but he could be a rocket. Market watch.

4 Master Montaro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver for Team Hayes. He resumed at Caulfield Heath where he just looked in need of the run and ran accordingly behind Chinqui. Good upside/improvement to come and likes the straight track. Can win without surprising.

I am a big, big fan of 7 Scillato (Bet Now:  $SP.00) and confident she can measure up here. 2/2 to start her career, firstly winning with arrogance on debut at Seymour before being much the same at Bendigo. She looks Stakes class for sure and despite the rise in grade/depth here, I am keen on her prospects.

2 Clean Energy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had an interrupted career since the Brisbane Winter where she won 2/2 and last start did beat star filly Lady Shenandoah. She’s had three trials to get ready for the return, so there looks to be intent and gets B Shinn.

6 Madrina (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one that could pinch a first four spot. Market said she wasn’t there to play when resuming in the Peter Le Grand and ran accordingly when down the track behind Arabian Summer. Thought she had jumped out well prior so don’t dismiss her.

10 Titan Of Choice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order for Peter Gelagotis. He resumed a fortnight back at Flemington when off speed but was trucking before angling for clear air and launched late when second to Bossy Nic. Fitter, he takes beating against this lot.

5 Name Dropper (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Richard Laming and with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance. He was a track/distance winner two back before going to Sandown where he led throughout and credit to him, he was there to be beaten but he found and was too good. He rates highly.

1 Le Ferrari (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is getting towards D Day I say for Team Hayes. He was four weeks between runs when racing here two weeks back, getting a decent run off the speed and presented to threaten but just whacked to the line late behind Is It Me. Firmer footing, upside/improvement, he has the set up to run an improved race.

4 Zardozi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to the mile and more importantly, love returning to Flemington. She resumed two weeks ago in the Apollo at Randwick where the race shape was against her but she kept finding the line and was pretty good in defeat I thought. Fitter and up in trip, class on her side…I think good luck beating her.

1 Attrition (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to the mile after resuming in the Elms. He got too far back in the run and while he was never a winning threat, I loved the way he closed off in defeat behind Rise At Dawn, clocking good late splits. He can settle closer, firmer deck…only runs well.

9 Poison Chalice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with his best. He ran in the Elms a fortnight back where the hot tempo didn’t quite work in his corner and he just battled late behind Rise At Dawn. Hopefully with a more genuine tempo this time around, he can run an improved race.

1 Goldrush Guru (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Barrier trial first up in the Durbridge before going to the CS Hayes when ridden with far more intent and he ran a much improved race in defeat behind Sepals. The rise to 1600m, firmer footing, hard fit, class…has to be respected.

I think 5 Henlein (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a big, big improver from the CS Hayes. It was a day where the track was quite shifty and either you handled the track or not. He didn’t, but he wasn’t alone. He had trialled very well leading in and now up to 1600m, firmer deck, I think he can bounce back big time.

3 Feroce (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat. He resumed two weeks back in the CS Hayes where he looked the one in the run but he didn’t fire when asked for the effort, with Billy Egan saying as much post race, that he didn’t handle the conditions. Much better on top of the ground and he has class in his own right.

13 El Morzillo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has class and that is going to carry her a long way towards victory. She resumed several weeks ago in The Sunlight where she got a fair way out of her ground but worked home well enough in defeat behind impressive winner Private Harry. Fitter and up to 1200m, good tick over trial, I think she’s in this up to her ears.

7 Reserve Bank (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Price/Kent trained colt that resumes. He hasn’t been sighted since the Gothic in the Spring where he wasn’t 100% happy on the wet track and struggled late behind Lofty Arch. Firm deck for the return and his jumpout work has been quite strong. Confident he can resume a winner.

1 Odinson (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be better for the first up run, which came at Caulfield Heath where he lobbed on speed and seemingly had his chance but just failed to finish the job behind the in form Chinqui, who ran okay in defeat last Saturday. Back to his own age, fitter, he can threaten.

14 Ocean Beyond (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given respect. He ran a fortnight back in the Elms when clearly outclassed on paper but he ran a beauty in defeat I thought behind the lethal Rise At Dawn. That was his first run in four weeks so with upside/improvement to come, he’s right in the mix.

11 Ziryab (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard fit and racing really well at the moment. He put together a couple of strong wins on the bounce before going to this track/distance a fortnight back when on speed and seemed to have his chance but just died on the run late. Firmer deck, he can bounce back.

10 Gregolimo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver up in trip. He resumed over 1400m here two weeks back where he was a rank outsider in betting and ran accordingly when down the track behind Is It Me. The rise to 1600m is ideal, as is firmer footing, and he had jumped out well enough prior so include in exotics.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 5 Elouyou

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 13 El Morzillo

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 4 Zardozi

 

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 4, 9, 10, 11

Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 7

Leg Three: 7, 13

Leg Four: 10, 11, 14, 15

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful.